02-11-2020, 01:13 PM
(02-11-2020, 10:39 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So what would happen if Russia simply pulled out, and left Turkey and
al-Assad to fight each other? My guess is that the most likely
scenario is that al-Assad's government would collapse, and that
Erdogan would go through Idlib and keep going until he reached
Damascus.
That would be a disastrous loss of face for both Russia and Iran.
So I don't believe that Russia could simply walk away.
Sorry, I didn't mean that Russia would pull out of Syria entirely.
I think Russia could stay out of the Idlib deescalation zone, and let Turkey and Syria fight it out there, with Turkey likely winning, as you imply. Russia would make it clear that they would get involved if Turkey went beyond the boundaries of the deescalation zone, and Turkey would refrain from doing so. This works as long as Turkey wins within the deescalation zone.
