02-10-2020, 10:45 PM
*** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
****
![[Image: g200210b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200210b.jpg)
Turkish soldiers gather in Idlib, Syria (AFP)
Turkey and Syria appear close to war, as the forces of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad have begun targeting and killing Turkish
soldiers in Turkey's "observation posts" in Idlib province. ( "9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib"
)
According to a statement by Turkey's defense ministry, five Turkish
soldiers were killed and five more wounded by "the regime's intense
artillery fire [that] targeted our elements sent as reinforcement to
the region with an aim to prevent clashes in Idlib, ensure our border
security and stop migration and human tragedy."
Turkey said it carried out sweeping retaliation, hitting 115 Syrian
targets with strikes that killed dozens of Syrian troops, three Syrian
tanks, two artillery unites, and a military helicopter.
Turkey has established 12 observation posts, as I described in
my last article. Those observations posts were under a September 18, 2018,
agreement in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Turkey's president
Tayyip Recep Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Bashar al-Assad was not party to the agreement.
Russia's job would be to hold back al-Assad from attacking civilians
in Idlib. Turkey's job would be to separate out the "terrorists" from
the civilians, so that al-Assad could kill the "terrorists" without
harming the civilians. The problem is that al-Assad considers all of
the Sunni Arabs in Idlib to be "terrorists," cockroaches to be
exterminated by any means as quickly as possible.
According to Turkish media, al-Assad began attacking Turkish forces in
the observation posts early last year, with attacks reported on April
29, May 4, May 12, May 31, June 8, June 27 and August 19. Erdogan
threatened retaliation each time, but took no action. Now the
Turks are retaliating.
****
**** Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey
****
Bashar al-Assad is a sociopathic monster and war criminal who wants to
complete the work begun by his father, Hafez al-Assad, in exterminating
the Sunni Arabs in Syria and replacing as many of them as possible with
Alawites and Shia Muslims.
Al-Assad's horrors have been well documented. In 2014, an al-Assad
defector supplied 55,000 photos of about 11,000 men whom al-Assad had
tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation,
and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale.
Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure
each act was photographed. ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria"
)
Throughout my lifetime, I've heard people describe the Holocaust and
say, "Never again!" But al-Assad is a man who gets obvious pleasure
from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their fingernails, or
sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping
barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be
cockroaches to be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest
genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao
Zedong and Stalin from the last century. There is no mass weapon of
destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to
satisfy his psychopathy.
So there's no chance at all that al-Assad will agree to any
"political solutions." He will not stop until he's satisfied that
his father's enemies have been completely exterminated.
And there are already about a million displaced people in Idlib
crowded along the border with Turkey.
The situation is intolerable for Turkey. Erdogan cannot simply
"observe" as al-Assad slaughters many Sunni Arab men, women and
children -- not to mention that many of them are ethnic Turkmens. And
Turkey cannot tolerate millions more Syrian refugees, in addition to
the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that Turkey is already hosting.
Al-Assad expects Russia to continue supporting him, as he slaughters
the civilians in Idlib. He knows that Putin couldn't care less how
many of them get slaughtered. All Putin cares about is keeping
control of his two military bases in Syria that he was given in return
for supporting al-Assad -- the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim
airbase.
Erdogan expects Russia to support him -- because that's what Putin
agreed to in their meetings in Astana and Sochi. Turkish media points
out that there are many agreements between Turkey and Russia such as
the S-400 deal and TurkStream and other bilateral and military
cooperation deals. All of those deals would be in jeopardy if Russia
sides with al-Assad, and doing so might even lead to war between
Turkey and Russia. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
I'm aware of only one possible "compromise" solution that's being
discussed. Turkey would take control of 20-30 mile wide strip
of land in northern Idlib along the border with Turkey. This would
be a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," where perhaps millions of displaced
Sunni Arabs would live, under the protection of Turkey.
Any such buffer zone would be intolerable to al-Assad, and so this
"compromise" would work only if Putin forced it on him.
But unless something major changes Turkey will soon be at war with
Syria, and possibly with Russia.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Syria, Idlib,
Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
- Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey
****
**** Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
****
Turkish soldiers gather in Idlib, Syria (AFP)
Turkey and Syria appear close to war, as the forces of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad have begun targeting and killing Turkish
soldiers in Turkey's "observation posts" in Idlib province. ( "9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib"
)
According to a statement by Turkey's defense ministry, five Turkish
soldiers were killed and five more wounded by "the regime's intense
artillery fire [that] targeted our elements sent as reinforcement to
the region with an aim to prevent clashes in Idlib, ensure our border
security and stop migration and human tragedy."
