01-28-2020, 11:42 PM
*** 29-Jan-20 World View -- Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Donald Trump offers his 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan
****
![[Image: g200128b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200128b.jpg)
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the new Mideast peace plan (AFP)
Here we go again.
President Donald Trump, in a joint White House celebration with
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced a new Mideast
peace plan.
I've seen how this works too many times. International politicians
pressure the United States president to come up with a peace plan,
saying that there will never be peace in the Mideast without White
House "leadership." But as soon as the president offers a peace plan,
those same international politicians slam the plan to make sure it's
never implemented.
So Trump's 181 page Mideast peace plan has the following features:
In May 2017, Trump met with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud
Abbas, and they agreed to work together to reach a historic peace deal
between Israelis and Palestinians. ( "4-May-17 World View -- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks"
)
At the time, Trump said, "I look forward to welcoming [Abbas] back as
a great marker of progress and, ultimately, toward the signing of a
document with the Israelis and with Israel toward peace. We want to
create peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We will get it
done."
Abbas responded as follows: "Mr. President, we believe that we are
capable and able to bring about success to our efforts because,
Mr. President, you have the determination and you have the desire to
see it become to fruition and to become successful. And we,
Mr. President, inshallah, God willing, we are coming into a new
opportunity, a new horizon that would enable us to bring about peace
in that regard. ... Mr. President, it’s about time for Israel to end
its occupation of our people and of our land after 50 years. We are
the only remaining people in the world that still live under
occupation."
It was pretty clear from just those two statements that it was never
going to work. Now that Trump's peace agreement was being announced,
Abbas refused to attend the ceremony.
His statement this time was far more colorful: "Trump is a dog and the
son of a dog. They called me from Washington, and I did not pick up
the phone. ... I said no, and I will continue to say no."
However, ambassadors from three Arab countries -- Oman, Bahrain, and
United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- did show up at the meeting.
The UAE ambassador tweeted that the UAE believes Palestinians and
Israelis can achieve lasting peace and genuine coexistence with the
support of the international community.
Britain's Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said,"This is clearly a
serious proposal, reflecting extensive time and effort. Only the
leaders of Israel and the Palestinian territories can determine
whether these proposals can meet the needs and aspirations of the
people they represent.
However, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhr said, "Trump's statement about
Jerusalem is nonsense and Jerusalem will always be a land for the
Palestinians ... The Palestinians will confront this deal and
Jerusalem will remain a Palestinian land."
Israel's Security Minister Naftali Bennett said in response to the
plan, "We will not allow for Israel, under any circumstances, to
recognize a Palestinian state."
I heard several Palestinian protests complain particularly about the
tunnels and bridges that are supposed to connect the two Palestinian
territories, saying that these were extremely offensive.
Later, Mahmoud Abbas said, "After the nonsense that we heard today we
say a thousand no’s to the Deal of The Century."
There's no way that this Rube Goldberg peace proposal is going to
survive.
****
**** The Mideast peace process fantasy
****
As I wrote in my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1,
2003, when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to
Peace," which described the details of a two-state solution, that will
never happen. Generational Dynamics predicts that the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs
would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
According to the CIA World Factbook, the average age of the population
in Gaza is 18, and in the West Bank is 21. Most of the population in
the Palestinian territories are children -- often children with guns.
They call themselves the "Oslo Generation," because they were born
after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to bring peace to the
Mideast, but have accomplished nothing.
Now think of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), who is 29 years old, who
says one incredibly idiotic thing every day, and yet is effectively
running the Democratic Party.
The point is that even if Mahmoud Abbas and other regional Arab
leaders wanted to agree to Trump's peace plan, they wouldn't be
supported by Oslo Generation Palestinians on the street.
This is the fallacy the media and politicians all make. They assume
that the leader of a country can make a decision, and everyone will
follow.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by
masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. So in this case, the even if Abbas signed
this peace deal, it would be meaningless.
The whole idea of a "Mideast peace process" and a "two-state solution"
is a complete fantasy. It's never going to happen.
As long-time readers know, the Generational Dynamics prediction is
that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews vs
Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.
The exact scenario can't be predicted, but tensions across the Mideast
continue to grow.
Sources:
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mideast, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Gaza, West Bank, Jerusalem, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt,
Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Dominic Raab, Hamas, Sami Abu Zuhr,
Naftali Bennett, Mahmoud Abbas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Donald Trump offers his 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan
- The Mideast peace process fantasy
****
**** Donald Trump offers his 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan
****
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the new Mideast peace plan (AFP)
Here we go again.
President Donald Trump, in a joint White House celebration with
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced a new Mideast
peace plan.
I've seen how this works too many times. International politicians
pressure the United States president to come up with a peace plan,
saying that there will never be peace in the Mideast without White
House "leadership." But as soon as the president offers a peace plan,
those same international politicians slam the plan to make sure it's
never implemented.
So Trump's 181 page Mideast peace plan has the following features:
- It's a two-state plan, with Israel and a Palestinian
state.
- The Palestinian territories will be combined into a Palestinian
state. Since Gaza is separated from the West Bank, the two regions
will be connected with roads, bridges and tunnels.
- Israel will control a united Jerusalem. However, the Palestinian
state capital will be in East Jerusalem, and America will build an
embassy there.
- Israel will agree to a four-year freeze on new West Bank
settlements.
- The amount of territory controlled by the Palestinians will be
doubled.
- Trump promised $60 billion dollars to Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt so
that they can resolve the problem of Palestinian refugees.
In May 2017, Trump met with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud
Abbas, and they agreed to work together to reach a historic peace deal
between Israelis and Palestinians. ( "4-May-17 World View -- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks"
)
At the time, Trump said, "I look forward to welcoming [Abbas] back as
a great marker of progress and, ultimately, toward the signing of a
document with the Israelis and with Israel toward peace. We want to
create peace between Israel and the Palestinians. We will get it
done."
