02-16-2020, 04:10 PM
** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Iran and Afghanistan
We don't know how the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) is going to affect
the world in the next couple of months.
And you've given a good example. A big virus outbreak in Afghanistan
would change everything. Iran is already suffering from the virus
because China is buying far less oil from Iran, and Iran's economy is
already sick. If there's a big outbreak in Iran, and it's blamed on
the fact that the leadership ignored it until it was too late, that
could cause a palace coup.
There's a lot of nervousness among medical analysts that we might
still see a big explosion. Of course, here in the United States, or
in Britain or Europe, we all have sophisticated medical
infrastructures, so we'll stop it in its tracks if it gets here.
Oh wait a minute. Singapore has a very sophisticated medical
infrastructure, and some analysts are saying that it will have to burn
through Singapore. Japan is also a modern developed nation, and it's
spreading across the entire country.
The same is true in China. The Chinese are claiming that it's
contained now, but of course that just means the epiceneter, Hubei
province. China has 1.4 billion people, and it may already have
spread to even millions of people without the CCP yet knowing it.
The problem is that it's apparently possible to spread the disease
asymptomatically. A person may become infected, and then spread it to
many other period during the 14-24 day incubation period, before he
even knows he has it.
The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at least
when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will stop
spreading. But I've heard several experts say that they don't know
whether or not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And
they don't know whether it will then start to spread in the
southern hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa,
and so forth.
And those are developed countries. We don't know what will happen if
it spreads to underdeveloped countries in Central Asia, Africa,
and elsewhere.
So if the current glide path to "normalcy" continues, then the
crisis should be all over in two or three months. But if there
are very bombshells -- large unexpected outbreaks in various parts
of the world -- the the world may look very different in two or
three months.
utahbob Wrote:> John, Good analysis. ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to
> sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan.
> The real impact will not be evident to most Westerners for a few
> months due to the real action is out of sight of the media in the
> hinterlands, deserts, mountains and rural area in the south.
> English is hardly spoken, so reporters will be in the dark. Most
> media and their handlers will stay in Kabul with a few brave or
> stupid souls venturing into Kandahar. They will not go to the
> farmers and see what they are doing or thinking, most of the time
> they hole up in the Hotel Intercontinental or Serena. There a few
> cities that have a bit of “modern” sheen, but really the real
> power of Afghanistan is the countryside. We might get inkling if a
> semi-clean election is held and a new Wolesi Jirga/Parliament is
> sworn in. I am not sure when the next election scheduled. Most of
> the Afghans don’t really care who runs the government: it is a
> feudal society with local warlords on the hook to deliver to the
> tribe or clan. If they don’t, somebody will step over their
> predecessor, take over and give it a try, line theirs, family and
> friends pockets.
> Many of the Taliban and government officials are related or known
> associates to each other. The powerful families, tribes, clans and
> ethnic groups are intertwined they will hash it out in local
> shuras after bazaars , back rooms and alleys. The drug industry
> and lords will have a say. In a few weeks or month spring will be
> back with warmer weather, the snowbirds or fighters will migrate
> back to the central highlands from Quetta and Karachi, dig up
> weapons in caches around Tarin Kowt and fighting season will start
> again.
> I hate to be cynical, but if or when this coronavirus hit
> Afghanistan, it will be very easy for the US and NATO to pull
> out.
utahbob Wrote:> I just found this:
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china...SKBN2060L4
> If it is in Iran, it is or will be soon in Afghanistan. There is
> no border control between the two countries.
We don't know how the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) is going to affect
the world in the next couple of months.
And you've given a good example. A big virus outbreak in Afghanistan
would change everything. Iran is already suffering from the virus
because China is buying far less oil from Iran, and Iran's economy is
already sick. If there's a big outbreak in Iran, and it's blamed on
the fact that the leadership ignored it until it was too late, that
could cause a palace coup.
There's a lot of nervousness among medical analysts that we might
still see a big explosion. Of course, here in the United States, or
in Britain or Europe, we all have sophisticated medical
infrastructures, so we'll stop it in its tracks if it gets here.
Oh wait a minute. Singapore has a very sophisticated medical
infrastructure, and some analysts are saying that it will have to burn
through Singapore. Japan is also a modern developed nation, and it's
spreading across the entire country.
The same is true in China. The Chinese are claiming that it's
contained now, but of course that just means the epiceneter, Hubei
province. China has 1.4 billion people, and it may already have
spread to even millions of people without the CCP yet knowing it.
The problem is that it's apparently possible to spread the disease
asymptomatically. A person may become infected, and then spread it to
many other period during the 14-24 day incubation period, before he
even knows he has it.
The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at least
when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will stop
spreading. But I've heard several experts say that they don't know
whether or not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And
they don't know whether it will then start to spread in the
southern hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa,
and so forth.
And those are developed countries. We don't know what will happen if
it spreads to underdeveloped countries in Central Asia, Africa,
and elsewhere.
So if the current glide path to "normalcy" continues, then the
crisis should be all over in two or three months. But if there
are very bombshells -- large unexpected outbreaks in various parts
of the world -- the the world may look very different in two or
three months.