Turkey said it carried out sweeping retaliation, hitting 115 Syrian
targets with strikes that killed dozens of Syrian troops, three Syrian
tanks, two artillery unites, and a military helicopter.
Turkey has established 12 observation posts, as I described in
my last article. Those observations posts were under a September 18, 2018,
agreement in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Turkey's president
Tayyip Recep Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin.
Bashar al-Assad was not party to the agreement.
Russia's job would be to hold back al-Assad from attacking civilians
in Idlib. Turkey's job would be to separate out the "terrorists" from
the civilians, so that al-Assad could kill the "terrorists" without
harming the civilians. The problem is that al-Assad considers all of
the Sunni Arabs in Idlib to be "terrorists," cockroaches to be
exterminated by any means as quickly as possible.
According to Turkish media, al-Assad began attacking Turkish forces in
the observation posts early last year, with attacks reported on April
29, May 4, May 12, May 31, June 8, June 27 and August 19. Erdogan
threatened retaliation each time, but took no action. Now the
Turks are retaliating.
****
**** Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey
****
Bashar al-Assad is a sociopathic monster and war criminal who wants to
complete the work begun by his father, Hafez al-Assad, in exterminating
the Sunni Arabs in Syria and replacing as many of them as possible with
Alawites and Shia Muslims.
Al-Assad's horrors have been well documented. In 2014, an al-Assad
defector supplied 55,000 photos of about 11,000 men whom al-Assad had
tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation,
and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale.
Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure
each act was photographed. ( "22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria"
)
Throughout my lifetime, I've heard people describe the Holocaust and
say, "Never again!" But al-Assad is a man who gets obvious pleasure
from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their fingernails, or
sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping
barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be
cockroaches to be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest
genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao
Zedong and Stalin from the last century. There is no mass weapon of
destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to
satisfy his psychopathy.
So there's no chance at all that al-Assad will agree to any
"political solutions." He will not stop until he's satisfied that
his father's enemies have been completely exterminated.
And there are already about a million displaced people in Idlib
crowded along the border with Turkey.
The situation is intolerable for Turkey. Erdogan cannot simply
"observe" as al-Assad slaughters many Sunni Arab men, women and
children -- not to mention that many of them are ethnic Turkmens. And
Turkey cannot tolerate millions more Syrian refugees, in addition to
the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that Turkey is already hosting.
Al-Assad expects Russia to continue supporting him, as he slaughters
the civilians in Idlib. He knows that Putin couldn't care less how
many of them get slaughtered. All Putin cares about is keeping
control of his two military bases in Syria that he was given in return
for supporting al-Assad -- the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim
airbase.
Erdogan expects Russia to support him -- because that's what Putin
agreed to in their meetings in Astana and Sochi. Turkish media points
out that there are many agreements between Turkey and Russia such as
the S-400 deal and TurkStream and other bilateral and military
cooperation deals. All of those deals would be in jeopardy if Russia
sides with al-Assad, and doing so might even lead to war between
Turkey and Russia. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
I'm aware of only one possible "compromise" solution that's being
discussed. Turkey would take control of 20-30 mile wide strip
of land in northern Idlib along the border with Turkey. This would
be a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," where perhaps millions of displaced
Sunni Arabs would live, under the protection of Turkey.
Any such buffer zone would be intolerable to al-Assad, and so this
"compromise" would work only if Putin forced it on him.
But unless something major changes Turkey will soon be at war with
Syria, and possibly with Russia.
Sources:
- Turkey Strikes Scores of Pro-Assad Targets After Troops Killed (Bloomberg, 10-Feb-2020)
- Analysis / Idlib most challenging agenda in February (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Feb-2020)
- A ticking bomb: Idlib (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Feb-2020)
- NATO least liked in Turkey, study shows (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 10-Feb-2020)
- 5 Turkish troops killed in 'intense' Syrian army attack in Idlib (Al-Jazeera, 10-Feb-2020)
- Syria war: Government shellfire kills Turkish soldiers in Idlib (BBC, 10-Feb-2020)
- Syria and Turkey inch closer to war after shelling kills 5 Turkish soldiers (Washington Post, 10-Feb-2020)
Related Articles:
- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Syria, Idlib,
Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
