03-16-2020, 10:49 AM
** 16-Mar-2020 World View: Wuhan Coronavirus Covid-19: Flattening the curve
Almost every news report these days contains the phrase "Flattening
the curve." This refers to postponing Covid-19 infections for as long
as possible, using such techniques as closing schools and stores,
locking down cities and making everyone stay at home.
The idea is that if everyone gets sick at once, then hospitals will
be overwhelmed. But if the infection rate can be slowed down,
then hospitals will be able to keep up.
Medium.com has collected together some "Flattening the curve" graphs.
![[Image: 0*ffWfNhRdazo_HCFR]](https://miro.medium.com/max/1200/0*ffWfNhRdazo_HCFR)
The above graph illustrates the concept. If everyone gets sick at
once, then the "Healthcare system capacity" will be exceeded. But if
the same number of cases is spread over time, and the curve is
flattened, then according to this graph, the healthcare system will be
able to handle them.
Here's another one:
![[Image: 0*U8p2wc_K6APLgTeQ.gif]](https://miro.medium.com/max/1600/0*U8p2wc_K6APLgTeQ.gif)
The article does some calculations, and concludes that this won't
work unless the length of the flattened curve is a decade.
-- Graphics: Flattening the curve
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattenin...a324fe9727
(Medium, 16-Mar-2020)
Almost every news report these days contains the phrase "Flattening
the curve." This refers to postponing Covid-19 infections for as long
as possible, using such techniques as closing schools and stores,
locking down cities and making everyone stay at home.
The idea is that if everyone gets sick at once, then hospitals will
be overwhelmed. But if the infection rate can be slowed down,
then hospitals will be able to keep up.
Medium.com has collected together some "Flattening the curve" graphs.
- Static flattening graph
The above graph illustrates the concept. If everyone gets sick at
once, then the "Healthcare system capacity" will be exceeded. But if
the same number of cases is spread over time, and the curve is
flattened, then according to this graph, the healthcare system will be
able to handle them.
Here's another one:
- Dynamic flattening graph
The article does some calculations, and concludes that this won't
work unless the length of the flattened curve is a decade.
-- Graphics: Flattening the curve
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattenin...a324fe9727
(Medium, 16-Mar-2020)
