Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Apr-2020 World View: Purpose of lockdowns

Here are some responses to a UK web site reader:

Quote:> "I’m finding these lockdowns increasingly morally
> objectionable. So far I cannot point to one country where deaths
> rates are significantly higher than normal. I think Germany and
> Netherlands show the best example where this virus is only
> slightly more deadly than flu - by the end of this we will look
> back and say it probably was the same as flu. Except, that is the
> process we destroyed our economies and caused untold
> hardship."

At some level I sympathize with what you're saying, though for a
different reason. It's far from clear to me that the lockdowns will
do any good in preventing the worst. So why bother?

But the numbers really are worse. OK, if a million people get the
seasonal flu, then perhaps 1,000 people will die. If a million people
get Covid-19, then perhaps 5,000 people will die. So you might say
that's not enough difference to shut down the entire economy.

But the HUGE difference is in infection rate. If a person with
seasonal flu attends a big party, if he takes reasonable precautions
then he won't infect anyone. He won't be responsible for killing
anyone.

But if a person with Covid-19 attends a big party, then even with
reasonable precautions he may infect a dozen people, and one or two
may die. Hence the need for social distancing.

So the big difference is not in the death rate (which is bad enough),
but is in the infection rate. I strongly urge you to watch the
following youtube documentary:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

** 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

This is the scenario that today's officials are trying to avoid.

The thing to focus on when you watch the documentary is the "social
distancing" remediations that were used at that time, especially
during the second wave in the fall of 2018. These are almost
identical to the lockdowns being imposed today. However, did they do
any good? If I understand what the documentary is saying, then the
lockdowns failed in every city but San Francisco, where they were
imposed early and strictly enforced.

Incidentally, The stock market today is much worse off than it was in
1918. At that time, the S&P 500 P/E ratio was around 8, far below the
historic average of 14, indicating an undervalued market. Today, the
P/E ratio is above 20, indicating a substantial stock market bubble.

Quote:> "This seems especially true in emerging markets, I am
> very concerned with countries like India. How do we access the
> potential for violence and revolution?"

I think you're absolutely right. Modi's policy about migrant workers
in Delhi appears to be a complete disaster, and is causing a mass
migration similar to what happened in the 1947 Partition War. I do
not expect this to end well.

Quote:> "The comments boards in the UK still generally support
> the government, maybe they get away with declaring victory and
> move on, and the official inquiry into the debacle only comes out
> in a few years."

When a country faces an existential crisis, then the people put
politics aside and unite behind the government to fight for the
survival of the society and its way of life. That concept usually
applies to a war, but many people see the Covid-19 crisis as an
existential crisis, and so support the government.

Quote:> "In emerging markets where people are starving or
> being beaten, etc, this may not fly. Any view?"

Enforced lockdowns are really not possible where there is crowding and
poverty. A person who has to work every day to feed his family will
not be able to "self-isolate," but will have to go out and work, even
though it risks infection. And in a densely populated area, social
distancing won't really be possible.

Quote:> "How is Iran’s burn through working? I think Sweden
> and Brazil and doing something similar - any view on numbers
> there?"

Different places are employing different strategies. In the United
States, there are lockdowns in some states but not in others. I
believe that there are cultural differences.

• In some places, social distancing is occurring with little or
  no prompting, as in Sweden. But I expect that to change as the
  numbers of infections and deaths increase. We're approaching summer
  which may (or may not) slow the spread of Covid-19, so maybe Sweden
  will be able to hold off until fall, or maybe not.
  
  
• In Brazil, as I understand it, this is also the peak of the dengue
  fever season, and the two diseases are overwhelming hospitals. With
  winter approaching, this situation could worsen considerably.
  Bolsonaro seems to be betting that he can ignore the problem. I don't
  have the feeling this will end well. However, the silver lining is
  that Brazil's experience may provide the world with data on how things
  will go in the north in the fall, when the second wave strikes in
  winter.
  
  
• Other places, like the UK and US, are reasonably compliant with
  the lockdown guidance, and minimal enforcement is required.
  
  
• China, Iran and Russia are doing everything possible to hide the
  number of infections and deaths, and to find a way to blame the entire
  crisis on the US. In all three cases, it's believed that the actual
  number of cases is many times higher than is being reported. In
  China, numerous reports indicate that doctors are forced to re-label
  Covid-19 cases as something else. However, in the last week, China
  has shut down all movie theaters (again), and yesterday declared a
  total lockdown for Jia county in Henan province, which is north of
  Hubei and adjacent to it.
  
  
• In Iran, it's impossible to tell what going on since the
  government is lying about numbers, so the only information is
  anecdotal. However, satellite photos are showing huge mass graves,
  and Iran's state tv is saying that "millions could die."
  
  
• There are other places, like crowded refugee camps and crowded
  megacities, where local attempts will be made for "social distancing,"
  but the whole population might be quickly infected.

So that's a quick trip around the coronavirus world. Once again, I
suggest that you listen to the youtube documentary, and pay particular
attention to the containment, remediation and social distancing steps
that were taken, and how they're the same as what's happening today.