Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Mar-2020 World View: Skepticism continues about China's coronavirus figures

• Is China telling the truth?

In America and the West, businesses are scrambling to do what it takes
to stay in business. If required, they're canceling events or closing
business locations to prevent spread of the virus. They're reworking
supply chains, implementing technology, dispersing employees or having
them work from home, and so forth. This is standard behavior in a
country like the US with free markets, where each business wants to
maximize profits and keep employees busy and happy. There are similar
motivations for governments and governmental organizations, who are
primarily motivated to maintain stability in their constituents.

The same sorts of motivations apply to businesses and organizations in
China, but they have an additional motivation: Meet the demands of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to have no more Wuhan Coronavirus
infections.

I'm reminded of what happened in Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in
1958-59, where each region was required to meet quotas for crop
harvests. Here's how I described what happened in my book, "War
Between China and Japan":

Quote: "Early in 1959, and again in July 1959, officials in
Mao's government had begun to see that the program was failing.
Their objections were rewarded with punishment. Mao was
determined to follow his ideological course, no matter what else
happened. The result was disaster.

The individual peasants and managers were required to report the
size of the crop harvests up the line to the central government,
but there was no way to guarantee that the reports were accurate.

On the one hand, there was no economic incentive for the farmers
and managers to provide accurate reports, since everyone in a
socialist society is paid the same ("according to his need").

On the other hand, there was no independent check of the crop
harvest estimates. If the population had been much smaller, then
the central government might have been able to send out enough
bureaucrats to check the reports, or at least do spot checks. But
with a billion peasants, no such meaningful checks were possible.

For the farmers and managers themselves, there was plenty of
political incentive to overreport the crop harvest results.

As a result, even though actual crop yield in 1959 was a little
smaller than it had been in 1958, the crop reports added up to an
enormous increase in production, more than a doubling of output.

By the time that Chairman Mao was finally ready to accept the
situation, it was too late. There was too little food to feed
everyone, and tens of millions died of starvation."

So my feeling is that the current situation with coronavirus
infections is similar to Mao's Great Leap Forward. Individual
villages, towns and provinces are required to report the number of
virus infections up the line to the central government. But they
have no motivation to tell the truth, same as in Mao's day.

We know that the CCP is still censoring media, and punishing anyone
who dares to describe what's actually going on. It's quite likely
that any regional manager who reports an outbreak would be fired, or
even punished. So it seems quite likely that infections and outbreaks
are being hidden, or reported as other kinds of illnesses.

Here's one analysis from Thailand:

Quote: "China Continues To Lie? China Says No New Coronavirus
Cases Nationwide Outside Of Hubei!

Source: Coronavirus News Mar 10, 2020 2 days ago

Coronavirus Updates: China government authorities today announced
that there was no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases
outside of Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, for the
third straight day, while major Chinese cities remained on alert
for imported infections.

Seriously? Out of a population of 1.4 billion Chinese, where in
the rural sites, people are filthy with no proper regards for
hygiene standards or social behavior.

Doctors in provinces like Helionjang, Xinjiang, Henan and Shanxi
are telling a different story. According to a stringer,there is an
ever increasing amount of patients coming in with respiratory
symptoms but doctors have been given guidelines as to what
medications to prescribe and to admit them if serious but not to
conduct any diagnostic tests directly involved with Covid-19! A
check with hospitals in 4 provinces also showed that Covid-19 test
kits are not available in any of these hospitals.

Health authorities and medical entities have been given strict
warnings not to talk to the media and foreign entities while local
media have been prohibited from reporting on any local health
issues except official releases sent out to them.

Acording to the stringer, the Chinese government in its cover ups
has also started a massive PR programme including paying an
American writer who has been residing in Shanghai for years with
his Chinese wife and adopted children to write a few fake
conspiracy theory articles claiming that the new coronavirus
originated from the US. The Chinese government is also spending a
lot in buying sponsored content and ads on various newspapers
worldwide including one despicable English media in Thailand to
promote China discreetly.

The Chinese authorities reported that there 19 new cases of
coronavirus infections on Monday (March 9), the National Health
Commission said on Tuesday, down from 40 cases a day earlier.

Of the new cases, 17 were in Wuhan, the provincial capital of
Hubei which is under lockdown, while one was in Beijing and one
other in Guangdong due to people arriving from abroad, according
to the health authority.

Besides that, there was no new cases nationwide besides Hubei for
the last 3 days and that all new cases were basically foreigners
bringing the virus into China!"

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/ch...from-china-

This describes exactly what I would expect from China. The Chinese
lie about everything. They've hidden the size of this epidemic for
months, and they censor any negative information. There have been
several reports that factories are re-opening as ghosts, with no
production but using electricity to give the appearance of being
normal. Furthermore, the CCP officials are afraid that they're going
to be blamed for what's happening. The full story has yet to be told.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019. Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/