02-15-2020, 10:33 PM
*** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
****
![[Image: g200215b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200215b.jpg)
American Marines in Afghanistan (Getty)
This could be a Saturday Night Live skit. And maybe it will be.
The United States, led by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, announced
an agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan whose final objective
would be to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.
According to Esper on Thursday:
<QUOTE>"The best, if not only solution forward is a political
agreement. We have the basis for one on the table, and we are
taking a hard look at it. We are consulting with our allies. We
are consulting with Congress and others. And I think peace
deserves a chance."<END QUOTE>
It's not exactly a "peace treaty," since no one pretends that it will
bring peace. And it's not a truce, since no one pretends that the US
and the Taliban will stop killing each other. And it's not a
ceasefire, since no one pretends that anyone will cease firing. It's
being called a "reduction in violence" which, I assume, means that the
number of schoolchildren that the Taliban will kill with bombs every
week will be reduced by, say, 25%. That's progress, isn't it?
And it's not a permanent "reduction in violence" agreement. It's a
7-day "reduction in violence" agreement. If the Taliban uphold their
commitments during the 7 days, then negotiations would begin within 10
days for a permanent U.S.-Taliban peace agreement. Where the
negotiations will take place was not announced, but Germany and Norway
have offered to host the talks. The Afghan government is not party to
the agreement.
And then if the negotiations go well, the United States will begin to
withdraw troops from Afghanistan. There are about 12,000 American
troops in Afghanistan, and about 4,000 troops from other Nato
countries.
It takes my breath away.
By the way, the US and the Taliban announced an agreement in
September, and the Taliban were coming to Camp David to sign it. But
them a terrorist set off a car bomb in Kabul, killing 12 people
including an American soldier, so Trump called off the signing
ceremony. Something like that could happen again during the 7-dy
reduction in violence.
****
**** The year of laughable peace agreements
****
Whenever any politician says anything like:
<QUOTE>"There is no military solution. The only possible
solution is a political solution."<END QUOTE>
then he's nothing but a babbling idiot. The same is true when a
politician, like Esper, says "And I think peace deserves a
chance."
There is NEVER a political solution to a war. (Well, just to protect
myself, let's just change that to "almost never.")
If it's a generational crisis war, then it end will with an explosive
genocidal climax and victory. WW II in Europe did not end because
Churchill and Hitler got together and signed a peace agreement. WW II
in Asia did not end because FDR and Emperor Hirohito agreed to a
political solution mediated by Charles de Gaulle.
If it's a non-crisis war, then it might end with victory and
surrender, or it might end with a "peace agreement." But in the
latter case, the peace agreement will never last. Typically, in these
situations, the combatants alternate between periods of war that end
in ceasefires, and periods of "peace" that end when the peace
agreement collapses. The Jews and the Arabs have signed multiple
"peace agreements," but they don't last. The conflict between Jews
and Palestinians will not end except through a massive bloody war,
where one side or the other achieves victory, and the other side
surrenders. That's the way the world works.
As the old saying goes:
<QUOTE>"Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when
everybody stands around reloading."<END QUOTE>
So let's take a look at three "peace agreements" that are in the
news these days.
It's interesting how similar these three laughable "peace agreements"
are:
As I say, politicians are babbling idiots.
If you look at the world today, American and the Western countries
generally feel obligated to honor their commitments. But three major
countries -- Russia, Iran and China -- see commitments and peace
agreements as a way of controlling the West, since they can violate
the agreements with impunity, but the Western countries remain bound
to them. In fact, this has been an actual strategy of Russia and
Vladimir Putin since 2010 -- use Russia's veto power in the UN
Security Council to cripple the foreign policy of America and the
West, while Russia does whatever the hell it wants, such as annexing
Crimea. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)
****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.
The above is a brief summary of stuff that I've written about in great
detail in the past about why peace will fail in Afghanistan. It's not
rocket science for the so-called "Washington experts," but it does
require studying history and trying to understand what's actually
going on in the world. But we live in a society where SAT scores have
been plummetting for decades, ever since the Boomers graduated, and
where all college courses are being taught by incredibly stupid
Marxist idiots. People in the mainstream media know nothing about the
world except Marxist sociology and women's studies. In Congress you
have total idiots like AOC who says something every day to prove how
stupid she is. And in the Administration, you have "experts" who have
also graduated from colleges teaching Marxist sociology and women's
studies.
So there's really no hope. The above summary is not rocket science,
but it's far beyond the mental capabilities of the analysts,
journalists and "experts" in Washington, almost all of whom are way
too steeped in metoo and socialist garbage to have any clue what's
really going on in the world. The same is true about many of the
other hundreds of countries and societies that I've studied, analyzed
and written about in the last 15 years. All the people in Washington
can do is stumble in the dark, until they stumble into World War III.
