02-09-2020, 05:41 PM
** 09-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus: The Big Clinical Iceberg
Christopher Smith of Cambridge University was interviewed on the BBC
about the global Wuhan coronavirus emergency and what he called "The
Big Clinical Iceberg."
The number of reported cases in China seems to have leveled off at the
high 3,000s per day, at least for the time being. If they have
leveled off, then it's because of extreme draconian measures taken by
the Chinese -- with millions of people effectively under house arrest
-- measures that would not be tolerable in any other country.
Outside of China, only 280 cases have been reported, in 24 countries.
It appears that the safest place in the world to be is Africa, since
there have been no reported cases there. But that's because no one is
being tested. If you don't look for cases, then you won't find any
cases. (And Smith didn't mention this, but Africa has a number of
Chinese enclaves, thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).)
Even in the UK, there's only one place where testing is done. If you
enter the country with cold symptoms, they'll ask you whether you've
been to China or eight other countries in the last 14 days, and if you
haven't, then they'll let you right through. No formal testing will
be done.
So he says that every other country is in the same state of denial
that China was in about six weeks ago. If there is even a small
outbreak somewhere, then it could spread very fast. The incubation
period is 14 days, and each person who has the disease spreads it to
3-4 other people. So a small outbreak could spread to a very large
outbreak very quickly.
That's why the 280 cases outside of China that have been reported may
be only the tip of a very big clinical iceberg.
The draconian measures that China is taking have done the rest of the
world a favor. Not only have those measures slowed the spread of the
disease within China, but also they've slowed the transmission of the
disease outside of China, and that has bought the rest of the world
some time, time to figure out how to mitigate the spread once it
starts.
Christopher Smith of Cambridge University was interviewed on the BBC
about the global Wuhan coronavirus emergency and what he called "The
Big Clinical Iceberg."
The number of reported cases in China seems to have leveled off at the
high 3,000s per day, at least for the time being. If they have
leveled off, then it's because of extreme draconian measures taken by
the Chinese -- with millions of people effectively under house arrest
-- measures that would not be tolerable in any other country.
Outside of China, only 280 cases have been reported, in 24 countries.
It appears that the safest place in the world to be is Africa, since
there have been no reported cases there. But that's because no one is
being tested. If you don't look for cases, then you won't find any
cases. (And Smith didn't mention this, but Africa has a number of
Chinese enclaves, thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).)
Even in the UK, there's only one place where testing is done. If you
enter the country with cold symptoms, they'll ask you whether you've
been to China or eight other countries in the last 14 days, and if you
haven't, then they'll let you right through. No formal testing will
be done.
So he says that every other country is in the same state of denial
that China was in about six weeks ago. If there is even a small
outbreak somewhere, then it could spread very fast. The incubation
period is 14 days, and each person who has the disease spreads it to
3-4 other people. So a small outbreak could spread to a very large
outbreak very quickly.
That's why the 280 cases outside of China that have been reported may
be only the tip of a very big clinical iceberg.
The draconian measures that China is taking have done the rest of the
world a favor. Not only have those measures slowed the spread of the
disease within China, but also they've slowed the transmission of the
disease outside of China, and that has bought the rest of the world
some time, time to figure out how to mitigate the spread once it
starts.
