03-07-2020, 10:38 AM
(03-07-2020, 08:24 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Mar-2020 World View: Covid-19 Vaccine
MrGuest Wrote:> Why are we so confident that there will be a vaccine? From what
> I've read we've never actually succeeded in developing a vaccine
> for previous coronaviruses. I suppose now that the whole world is
> focused on COVID-19 and plenty of money and resources will be
> thrown at the process the chances are better, but still it's hard
> to predict when the major breakthrough will occur.
As you suggest, there are a lot of companies working on a Covid-19
vaccine, but you make a good point: They might all fail.
Here are two articles on current developments:
These nine companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines
— here’s where things stand
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-...2020-03-06
A simple guide to the vaccines and drugs that could fight coronavirus
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2...-drug-cure
The last coronavirus for which people worked on a vaccine was SARS, which like Covid-19 was a bat origin coronavirus. At least one researcher had a vaccine ready for clinical trials but never got funding because SARS had declined by then.
Common colds are the most common coronavirus diseases. The reason vaccines are not typically developed for them is that they mutate even faster than the flu. Just like a flu vaccine one year is typically rendered ineffective by flu mutations by the next year, coronaviruses mutate faster than the vaccines can keep up.
However, the whole reason the common cold is less deadly than Covid-19 is because of how mutation works: the common cold has mutated to be less deadly, so that it will be more easily spread. If Covid-19 mutates, it's likely to become less deadly too.
Then there's the question about how deadly Covid-19 actually is. Up until recently, we had no idea how many cases were being missed because of minimal or no symptoms.
South Korea has started random testing of the general population regardless of symptoms. They're now testing 10,000 people per day, with about 500 new cases found per day. Unfortunately I can't find a breakdown between random tested and nonrandom testing, but if many of the new cases are found by random testing, that suggests that 5% of the South Korean population may currently have Covid-19. That would be 2.5 million people. Compared to 2.5 million people, South Korea's 48 deaths would be less than a 0.002% fatality rate.
That might not be much higher than the chances of dying from complications of a common cold.
