03-06-2020, 05:21 PM
** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Singapore deaths
I'm not sure it makes sense to compare the number of deaths in
Singapore to those in South Korea and Japan. Singapore is tiny
compared to the other two, and I understand has a very authoritarian
government that can isolate people a lot more quickly.
However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths. The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus. A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms. But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths. Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall.
I was listening to a discussion of vaccines on the BBC today, and
an interview with a the head of a company making a new high-tech
vaccine that can be deployed more quickly than existing vaccines.
It will go through stage 1 and stage 2 tests this year. When
can it be deployed? "We hope, early next year."
(03-05-2020, 09:09 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Singapore has had no deaths, though, compared to countries that
> get winter like Japan and Korea. Possibly the best policy would
> be to hold it off as much as we can until May, then try to get
> everyone to get it and recover by September.
I'm not sure it makes sense to compare the number of deaths in
Singapore to those in South Korea and Japan. Singapore is tiny
compared to the other two, and I understand has a very authoritarian
government that can isolate people a lot more quickly.
However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths. The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus. A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms. But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths. Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall.
I was listening to a discussion of vaccines on the BBC today, and
an interview with a the head of a company making a new high-tech
vaccine that can be deployed more quickly than existing vaccines.
It will go through stage 1 and stage 2 tests this year. When
can it be deployed? "We hope, early next year."