02-26-2020, 10:34 PM
*** 27-Feb-20 World View -- India's 1947 Partition War being refought as Delhi riots spread
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Communal Hindu vs Muslim violence kills 27 in India's capital Delhi
****
![[Image: g200226b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200226b.jpg)
Aftermath of Hindu-Muslim ethnic clashes in Delhi on Wednesday (AFP)
With all that's going on in the world today -- an increasingly
explosive situation in Idlib, Syria, with al-Assad's army threatening
full-scale genocide and Turkey threatening war with Syria, and a
growing coronavirus crisis in multiple countries -- it's easy to
ignore a growing ethnic conflict in India.
At least 27 people were killed and hundreds injured in three days
ethnic riots between Hindus and Muslims in Delhi, India's capital
city. In most cases, the violence was by Hindu nationalist mobs
targeting Muslims, beating unarmed Muslim men, and destroying or
burning Muslim homes and businesses. Muslims claim that the police
did nothing to stop the violence, and Hindus claim that some Hindus
were attacked as well. It's described as the worst communal violence
in Delhi in decades.
The protests were triggered by a new law, the Citizenship Amendment
Act (CAA) that became law in December. According to the Indian
government, the purpose of the law is to protect persecuted ethnic
minorities in neighboring countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh), by allowing members of the ethnic minorities to apply for
citizenship in India. ( "17-Dec-19 World View -- India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War"
)
So that sounds perfectly reasonable, until you begin to understand its
consequences. It applies to persecuted minorities -- Hindu,
Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh or Buddhist -- but not to Muslims, since
Muslims are not minorities in the neighbor countries. Opponents of
the law point out that ethnic minorities that happen to be Muslim are
also excluded, referring specifically to the Rohingyas in Bangladesh,
as well as Ahmadis and Sufis in Pakistan.
Starting in December, there were large anti-CAA protests, and protesters
included by Muslims and Hindus, complaining that the law undermines
India's secular traditions.
However, as the weeks have passed, Muslims in the protests have been
increasingly targeted by Hindutva (Hindu nationalists) with
inflammatory speeches and expletives and mobs mouthing racist
anti-Muslim slogans. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heads the
Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), are being accused by
activists of inciting the violence against Muslim.
Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents
associate it with "Hindutva violence," where the Hindutva movement
began in 1923, led by Veer Savarkar (Vinayak Damodar Savarkar), mostly
as a movement against British colonization. (See "'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians"
from 2008.) Modi became associated
with Hindutva violence in 2002, as Governor of the Gujarat province,
when he allegedly looked the other way when a train with Hindutva
activists attacked a group of Muslims, triggering sectarian violence
that led to hundreds of deaths and displacing more than 150,000
people, mostly Muslim. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister"
)
Many in the media are also comparing the current anti-Muslim
riots to a major 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhin, in which
more than 3,000 Sikhs were killed.
****
**** Delhi riots evoke memories of India's bloody 1947 Partition War
****
It's been 73 years since India's last generational crisis war,
the 1947 Partition War that followed when the Indian subcontinent
was partitioned into two countries, India and Pakistan. The idea
was that Hindus and Sikhs would occupy India, and Muslims would
occupy Pakistan. But unfortunately the partition wasn't "clean,"
in the sense that there were both Hindus and Muslims on both sides
of the partition line. The result was one of the most massive
and bloodiest battle of the 20th century, the 1947 Partition War.
The preceding generational crisis war, when India was a British colony
and there was no Pakistan, was the 1857 anti-British rebellion, also
also called India's First War of Independence from the British
colonial power. What started out as protests related to the Hindu
veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational crisis
war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')"
)
So the 1857 rebellion and the 1947 Partition War were the last two
generational crisis wars, and India is overdue for a new one.
The current communal violence in Delhi is extremely disturbing, and
in this generational Crisis era, it is possible that the Delhi
violence will escalate into war.
Dear Reader, if you get the feeling that the world is coming apart at
the seams, you're right. That's what happens during a generational
Crisis era. Winston Churchill referred to a similar period prior to
WW II as "The Gathering Storm." We're seeing a "gathering storm"
today, and it's possible that the growing Delhi violence in India will
be the trigger for a much larger war.
****
**** The generational 'Democide Pattern'
****
As I've developed generational theory and Generational Dynamics, I've
seen a particular pattern occur over and over in dozens of countries.
I've decided to adopt the name "Democide Pattern" for this pattern,
even though the original author of the term "democide," R. J. Rummel,
used it to mean mass slaughter of a segment of a country's population
by the government.
I'm using the same word in an expanded sense, to include things like
torture, rape, jailings, executions, and discrimination targeting a
segment of the population. This pattern occurs in countries in the
decades following a generational crisis war which is also a civil war.
