02-11-2020, 10:39 AM
** 11-Feb-2020 World View: If Russia backs out
When Russia entered the war on the side of al-Assad in 2015, it was
after al-Assad said that he was losing the war. Russia and Iran
(through Hezbollah) intervened and saved al-Assad from defeat.
Syria is in a generational Awakening era. Al-Assad's Alawite army had
little will to fight, and was beset by a continuing stream of
desertions. Al-Assad was saved by Russia and Hezbollah.
Today, of course, Hezbollah has problems of its own, since Trump
imposed sanctions on Hezbollah's puppetmaster, Iran, so that Iran has
had to substantially cut funding. At the same time, Lebanon itself is
dealing with street riots and a government near collapse.
So what would happen if Russia simply pulled out, and left Turkey and
al-Assad to fight each other? My guess is that the most likely
scenario is that al-Assad's government would collapse, and that
Erdogan would go through Idlib and keep going until he reached
Damascus.
That would be a disastrous loss of face for both Russia and Iran.
So I don't believe that Russia could simply walk away.
(02-11-2020, 12:33 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I don't think Russia has to take a side. They can just refrain
> from intervening on either side, and let Turkey and Syria fight it
> out.
When Russia entered the war on the side of al-Assad in 2015, it was
after al-Assad said that he was losing the war. Russia and Iran
(through Hezbollah) intervened and saved al-Assad from defeat.
Syria is in a generational Awakening era. Al-Assad's Alawite army had
little will to fight, and was beset by a continuing stream of
desertions. Al-Assad was saved by Russia and Hezbollah.
Today, of course, Hezbollah has problems of its own, since Trump
imposed sanctions on Hezbollah's puppetmaster, Iran, so that Iran has
had to substantially cut funding. At the same time, Lebanon itself is
dealing with street riots and a government near collapse.
So what would happen if Russia simply pulled out, and left Turkey and
al-Assad to fight each other? My guess is that the most likely
scenario is that al-Assad's government would collapse, and that
Erdogan would go through Idlib and keep going until he reached
Damascus.
That would be a disastrous loss of face for both Russia and Iran.
So I don't believe that Russia could simply walk away.
