02-14-2020, 01:38 PM
** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Stock market trend
I think that this analysis is exactly right.
I just updated my DJIA historical page for the first time in a while:
** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm
It says that the current DJIA trend value is 9325. If we assume a
roughly ten to one ratio, then the current S&P 500 trend value would
be more like 932.
Higgenbotham Wrote:> Let's say the stock market futures have topped out at this
> session's all time high of 3388.50 on the March S&P futures. It
> would seem reasonable that it could happen given the extremes in
> valuation and the uncertainty in the economy.
> I would estimate fair value on the S&P at no more than 1300
> (probably less) based on long term trend and long term earnings,
> provided we are in a "run of the mill" cycle (which I don't think
> we are, but in that case, fair value in much less, so let's just
> be conservative and use "run of the mill" analysis as the truth on
> that will manifest as time goes on). Before the bear market is
> done, the "run of the mill" bear market will typically undershoot
> fair value by 50%. Assuming that type of cycle, the trend will
> move higher even as the market moves lower and may be at 1500 or
> so when the market bottoms. That would put the "conservative"
> target on the S&P somewhere around 750 (and probably much less).
> I think Tesla is a key (maybe the key) stock to watch because it
> represents a barometer for optimism about the future, much more so
> than any of the FAANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and
> Google, as those companies have met their missions) in my opinion.
> It also represents a barometer for the rampant greed and
> speculation, long and short. If Tesla has topped (and I think it
> has) even if the high in the Nasdaq is in the future (and I don't
> think it is), it is not far away. Months at the most, it would
> seem.
I think that this analysis is exactly right.
I just updated my DJIA historical page for the first time in a while:
** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm
It says that the current DJIA trend value is 9325. If we assume a
roughly ten to one ratio, then the current S&P 500 trend value would
be more like 932.