Regular readers know that I've written several times about the
differences that depend on whether the preceding crisis war was an
external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war
between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, when the war
ends, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further
contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the
latter case, the two populations continue to live with each other when
the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the
same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge
continue at a very personal level.
In the past I've described in general terms what happens, but now
I'm using the term "Democide Pattern" to describe the particular
behaviors that occur. After a generational crisis ethnic or
tribal civil war ends, the winning side gets control of the
government. There's usually some sort of peace agreement at
the end of the war, where the winning tribe promises not to
discriminate against the losing tribe, but that agreement always
falls apart when the losing tribe begins to gain political power.
I'll write more about this at a later date, but here is a summary
of the behaviors that we see in country after country:
India has adopted most of these behaviors targeting Muslims.
A standard technique is for the government to continually discriminate
and incite violence against the losing tribe, in order to provoke some
kind of violent or terrorist act in response. This provides the
excuse for the government to collective punishment against everyone in
the losing tribe.
The extreme example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the
worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far this century. But
I've also described the same phenomenon, with varying levels of
violence, with Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi,
Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in
Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad
in Syria, Hun Sen in Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Delhi, Citizenship Amendment Act, CAA,
Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh, Buddhist, Muslim,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Ahmadis, Sufis,
Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP,
Hindutva, Hindu nationalists, Gujarat, Sikhs,
Partition War, War of Independence,
Democide pattern, R. J. Rummel
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Communal Hindu vs Muslim violence kills 27 in India's capital Delhi
- Delhi riots evoke memories of India's bloody 1947 Partition War
- The generational 'Democide Pattern'
****
**** Communal Hindu vs Muslim violence kills 27 in India's capital Delhi
****
Aftermath of Hindu-Muslim ethnic clashes in Delhi on Wednesday (AFP)
With all that's going on in the world today -- an increasingly
explosive situation in Idlib, Syria, with al-Assad's army threatening
full-scale genocide and Turkey threatening war with Syria, and a
growing coronavirus crisis in multiple countries -- it's easy to
ignore a growing ethnic conflict in India.
At least 27 people were killed and hundreds injured in three days
ethnic riots between Hindus and Muslims in Delhi, India's capital
city. In most cases, the violence was by Hindu nationalist mobs
targeting Muslims, beating unarmed Muslim men, and destroying or
burning Muslim homes and businesses. Muslims claim that the police
did nothing to stop the violence, and Hindus claim that some Hindus
were attacked as well. It's described as the worst communal violence
in Delhi in decades.
The protests were triggered by a new law, the Citizenship Amendment
Act (CAA) that became law in December. According to the Indian
government, the purpose of the law is to protect persecuted ethnic
minorities in neighboring countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh), by allowing members of the ethnic minorities to apply for
citizenship in India. ( "17-Dec-19 World View -- India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War"
)
So that sounds perfectly reasonable, until you begin to understand its
consequences. It applies to persecuted minorities -- Hindu,
Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh or Buddhist -- but not to Muslims, since
Muslims are not minorities in the neighbor countries. Opponents of
the law point out that ethnic minorities that happen to be Muslim are
also excluded, referring specifically to the Rohingyas in Bangladesh,
as well as Ahmadis and Sufis in Pakistan.
Starting in December, there were large anti-CAA protests, and protesters
included by Muslims and Hindus, complaining that the law undermines
India's secular traditions.
However, as the weeks have passed, Muslims in the protests have been
increasingly targeted by Hindutva (Hindu nationalists) with
inflammatory speeches and expletives and mobs mouthing racist
anti-Muslim slogans. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heads the
Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), are being accused by
activists of inciting the violence against Muslim.
Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents
associate it with "Hindutva violence," where the Hindutva movement
began in 1923, led by Veer Savarkar (Vinayak Damodar Savarkar), mostly
as a movement against British colonization. (See "'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians"
from 2008.) Modi became associated
with Hindutva violence in 2002, as Governor of the Gujarat province,
when he allegedly looked the other way when a train with Hindutva
activists attacked a group of Muslims, triggering sectarian violence
that led to hundreds of deaths and displacing more than 150,000
people, mostly Muslim. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister"
)
Many in the media are also comparing the current anti-Muslim
riots to a major 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhin, in which
more than 3,000 Sikhs were killed.
****
**** Delhi riots evoke memories of India's bloody 1947 Partition War
****
It's been 73 years since India's last generational crisis war,
the 1947 Partition War that followed when the Indian subcontinent
was partitioned into two countries, India and Pakistan. The idea
was that Hindus and Sikhs would occupy India, and Muslims would
occupy Pakistan. But unfortunately the partition wasn't "clean,"
in the sense that there were both Hindus and Muslims on both sides
of the partition line. The result was one of the most massive
and bloodiest battle of the 20th century, the 1947 Partition War.
