Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Tensions grow between Turkey and Russia over Idlib

• Syrians fleeing with their belongings head northwards toward
  the border with Turkey

Anti-Assad rebels in Syria's Idlib province on Tuesday shot down shot
down a military helicopter belonging to the army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. All crew members were killed in a fiery crash. The
anti-Assad rebels claimed that the helicopter had been dropping barrel
bombs on civilian neighborhoods.

This comes as al-Assad's ground forces, backed by Russia and Iran,
continued to advance in Idlib towards the Turkish forces in
"observation posts," whose job is to assure that previous
"de-escalation zone" agreement in Idlib honored. In the past, Russia
and Syria have honored these agreements, but have used them as cover
to continue attacking al-Assad's Sunni Arab political enemies.

Turkish forces have retaliated and killed over 100 Syrian forces
during the last week.

Russia is siding with al-Assad, and is demanding that Turkey stop
attacking Syrian forces.

Turkey's politicians are becoming increasingly nationalistic, and some
political opponents of Recep Tayyip Erdogan are demanding that Turkish
forces keep fighting through Idlib, all the way to Damascus.

According to some Turkish press reports, there have been meetings
between American and Turkish officials, leading the Russians to worry
that, after years of estrangement, Turkey and America are reconciling,
and America will provide some sort of support to Turkey in Idlib.
This possibility is said to be worrying the Russians, who for years
have been doing everything possible to pull Turkey away from America,
Nato and the EU.

The situation remains chaotic and in flux.

---- Sources:

-- Russia wary of Turkey turning to U.S. over Idlib - columnist
https://ahvalnews.com/russia-turkey/russ...-columnist
(Ahval News, Ankara, 5-Feb-2020)

-- Rebels shoot down Syrian helicopter as fighting intensifies
https://www.theledger.com/news/20200211/...ntensifies
(AP, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Idlib / Erdogan Threatens Military Escalation in Syria
https://www.voanews.com/europe/erdogan-t...tion-syria
(VOA, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Intel: Turkish demands on Idlib complicate Russia’s pursuit of
compromise
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina...-deal.html
(Al-Monitor, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey's options dry up in Syria as Russia backs Assad push
https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-options-dr...a-52344299
(Deutsche-Welle, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Kremlin to Turkey: Help Stop Attacks on Syrian and Russian Forces
in Idlib
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/1...lib-a69238
(Reuters, 11-Feb-2020)

---- Related articles:

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200209