Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(02-04-2020, 02:15 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 04-Feb-2020 World View: Exponential growth of new Wuhan coronavirus cases

This graph exhibits exponential growth, and perhaps even parabolic growth:

<see above>

As I've been writing in my articles, we should know by March 1 whether
this rate of growth will continue, or whether it will level off.

I'm betting on a continuation that slowly, and I do mean slowly, subsides from the exponential model. Too many left Wuhan before the crackdown before containment, and nothing indicates that a vaccine is in the offing. Other than heightened awareness, nothing is likely to keep this in check inside China. The rest of the world should be locked-down a lot sooner, so your March 1st date may apply to not-China, though, due to proximity, a few other nearby smaller nations may get dragged along with the PRC. This will not disappear from the radar soon.