Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Mar-2020 World View: Herd immunity: Get coronavirus infection to get it over with

Navigator Wrote:> It may actually be a blessing to get infected by it early on,
> before the masses are infected, so that you can get top notch
> treatment. When the masses get it, the sick will be put on cots in
> gymnasiums and tent cities, and either your body will fight it and
> you get better (along with gained immunity) or you die.

Should anyone be purposely infected with Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)
in order to get it over with and return to normal life?

This strategy would seem to have a great deal of appeal, especially to
young people who typically do not become seriously sick. Once you're
over it, you can stop worrying about touching your face and washing
your hands, and just get on with life. Even for old people like
myself, it's tempting to get it over with one way or the other.

There are officials in the UK who are proposing exactly this strategy
on a mass basis for the entire population. It's called "herd
immunity." Let the entire population of a town become infected, and
then the town is immune.

According to psychologist Dr David Halpern, this herd immunity
strategy may become necessary, as more and more people become
infected:

Quote: "There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic
flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where you’ll
want to cocoon, you’ll want to protect those at-risk groups so
that they basically don’t catch the disease and by the time they
come out of their cocooning, herd immunity’s been achieved in the
rest of the population."

In other words, isolate the old people somewhere, then infect all the
young people, and after they recover, let all the old people out.
Interesting strategy.

It seems likely that, sooner or later, every person in the world will
be exposed, and the spread of the virus will only be stopped when a
vaccine becomes available and widely deployed, most likely some time
late in 2021. So when coronavirus starts spreading through a town,
the herd immunity strategy -- lock up the old people and let the young
people get sick -- might be the only possible strategy.

All of this is based on one huge assumption: If you get sick from
coronavirus and recover, then you'll be immune from reinfection.

This assumption has not been proven, and it's being debated. It seems
likely that a patient is immune from reinfection immediately after
recovery. But how long does that immunity last? It might be years,
but it might be only months or weeks. Also, even if you remain
immune, then there might be new strains. According to Anthony
Costello, a pediatrician and former World Health Organization
director:

Quote: Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it
like [ordinary seasonal] flu where new strains emerge each year
needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune
response."

So the "herd immunity" debate is interesting and ongoing, and as
Covid-19 continues to spread exponentially, a lot of places will have
to use the herd immunity strategy whether they want to or not.

P.S.: Some speculation: This isn't mentioned in any of the sources,
but there's good reason to believe that this strategy is being used
all across China. We know that coronavirus cases in rural areas are
not being reported, so it seems possible that the Chinese are letting
everyone get infected, and then see who survives.

---- Sources:

-- Herd immunity: will the UK's coronavirus strategy work?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/m...ategy-work
(Guardian, London, 13-Mar-2020)

-- Can you get coronavirus twice?
https://thehill.com/changing-america/wel...irus-twice
(The Hill, 13-Mar-2020)

-- Coronavirus symptoms: Can you get coronavirus twice?
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/hea...eak-latest
(Daily Express, London, 14-Mar-2020)