03-10-2020, 09:33 AM
** 10-Mar-2020 World View: Wuhan Coronavirus Covid-19 transmission
On CNBC this morning, there was an interview with Michael Osterholm,
Director of University Of Minnesota Center For Infectious Disease
Research and Policy, in which he was critical of people who were
underestimating the potency of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Excerpts (my
transcription):
As usual these days, there's always something to laugh at. I live
near Kendall Square in Cambridge, where there are thousands of young
MIT students mixed in with old people, many of whom have lived there
for decades. I can hardly wait to see how the Cambridge police are
going to keep people like me from being exposed to the virus.
Nonetheless, Osterholm's highly pessimistic analysis is consistent
with the most pessimistic of all the hundreds of thousands or reports
that I've heard and read in the last few months.
As I'm typing this, I'm listening some financial analyst idiot saying
that the virus epidemic has already been resolved in China, and so all
we have to do is follow "the Chinese playbook," and the whole problem
will be resolved in America in a few weeks. This is what passes
for intelligent analysis on tv these days.
A lot of people on tv are saying the crisis should end in a few weeks
because of warmer spring and summer weather. I've been saying for
weeks that the experience in Singapore, which is right on the equator,
does not support that view. Here are some articles that discuss that
view:
-- Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures,
but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/...ank-summer
(SCMP, 8-Mar-2020)
-- WHO urges countries to make containing coronavirus 'highest
priority'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt...SKBN20T2BH
(Reuters, 6-Mar-2020)
According to these studies, the best we can hope for is that transmission
will slow down in the summer, but not stop. And anyway, the weather
will be cold again in the fall.
According to the World Health Organization:
The corollary is that there is no reason to believe that stock prices
have reached a bottom. A lot of investors are obviously living in a
dreamland, and at some point the truth will sink in that this crisis
will not be over until next year at the earliest, and that realization
will be an enormous shock to them, and may result in a full-scale
financial panic at that time.
P.S.: For those of you who enjoy thinking about apocalyptic scenarios
(and you know who you are), how about this one: Donald Trump and Joe
Biden are campaigning for president, and both of them die from Wuhan
Coronavirus this summer.
On CNBC this morning, there was an interview with Michael Osterholm,
Director of University Of Minnesota Center For Infectious Disease
Research and Policy, in which he was critical of people who were
underestimating the potency of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Excerpts (my
transcription):
Quote:> "This virus is a highly infectious virus. There was a
> study released yesterday that showed people are highly infectious
> before they ever get sick, the virus level is over 1000 times
> higher in their throats than it is with SARS. And in a sense,
> this is just gonna keep spreading. We have to stop fooling people
> into thinking that this only by close contact or I have to be
> within two or three feet. We're gonna see much more transmission,
> and our job I think is to get the country through this -- is make
> sure that they understand is that there will be widespread
> transmission of this virus around the country and that what we
> have to do is keep people who are at high risk of having bad
> outcomes -- older, underlying health conditions -- from being
> exposed. ...
> We've really not set the agenda for the American public in a
> realistic way. Right now we're approaching this like it's a
> Washington DC blizzard -- for a couple of days we're shut down.
> This is actually a coronavirus winter, and we're in the first
> week. We're gonna see transmission for many, many more weeks to
> come. We have to prepare for that."
As usual these days, there's always something to laugh at. I live
near Kendall Square in Cambridge, where there are thousands of young
MIT students mixed in with old people, many of whom have lived there
for decades. I can hardly wait to see how the Cambridge police are
going to keep people like me from being exposed to the virus.
Nonetheless, Osterholm's highly pessimistic analysis is consistent
with the most pessimistic of all the hundreds of thousands or reports
that I've heard and read in the last few months.
As I'm typing this, I'm listening some financial analyst idiot saying
that the virus epidemic has already been resolved in China, and so all
we have to do is follow "the Chinese playbook," and the whole problem
will be resolved in America in a few weeks. This is what passes
for intelligent analysis on tv these days.
A lot of people on tv are saying the crisis should end in a few weeks
because of warmer spring and summer weather. I've been saying for
weeks that the experience in Singapore, which is right on the equator,
does not support that view. Here are some articles that discuss that
view:
-- Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures,
but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/...ank-summer
(SCMP, 8-Mar-2020)
-- WHO urges countries to make containing coronavirus 'highest
priority'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt...SKBN20T2BH
(Reuters, 6-Mar-2020)
According to these studies, the best we can hope for is that transmission
will slow down in the summer, but not stop. And anyway, the weather
will be cold again in the fall.
According to the World Health Organization:
Quote:> "We do not know yet what the activity or the behaviour
> of this virus will be in different climatic conditions. We have to
> assume that the virus will continue to have the capacity to
> spread.
> It is a false hope to say yes it will just disappear in
> summertime, like influenza virus. ... There is no evidence right
> now to suggest that that will happen."
The corollary is that there is no reason to believe that stock prices
have reached a bottom. A lot of investors are obviously living in a
dreamland, and at some point the truth will sink in that this crisis
will not be over until next year at the earliest, and that realization
will be an enormous shock to them, and may result in a full-scale
financial panic at that time.
P.S.: For those of you who enjoy thinking about apocalyptic scenarios
(and you know who you are), how about this one: Donald Trump and Joe
Biden are campaigning for president, and both of them die from Wuhan
Coronavirus this summer.
