Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
  
• Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations
  

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**** Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
****


Medical staff with the coffin containing the body of Assunta Pastore, 87, who died at the Garden hotel in Laigueglia, north-west Italy, on Sunday. (AP)

On Sunday, the United States, Australia and Thailand reported first
deaths from coronavirus, while the Italy death toll rose to 34, and
Dominican Republic reported its first case.

****
**** Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations
****

It's now the first week of March, and the shape of the coronavirus
crisis is becoming clearer. I've read or listened to literally
hundreds of reports, and these are my personal conclusions:

• Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) shows no signs of stopping.
  
  
• China claims that it's stopped in China, but no one knows what
  will happen when the draconian restrictions are lifted that are
  currently keeping tens of millions of people quarantined and
  isolated.
  
  
• Many people are hoping that the warm summer weather will stop
  spread of the virus, but Singapore, which is on the equator and has
  warm summer weather, just had several new confirmed cases in the last
  couple of days. And even if the summer weather slowed the spread of
  the virus, history shows that it would return in full force in the
  fall.
  
  
• Sooner or later, everyone in the world will be exposed to
  Covid-19. 80% of the cases will be mild. Another 10% will be
  serious, but curable. The other 10% will be extremely serious, and
  will lead to some deaths. Most of the deaths will occur among the
  elderly, or people with a history of smoking.
  
  
• Infection does not provide protection from reinfection.
  Reinfected patients have a high death rate.
  
  
• When someone dies of coronavirus, it usually means that there is a
  cluster of undiagnosed cases behind it.
  
  
• Coronavirus is an economic disaster for China. China is overdue
  for a massive anti-government rebellion, the first since Mao's
  Communist Revolution civil war, and coronavirus could be the
  trigger.
  
  
• Businesses will be looking for ways to repair their broken supply
  chains as quickly as possible, by seeking alternate suppliers.
  
  
• Most companies will be at least partially back in business by
  summer, looking for ways -- robotics, working at home, hazmat suits,
  etc. -- to get things going again.
  
  
• Each country will use containment as its first strategy --
  tracking and testing travelers and others who might be infected,
  identifying others by means of contact tracing, and requiring those
  who fail the test to be isolated and quarantined in the homes or hotel
  rooms.
  
  
• When the containment strategy fails, each country will move to a
  mitigation and risk reduction strategy -- close public gatherings,
  encourage or force large populations of people to stay at home, shut
  down all mass travel -- air, bus and train. In Japan, for example, a
  closely scrutinized decision will be about the Tokyo Olympics which,
  if canceled, would have devastating consequences for Japan's
  economy.
  
  
• The objective of both the containment and mitigation strategies is
  to buy as much time as possible until a vaccine can be deployed.
  
  
• Lots of companies are working on vaccines, and something may be
  available for test purposes in a few weeks. However, it will be at
  least a year before a vaccine can be widely deployed.
  
  
• Wall Street stocks are in the biggest bubble in history, and the
  same is true of stock exchanges in many other countries. It is 100%
  certain that this bubble will burst at some point, leading to a global
  panic and financial crisis. It's possible that the Coronavirus crisis
  will be the trigger.
  
  
• All in all, it will take about a year for the world to return to
  "normal," but that will be a "new normal," living side-by-side with
  Coronavirus. However, WW III and a global financial crisis are likely
  to begin within a year. By 2021, the world will be a very different
  place.

General advice from the experts: Wash your hands, cough into your
sleeve, and don't touch your face.

Source:

• Coronavirus latest updates (Guardian, 1-Mar-2020)

Related Article:

• Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) (21-Feb-2020)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19,
Singapore, Japan, Summer Olympics, South Korea

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John J. Xenakis
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