Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Turkey in crisis after Syrian airstrike kills 33 Turkish soldiers

• Little boy in Idlib, targeted by al-Assad as a terrorist

Turkey's government, led by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held an
emergency meeting of ministers and senior security officials on
Thursday evening to decide how to respond after an airstrike by the
Bashar al-Assad regime in Idlib, Syria, killed dozens of Turkish
soldiers, with reports giving the number between 22 and 33.

Saturday is the deadline day that Erdogan has specified for weeks for
Syrian forces to retreat to a previously agreed ceasefire line, behind
Turkey's military outposts in Idlib, also part of the same agreement.

But now, two days before the deadline, Syria's airstrikes are a major
escalation in the war, and a "casus belli" that Turkey will not
be able to ignore, even if it wanted to. Since Iran and Russia are
backing Syria, this could logically lead to war between Turkey and
Russia, for the first time since World War I. However, in recent
speeches and actions by Erdogan, it seems clear that Turkey would not
hesitate to fight Syrian forces to drive them back, all the way to
Damascus if necessary, but that Turkey does not want a war with
Russia.

Russia, on the other hand, is aggressively backing Syrian forces in
Idlib, apparently with the expectation that Turkey will retreat and
give al-Assad control of all of Idlib, with resulting slaughter and
ethnic cleansing of millions of al-Assad's Sunni Arab political
enemies, most of whom are children, and most of the rest of whom are
women. Al-Assad calls them all "terrorists," and considers them to be
cockroaches to be exterminated. Russia and Syria have both been
specifically targeting schools, hospitals and residential homes in
order to force the ethnic cleansing as quickly and thoroughly as
possible.

So Turkey does not want war with Russia, and Russia does not want war
with Turkey, but powerful generational forces are taking control,
and pushing them to war.

If we compare these leaders, you may not like Erdogan, but he's the
most honest of the politicians since he takes credit or blame for what
he does. Bashar al-Assad is a vicious psychopathic monster, but he's
also honest, in that he makes it clear that he has no hesitation to
slaughter millions of innocent Sunni Arab women and children in Idlib,
and become a war criminal. To him they are, after all, just
cockroaches.

As usual, Vladimir Putin never opens his mouth except that total
bullshit pours out onto the floor. He says he wants peace in Idlib,
but what he says is always garbage. He couldn't care less about
peace. So what does he want?

According to analyst Pavel Felgenhauer:

Quote: "It seems the Kremlin has seriously underestimated
Erdogan’s resolve to push back against pro-al-Assad forces while
doing his best to avoid a direct clash with Russia (apparently
mistaken by Moscow as a sign of Erdogan’s weakness).

This is also my own conclusion, although I would add to this
conclusion that it doesn't matter what Putin wants, since there are
powerful generational forces driving the situation.

My conclusion also is that Putin's fantasy for victory in Idlib is
that Turkey is finally forced to open the border and allow millions of
Syrian refugees to cross into Turkey, and then continue traveling on
into Europe. Putin would consider millions of Syrian refugees, many
with coronavirus infections, pouring into Europe to be a major victory
over Europe.

So it seems that all the relevant parties have made irrevesible
choices, and we should see the results over the weekend.

---- Sources:

-- 22 Turkish soldiers killed in Syrian gov't air raid in Idlib
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/t...19672.html
(Al-Jazeera, 27-Feb-2020)

-- Syria war: 22 Turkish troops killed in airstrike in Idlib
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51667717
(BBC, 27-Feb-2020)

-- At least 34 Turkish soldiers killed during airstrikes in Idlib
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1634221/middle-east
(Arab News, 27-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey strikes Russian, Assad regime bastion Latakia, other targets
in Syria with missiles
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turk...syria/news
(Daily Sabah, Ankara, 28-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey will no longer stop Syrian migrant flow to Europe, official
says
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turk...-says/news
(Daily Sabah, Ankara, 28-Feb-2020)

-- Idlib Syria / Russia and Turkey Drift Toward War
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-and...oward-war/
(Jamestown, 27-Feb-2020)

---- Related Articles:

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200209


** 22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140122


** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125