Abbas responded as follows: "Mr. President, we believe that we are
capable and able to bring about success to our efforts because,
Mr. President, you have the determination and you have the desire to
see it become to fruition and to become successful. And we,
Mr. President, inshallah, God willing, we are coming into a new
opportunity, a new horizon that would enable us to bring about peace
in that regard. ... Mr. President, it’s about time for Israel to end
its occupation of our people and of our land after 50 years. We are
the only remaining people in the world that still live under
occupation."
It was pretty clear from just those two statements that it was never
going to work. Now that Trump's peace agreement was being announced,
Abbas refused to attend the ceremony.
His statement this time was far more colorful: "Trump is a dog and the
son of a dog. They called me from Washington, and I did not pick up
the phone. ... I said no, and I will continue to say no."
However, ambassadors from three Arab countries -- Oman, Bahrain, and
United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- did show up at the meeting.
The UAE ambassador tweeted that the UAE believes Palestinians and
Israelis can achieve lasting peace and genuine coexistence with the
support of the international community.
Britain's Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said,"This is clearly a
serious proposal, reflecting extensive time and effort. Only the
leaders of Israel and the Palestinian territories can determine
whether these proposals can meet the needs and aspirations of the
people they represent.
However, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhr said, "Trump's statement about
Jerusalem is nonsense and Jerusalem will always be a land for the
Palestinians ... The Palestinians will confront this deal and
Jerusalem will remain a Palestinian land."
Israel's Security Minister Naftali Bennett said in response to the
plan, "We will not allow for Israel, under any circumstances, to
recognize a Palestinian state."
I heard several Palestinian protests complain particularly about the
tunnels and bridges that are supposed to connect the two Palestinian
territories, saying that these were extremely offensive.
Later, Mahmoud Abbas said, "After the nonsense that we heard today we
say a thousand no’s to the Deal of The Century."
There's no way that this Rube Goldberg peace proposal is going to
survive.
****
**** The Mideast peace process fantasy
****
As I wrote in my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1,
2003, when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to
Peace," which described the details of a two-state solution, that will
never happen. Generational Dynamics predicts that the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs
would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
According to the CIA World Factbook, the average age of the population
in Gaza is 18, and in the West Bank is 21. Most of the population in
the Palestinian territories are children -- often children with guns.
They call themselves the "Oslo Generation," because they were born
after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to bring peace to the
Mideast, but have accomplished nothing.
Now think of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), who is 29 years old, who
says one incredibly idiotic thing every day, and yet is effectively
running the Democratic Party.
The point is that even if Mahmoud Abbas and other regional Arab
leaders wanted to agree to Trump's peace plan, they wouldn't be
supported by Oslo Generation Palestinians on the street.
This is the fallacy the media and politicians all make. They assume
that the leader of a country can make a decision, and everyone will
follow.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by
masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. So in this case, the even if Abbas signed
this peace deal, it would be meaningless.
The whole idea of a "Mideast peace process" and a "two-state solution"
is a complete fantasy. It's never going to happen.
As long-time readers know, the Generational Dynamics prediction is
that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews vs
Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.
The exact scenario can't be predicted, but tensions across the Mideast
continue to grow.
Sources:
- Live Updates Trump's Peace Plan Calls for Two States, Settlement Freeze (Haaretz, 28-Jan-2020)
- Palestinian leader rejects Trump's Middle East peace plan: 'A thousand no's' (The Hill, 28-Jan-2020)
- Trump's Mideast Peace Plan (White House, 28-Jan-2020)
- Trump offers two-state peace plan for Israeli-Palestinian conflict amid skepticism (The Hill, 28-Jan-2020)
- Trump unveils Middle East peace plan with two-state solution, tunnel connecting West Bank and Gaza (Fox News, 28-Jan-2020)
- What's in Trump's Middle East peace plan? (Fox News, 28-Jan-2020)
- Trump Middle East peace plan expands Israeli territory, offers path to Palestinian statehood (NBC News, 28-Jan-2020)
- Cut out of the process, Palestinians reject Trump's economic plan for Mideast peace (NBC News, 28-Jun-2019)
- Abbas: 1,000 ‘no’s to the Trump plan (Jerusalem Post, 28-Jan-2020)
- Palestinians angrily reject Trump Mideast peace plan (AP, 28-Jan-2020)
- Trump peace plan delights Israelis, enrages Palestinians (AP, 28-Jan-2020)
- Progressive Jewish Groups Dismiss Trump's Middle East Peace Plan As 'Utterly Bankrupt' and a 'Sham' (Newsweek, 28-Jan-2020)
- Trump leaps into Middle East fray with plan that favors Israel and angers Palestinians (Reuters, 28-Jan-2020)
- Former U.S. diplomat thinks Trump's Middle East peace plan will 'deepen' Israel-Palestine conflict (TheWeek-uk, 28-Jan-2020)
- Russia urges coordination on Mideast peace plan (Ynet, 28-Jan-2020)
- The Latest: Chief: UN committed to Israel-Palestinian peace (AP, 28-Jan-2020)
Related Articles
- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
- Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN (28-Sep-2015)
- Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud (01-Oct-2015)
- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
- Obama and Netanyahu in sharp disagreement after speech (20-May-2011)
- Obama administration ends effort to pressure Israel on settlements (08-Dec-2010)
- Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mideast, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Gaza, West Bank, Jerusalem, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt,
Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Dominic Raab, Hamas, Sami Abu Zuhr,
Naftali Bennett, Mahmoud Abbas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
