Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Fauci shocks everyone by predicting 100K to 200K deaths

Appearing on CNN on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci is predicting 100,000 to
200,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Fauci is today the leading American superstar expert on Covid-19,
considered the most authoritative voice in the nation. He is Director
of National Institute Of Allergy And Infectious Diseases. He appears
on television frequently, and he's part of president Donald Trump's
coronavirus task force, and he appears alongside Trump almost every
day in Trump's coronavirus press conferences, which are becoming "must
see tv."

Fauci was asked: "How many cases do you think the U.S. will reach? A
million cases, 10 million cases? Or are these -- we -- or do we not
even have any idea?"

Quote:> "You've got be realistic, and you've got to understand
> that you don't make the timeline, the virus makes the
> timeline. ...

> There are things called models. And when someone creates a model,
> they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and
> as accurate as your assumptions. And whenever the modelers come
> in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.

> Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I have never
> seen a model of the diseases that I have dealt where the
> worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot. ...

> I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, I would say between
> 100,000 and 200,000 [deaths]. But I don't want to be held to
> that. ... I mean, we're going to have millions of
> cases."

Fauci was trying to be reassuring, but when he said "I don't want to
be held to that," it's because even he doesn't believe what he's
saying.

There are 330 million Americans, and obviously there are going to be
many, many cases -- probably around 200 million cases. This would
lead to 2-4 million deaths, as I showed in my article comparing the
Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200322


As I showed in my article, today we're on exactly the same path as the
Spanish Flu pandemic, and there won't be any divergence until a
vaccine is deployed, which won't happen for over a year.

Those who doubt this should at least remember the following:

• New York city is the US epicenter right now, but there are new
  major hot spots in New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago, and they'll
  spread to other cities and towns.
  
  
• Once the harsh restrictions are lifted, which everyone seems to
  expect with a month or so, there will be a resurgence as infections
  spread again.
  
  
• The spread of Covid-19 may slow in warm summer weather, but the
  weather will be cold again in the fall, resulting in a "second
  wave."
  
  
• Just as the ordinary seasonal flu mutates every year, requiring a
  new vaccine every year, the Covid-19 virus is likely to mutate, with
  the result that survivors of the first wave will be sick again in the
  second wave in the fall.
  
  
• Other countries are not prepared to handle Covid-19 as well as the
  US and the West. The virus will sweep through countries in Africa,
  Central America and Asia soon, and then again in the second wave in
  the fall. These massive infections will seed outbreaks in other
  countries, including Western countries.

Guest 5 Wrote:> While I think that we’ll be okay if we’re talking a shutdown of
> just a couple more weeks, I have to say that I hope President
> Trump *doesn’t* listen to the “experts” who are telling him a 3-4
> month shutdown, because there’s no way society survives that in
> exchange for $1,000 or so a person.

This is absolutely correct, and it's the other side of the problem.

One goal is fewer deaths from the virus, and the other goal is fewer
deaths from starvation. Unfortunately, these two goals are in
conflict.

So Trump's policies are going to have to balance the risks from these
two goals.

Companies like Amazon, Kroger, CVS and Walgreen are hiring hundreds of
thousands of workers. This is tiny compared to the tens of millions
of job losses, but it begins a trend for how the "real economy" (as
opposed to the stock market) will begin to recover.

So we're looking at millions of Covid-19 deaths, tens of millions of
job losses, and hundreds of millions of Covid-19 infections. Those
are stark figures, and there is no possible Trump policy that will
satisfactorily handle the situation.

-- US could see millions of coronavirus cases and 100,000 or more
deaths, Fauci says
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/...index.html
(CNN, 29-Mar-2020)

-- CNN Transcript
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/2...tu.01.html
(CNN, 29-Mar-2020)