The preceding generational crisis war, when India was a British colony
and there was no Pakistan, was the 1857 anti-British rebellion, also
also called India's First War of Independence from the British
colonial power. What started out as protests related to the Hindu
veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational crisis
war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')"
)
So the 1857 rebellion and the 1947 Partition War were the last two
generational crisis wars, and India is overdue for a new one.
The current communal violence in Delhi is extremely disturbing, and
in this generational Crisis era, it is possible that the Delhi
violence will escalate into war.
Dear Reader, if you get the feeling that the world is coming apart at
the seams, you're right. That's what happens during a generational
Crisis era. Winston Churchill referred to a similar period prior to
WW II as "The Gathering Storm." We're seeing a "gathering storm"
today, and it's possible that the growing Delhi violence in India will
be the trigger for a much larger war.
****
**** The generational 'Democide Pattern'
****
As I've developed generational theory and Generational Dynamics, I've
seen a particular pattern occur over and over in dozens of countries.
I've decided to adopt the name "Democide Pattern" for this pattern,
even though the original author of the term "democide," R. J. Rummel,
used it to mean mass slaughter of a segment of a country's population
by the government.
I'm using the same word in an expanded sense, to include things like
torture, rape, jailings, executions, and discrimination targeting a
segment of the population. This pattern occurs in countries in the
decades following a generational crisis war which is also a civil war.
Regular readers know that I've written several times about the
differences that depend on whether the preceding crisis war was an
external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war
between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, when the war
ends, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further
contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the
latter case, the two populations continue to live with each other when
the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the
same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge
continue at a very personal level.
In the past I've described in general terms what happens, but now
I'm using the term "Democide Pattern" to describe the particular
behaviors that occur. After a generational crisis ethnic or
tribal civil war ends, the winning side gets control of the
government. There's usually some sort of peace agreement at
the end of the war, where the winning tribe promises not to
discriminate against the losing tribe, but that agreement always
falls apart when the losing tribe begins to gain political power.
I'll write more about this at a later date, but here is a summary
of the behaviors that we see in country after country:
- Hate speech and inflammatory speeches
- Job discrimination
- Extrajudial jailinsgs
- Torture, rape
- Collective punishment for individual crimes
- Goon squads attacking the losing tribe
- Organized mobs attacking the losing tribe
- Pogroms attacking the losing tribe -- police stand by an
watch as members of the winning tribe attack the losing tribe.
India has adopted most of these behaviors targeting Muslims.
A standard technique is for the government to continually discriminate
and incite violence against the losing tribe, in order to provoke some
kind of violent or terrorist act in response. This provides the
excuse for the government to collective punishment against everyone in
the losing tribe.
The extreme example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the
worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far this century. But
I've also described the same phenomenon, with varying levels of
violence, with Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi,
Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in
Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad
in Syria, Hun Sen in Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka.
Sources:
- More than a dozen killed, hundreds injured as New Delhi riots overshadow Trump visit (Reuters, 25-Feb-2020)
- Delhi riots: City tense after Hindu-Muslim clashes leave 23 dead (BBC, 26-Feb-2020)
- Why Delhi violence has echoes of the Gujarat riots (BBC, 26-Feb-2020)
- Death Toll Rises to 24 From Delhi Riots During Trump Trip (AP, 26-Feb-2020)
- Delhi violence: A story of politics, police and riot-ready mob (India Today, 26-Feb-2020)
- 2020 Delhi Riots Nothing Like 1984 (New Delhi TV, 26-Feb-2020)
- PDF: Report of joint inquiry into the causes and impact of the 1984 riots (Unipune, pdf, Dec-1984)
- At Epicentre Of Delhi Riots, How A Mohalla Of Hindus And Muslims Kept Peace (New Delhi TV, 26-Feb-2020)
- Delhi riots neither designed by Modi govt, nor Islamic conspiracy. It’s far more dangerous (The Print, India, 26-Feb-2020)
- Delhi Riots: BJP Brass Focuses on Congress Reaction, Local Leaders Continue to Polarise (The Wire, India, 26-Feb-2020)
Related Articles:
- India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War (17-Dec-2019)
- 'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians (06-Nov-2008)
- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister (15-Sep-2013)
- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Delhi, Citizenship Amendment Act, CAA,
Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh, Buddhist, Muslim,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Ahmadis, Sufis,
Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP,
Hindutva, Hindu nationalists, Gujarat, Sikhs,
Partition War, War of Independence,
Democide pattern, R. J. Rummel
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
