Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Mar-2020 World View: Seasonal flu vs Covid-19

Guest Wrote:> I’m certainly not an expert, but here’s the things I’ve noticed:

> 1. Our current flu shot’s efficiency is about 30 to 60%. These are
> the best vaccines they have; the same ones are given to movie
> stars, nobility, politicians and middle class alike. None of them
> are 100% efficient. This means that out of every 100 people who
> gets a flu shot, 40 to 70 of them will still get the flu. The most
> logical explanation as to why vaccines are so inefficient is virus
> mutation. By the time the vaccine is developed and tested and sent
> out to be manufactured, the virus has mutated. That does not mean
> the vaccine won’t protect you; it means the potency is less
> effective against a virus that is fighting back. The un-mutated
> virus is a heavy bag and the mutated virus is a boxing match.

> 2. There are usually 2 to 4 strains every year covered by the flu
> shot. Each strain in it may have more or less efficiency than
> another strain in it. Depending on the strain that’s going around,
> you may have strong efficiency protection or just a little. All in
> all, and simply put, they work together to help keep you from
> contracting one strain when you might have contracted another
> strain. And also simply put, if you are one of the 40 to 70 who
> contract a strain in the flu shot, the vaccine can help you fight
> off the strain you contracted, so the severity is not as bad as it
> could be. I’m a pro boxer and the virus is an amateur. You are not
> totally out of luck if you contract a strain not covered by your
> flu shot. There is evidence that your body develops defenses to
> help you fight against them too. However, there is no reporting
> that I’m aware of that this is the case or not the case with
> Covid-19. Since older and/or people with preexisting conditions
> are more likely to get flu shots, I suspect this is not the case
> for Covid-19. I’ve heard many health reporters saying wash your
> hands, stay 6 feet away from people, don’t touch your face,
> etc. I’ve not heard one of them say, oh and by the way, get a flu
> shot. I don’t know, maybe they did but I didn’t hear it. But who
> knows, the flu shot might be the reason Covid-19 is not killing
> 25% of us. This could be an even match.

> 3. So to put this in context, I had my flu shot this year. I have
> a 30 to 60% chance of catching that nasty flu that has been going
> around my city since November and still is.. So far, I’ve been
> lucky or protected or both to not get it. I attribute some of my
> luck to my vigilance. If I do catch one of those viruses, my body
> has defenses to help me from getting very ill from them and I have
> less than a 0.1% chance I will die. On the other hand, I have a
> 100% chance that I will get Covid-19 when I am exposed to it and
> vigilance may not be enough. If I get it, there is a 20% chance it
> will be severe and a 3 to 4% chance I will die. By the time there
> is a vaccine for it, it might mutate. I am fighting a boxer who is
> way better than me.

> 4. A mask won’t protect you but it will protect health care
> workers on the front line. You don’t need one because they don’t
> have enough. My boxing opponent cheats.

> 5. What happened to 24 days for exposure to symptoms? It got a lot
> of press for a while. Could it be because 24 days is VERY hard and
> costly to quarantine? My trainer just bet against me.

> 6. They are telling us that it is unlikely that a person without
> symptoms is contagious. Well, tell that to all those people on the
> cruise ships who were exposed before anyone had symptoms and then
> they died. How many people did we allow into this country because
> they didn’t have a fever? Shadow boxers, everywhere.

> 7. Excuse me, but my opponent just pulled my boxers down. Dirty
> fighter.

This is very interesting information and analysis. Thank you for
posting it.

I've never had a flu shot. I had some really bad cases of the flu
when I was a kid, but by my 20s, they were never serious. I would
get a very severe stomachache, so I would go to bed with a heating
pad on my stomach, and within a couple of hours I would be OK except
possibly for a head cold -- and I took care of that with Vitamin C as
I've previously described.

So every year the doctor asks me whether I want a flu shot, and he
lectures me on why it's important, and I say that I've never had a
flu shot, and don't really want to get started now, since I believe
that multiple illnesses have helped me build up immunity to the
seasonal flu. I sometimes wonder if they should take some of my
blood and use it to develop a "universal flu vaccine."

So this has made me personally very blasé about Covid-19. I don't
take any particular precautions, except that I do wash my hands
more often than I used to. And when something on my face itches,
I scratch the itch, even though I'm not supposed to.

So you say, "On the other hand, I have a 100% chance that I will get
Covid-19 when I am exposed to it," and I feel the same way. I suppose
that I could wash my hands more often, or that I could just suffer
with the itch and let it drive me crazy, but basically I don't believe
that it would make any difference except, perhaps, to postpone getting
Covid-19 for a few extra days. But like you, I expect to get it. And
since I'm an "elderly" person, there's a good chance that I'm going to
die from it. A doctor once told me, in answer to a question: "John,
you have to die of something." So why not Covid-19?