Then they finally learn what's going on. That's the way the world
works.
"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." -- Attributed to
American satirist Ambrose Bierce, early 1900s.
Sources:
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Mark Esper, Israel, Palestinians, Syria, Idlib,
Pashtuns, Northern Alliance,
Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Ambrose Bierce
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
- The year of laughable peace agreements
- Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
**** US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
****
American Marines in Afghanistan (Getty)
This could be a Saturday Night Live skit. And maybe it will be.
The United States, led by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, announced
an agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan whose final objective
would be to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan.
According to Esper on Thursday:
<QUOTE>"The best, if not only solution forward is a political
agreement. We have the basis for one on the table, and we are
taking a hard look at it. We are consulting with our allies. We
are consulting with Congress and others. And I think peace
deserves a chance."<END QUOTE>
It's not exactly a "peace treaty," since no one pretends that it will
bring peace. And it's not a truce, since no one pretends that the US
and the Taliban will stop killing each other. And it's not a
ceasefire, since no one pretends that anyone will cease firing. It's
being called a "reduction in violence" which, I assume, means that the
number of schoolchildren that the Taliban will kill with bombs every
week will be reduced by, say, 25%. That's progress, isn't it?
And it's not a permanent "reduction in violence" agreement. It's a
7-day "reduction in violence" agreement. If the Taliban uphold their
commitments during the 7 days, then negotiations would begin within 10
days for a permanent U.S.-Taliban peace agreement. Where the
negotiations will take place was not announced, but Germany and Norway
have offered to host the talks. The Afghan government is not party to
the agreement.
And then if the negotiations go well, the United States will begin to
withdraw troops from Afghanistan. There are about 12,000 American
troops in Afghanistan, and about 4,000 troops from other Nato
countries.
It takes my breath away.
By the way, the US and the Taliban announced an agreement in
September, and the Taliban were coming to Camp David to sign it. But
them a terrorist set off a car bomb in Kabul, killing 12 people
including an American soldier, so Trump called off the signing
ceremony. Something like that could happen again during the 7-dy
reduction in violence.
****
**** The year of laughable peace agreements
****
Whenever any politician says anything like:
<QUOTE>"There is no military solution. The only possible
solution is a political solution."<END QUOTE>
then he's nothing but a babbling idiot. The same is true when a
politician, like Esper, says "And I think peace deserves a
chance."
There is NEVER a political solution to a war. (Well, just to protect
myself, let's just change that to "almost never.")
If it's a generational crisis war, then it end will with an explosive
genocidal climax and victory. WW II in Europe did not end because
Churchill and Hitler got together and signed a peace agreement. WW II
in Asia did not end because FDR and Emperor Hirohito agreed to a
political solution mediated by Charles de Gaulle.
If it's a non-crisis war, then it might end with victory and
surrender, or it might end with a "peace agreement." But in the
latter case, the peace agreement will never last. Typically, in these
situations, the combatants alternate between periods of war that end
in ceasefires, and periods of "peace" that end when the peace
agreement collapses. The Jews and the Arabs have signed multiple
"peace agreements," but they don't last. The conflict between Jews
and Palestinians will not end except through a massive bloody war,
where one side or the other achieves victory, and the other side
surrenders. That's the way the world works.
As the old saying goes:
<QUOTE>"Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when
everybody stands around reloading."<END QUOTE>
So let's take a look at three "peace agreements" that are in the
news these days.
- Idlib Syria Astana/Sochi De-escalation agreement
Agreement between Russia and Turkey. Syrian regime is not a party.
There is a massive disaster unfolding in Idlib. There are three
possible paths: (1) Sociopathic monster Bashar al-Assad, backed by
Russia, will slaughter millions of innocent men, women and children.
(2) Turkey will open its border and let millions of refugees flood
into Turkey and Europe. (3) Turkey and al-Assad will go to war.
( "9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib"
)
For sleazebag Vladimir Putin, the whole Astana de-escalation thing was
a big joke. The only objective was to provide political cover for
genocide and ethnic cleansing by Putin and al-Assad, and also by
Iran's sleazebag, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
- Mideast "Peace to Properity" agreement
Agreement between US and Israel. The Arabs are not a party.
This turns out to be a pragmatic Rube Goldberg agreement for a
two-state solution, with a promise of $60 billion to Jordan, Lebanon
and Egypt to spend on Palestinians to implement the agreement. ( "6-Feb-20 World View -- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy"
)
It's assumed that the Israelis and Palestinians would continue to hate
each other, but they would stop fighting because of the money.
