03-28-2020, 02:15 AM
(03-24-2020, 06:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Mar-2020 World View: History of wild stock market swings
The DJIA increased 11.37% on Tuesday, and commentators are pointing
out that this was the largest increase since 1933.
That's true, according to my DJIA historical page:
** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm
The following is a list of all the days when the DJIA increased by
more than 10%:
Code:
Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend)
----------------- -------------- ----------------
Wed 1929-10-30 258.47(+12.34%) (171% of 150.40)
Mon 1931-06-22 145.82(+11.90%) ( 89% of 162.13)
Tue 1931-10-06 99.34(+14.87%) ( 60% of 164.30)
Wed 1932-09-21 75.16(+11.36%) ( 43% of 171.68)
Wed 1933-03-15 62.10(+15.34%) ( 35% of 175.46)
Wed 1987-10-21 2027.85(+10.15%) ( 95% of 2128.8)
Mon 2008-10-13 9387.61(+11.08%) (169% of 5554.3)
Tue 2008-10-28 9065.12(+10.88%) (162% of 5564.8)
Tue 2020-03-24 20704.91(+11.37%) (220% of 9371.5)
And the following is a list of all the days when the DJIA decreased
by more than 10%:
Code:
Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend)
----------------- -------------- ----------------
Mon 1929-10-28 260.64(-13.47%) (173% of 150.36) Black Monday
Tue 1929-10-29 230.07(-11.73%) (152% of 150.38)
Mon 1931-10-05 86.48(-10.73%) ( 52% of 164.28)
Mon 1987-10-19 1738.74(-22.61%) ( 81% of 2128.2)
Mon 2020-03-16 20188.52(-12.93%) (215% of 9362.1)
So the wild swings that we've been seeing recently are not
good news, but are harbingers of a financial crisis, and possibly
a major panic and financial crisis.
And as long-time readers are well aware, the stock market is in a
bubble. Take a look at the "% of trend" column for two days
in March 2020. The DJIA is far above its trend value of around
9370. This shows how huge the stock market bubble is.
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI[/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]21,636.78[/color] −915.39 (4.06%)
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Mar 27, 5:12 PM EDT · [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)][color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Disclaimer[/color][/color][/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Do you want to bet? [/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]This looks like a sucker's rally to me. When the stock market takes a tumble for causes related to absurd P/E ratios, an inverted yield curve, and inadequate savings, the fall of the value of securities in general takes the path of a falling knife. Maybe the falling knife takes a short upward bounce after it hits a jutting object, but after that short bounce, down it goes again. Maybe day-traders can profit in such a market, but the only others who can profit are short-sellers.[/color]
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
