03-07-2020, 10:02 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-07-2020, 10:39 AM by Warren Dew.)
(03-06-2020, 05:21 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Singapore deaths
(03-05-2020, 09:09 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Singapore has had no deaths, though, compared to countries that
> get winter like Japan and Korea. Possibly the best policy would
> be to hold it off as much as we can until May, then try to get
> everyone to get it and recover by September.
I'm not sure it makes sense to compare the number of deaths in
Singapore to those in South Korea and Japan. Singapore is tiny
compared to the other two, and I understand has a very authoritarian
government that can isolate people a lot more quickly.
More authoritarian than China? China had plenty of deaths. I compared to South Korea and Japan because of similar technology levels, but the truth is South Korea and Japan are a lot more authoritarian than the US, too.
Quote:However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths. The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus. A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms. But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths. Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall.
My argument isn't that the spread will slow in the Summer; Singapore has had cases, too. My argument is that Covid-19 appears to be less deadly in warm weather. The ideal strategy, ignoring vaccines for the moment, would be to try to get everyone exposed and as many infected as possible during the summer, when they won't die.
