Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(03-02-2020, 06:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

• If Coronavirus were just like the ordinary flu, then why has
  China quarantined tens of millions of people?  And why is China's
  economy near collapse, with millions of businesses shut down?
  

Because China is an authoritarian country, and the rulers have more scope to overreact.  As for the millions of businesses shut down, that's a result of the governmental overreaction.  Did you suddenly believe that the Chinese Communist Party had somehow become sensible and rational just for this one occasion?

Quote:

• If Coronavirus were just like the ordinary flu, then why did the
  Japanese quarantine the Diamond Princess cruise ship for weeks, and
  why is Japan considering canceling the Tokyo Olympics?
  

Because Japan would prefer to quarantine all cruise ships that way even for ordinary flu, in order to minimize any potential impact on their own population; they just can't do it for ordinary flu for political reasons.  In fact, if it weren't for political realities, the Japanese would prefer to prohibit any foreigner from ever setting foot in Japan.  They certainly don't care about nonjapanese getting sick on the cruise ship, and they care more about the Japanese that stay home than about those that travel on some foreign cruise ship.

Quote:

• If Coronavirus were just like the orginary flu, then why is every
  country in the world setting up travel restrictions, forbidding large
  gatherings of people, and quarantining many people, even those who
  haven't yet shown symptoms?
  

Because when the public gets worried about something, governments prefer to be seen as "doing something", even if it turns out what they're doing is counterproductive. In the context of the current crisis period, there's also the fact that the population is xenophobic so any actions that exclude foreigners are likely to be seen positively.

Incidentally, CDC numbers imply that in 6-8% of flu hospitalizations this winter, the patient has died.  In previous years, it has ranged up to 25% based on figures at WebMD.  It would be interesting to know how many of the "confirmed" Covid-19 cases have involved hospitalization - I suspect a high fraction, since the bar for getting tested has been pretty high - so that we could get some apples to apples comparisons of fatality rates between seasonal flu and Covid-19.  I suspect we'd find the fatality rates are in the same range, and that Covid-19 may even be lower.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pre...imates.htm