- Afghanistan "reduction in violence" agreement
Agreement between US and Taliban. The Afghan government is not a
party.
This is the one we're talking about today. As I've written many
times, Generational Dynamics proves that no "peace" in Afghanistan is
possible. I'll summarize the reasons again below. ( "16-Dec-19 World View -- Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan"
)
Why does the US want of the current US-Taliban agreement? It's to
provide a political path for the withdrawal of American forces with
dignity. Why do the Taliban want it? It's because they want the
withdrawal of American forces, and so American and Taliban objectives
coincide to that extent. However, the Taliban want to inflict as much
humiliation as possible on the US forces as they're withdrawal, and
then to move on to Kabul and overthrow the government, to prove that
America's 18 year involvement in Afghanistan was a waste of time,
blood and money.
It's interesting how similar these three laughable "peace agreements"
are:
- They're all politically meaningless.
- They all exclude the most important party.
- The party they exclude is always the side that wants to continue
the war.
As I say, politicians are babbling idiots.
If you look at the world today, American and the Western countries
generally feel obligated to honor their commitments. But three major
countries -- Russia, Iran and China -- see commitments and peace
agreements as a way of controlling the West, since they can violate
the agreements with impunity, but the Western countries remain bound
to them. In fact, this has been an actual strategy of Russia and
Vladimir Putin since 2010 -- use Russia's veto power in the UN
Security Council to cripple the foreign policy of America and the
West, while Russia does whatever the hell it wants, such as annexing
Crimea. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)
****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.
The above is a brief summary of stuff that I've written about in great
detail in the past about why peace will fail in Afghanistan. It's not
rocket science for the so-called "Washington experts," but it does
require studying history and trying to understand what's actually
going on in the world. But we live in a society where SAT scores have
been plummetting for decades, ever since the Boomers graduated, and
where all college courses are being taught by incredibly stupid
Marxist idiots. People in the mainstream media know nothing about the
world except Marxist sociology and women's studies. In Congress you
have total idiots like AOC who says something every day to prove how
stupid she is. And in the Administration, you have "experts" who have
also graduated from colleges teaching Marxist sociology and women's
studies.
So there's really no hope. The above summary is not rocket science,
but it's far beyond the mental capabilities of the analysts,
journalists and "experts" in Washington, almost all of whom are way
too steeped in metoo and socialist garbage to have any clue what's
really going on in the world. The same is true about many of the
other hundreds of countries and societies that I've studied, analyzed
and written about in the last 15 years. All the people in Washington
can do is stumble in the dark, until they stumble into World War III.
Then they finally learn what's going on. That's the way the world
works.
"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." -- Attributed to
American satirist Ambrose Bierce, early 1900s.
Sources:
- U.S., Taliban Negotiate 7-Day Proposal for Reduction in Violence (Dept. of Defense, 13-Feb-2020)
- US and Taliban agree to truce, way forward in Afghanistan (AP, 14-Feb-2020)
- In Afghanistan, jailed Taliban await peace, their freedom (AP, 30-Dec-2019)
- U.S. announces a brief truce with the Taliban in Afghanistan, as a prelude to possible negotiations (LA Times, 14-Feb-2020)
- U.S. reportedly reaches Afghanistan truce with Taliban (Axios, 14-Feb-2020)
- The Afghanistan conundrum (Axios, 13-Feb-2020)
- Landmark Peace Pact With Taliban to Come Into Effect ‘Soon’ (Washington Free Beacon, 14-Feb-2020)
- US, Taliban reach truce agreement calling for 'reduction in violence' (Fox News, 14-Feb-2020)
- Pompeo touts partial ceasefire with Taliban in push for election-year troop reduction (Guardian, London, 13-Feb-2020)
- Afghanistan: airstrike kills eight after US hails breakthrough in Taliban talks (Reuters, 14-Feb-2020)
- Taliban, Afghan forces clash despite talk of breakthrough in peace deal (Reuters, 14-Feb-2020)
- Esper / Defense Secretary says start of reduction in violence period in Afghanistan 'is a moving date' (CNN, 15-Feb-2020)
- Ending ‘endless war’? US & Taliban reach ‘violence reduction (Russia Today, 14-Feb-2020)
Related Articles
- Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan (16-Dec-2019)
- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations' (11-Sep-2019)
- Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
- New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable (06-Dec-2018)
- Afghan Taliban launches multiple terror attacks, then declares farcical ceasefire (10-Jun-2018)
- Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics (22-Apr-2011)
- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy (06-Feb-2020)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Mark Esper, Israel, Palestinians, Syria, Idlib,
Pashtuns, Northern Alliance,
Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Ambrose Bierce
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
