Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Jul-16 World View -- Nice France terror attack provokes desperate search for solutions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Implications of the attempted coup in Turkey
  
• Protests and violence continue across Indian-governed Kashmir
  
• Nice France terror attack provokes desperate search for solutions
  

****
**** Implications of the attempted coup in Turkey
****


Turkish people take to streets during coup attempt (Anadolu)

As of this writing on Friday evening ET, it's thought that
the coup has been defeated, but it's far from certain.

Several analysts have pointed out that it's United States policy
only to deal with democratically elected governments, and not
with coup governments. This policy was already severely tested
after the 2013 coup in Egypt, where the U.S. continued providing
military aid to the coup government. The issue of military aid
to Turkey would be raised if this coup is successful.

Even if the coup is defeated, the fact that Turkey's military is split
would have implications for the United States. The United States
military is operating out of Incirlik air force base for its
operations in Syria and Iraq. The US military and 1,500 US troops and
personnel, which depend on Turkey's military while in that base, might
potentially be in danger.

Another flash point is the Bosporus, the narrow body of water that
connects the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Russia's navy has a
substantial Black Sea fleet stationed in Crimea, which Russia invaded
and annexed in 2014, and if a Russian ship comes under some kind of
attack while traveling through the Bosporus, then Russia's military
might enter Turkey and intervene.

As I've written many times during the last ten years or so, based on a
Generational Dynamics analysis, in the coming Clash of Civilizations
world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries would be
one side, and India, Iran, the United States and the West would be on
the other side. However the coup turns out, this is direction in
which Turkey is headed. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
)

As I'm writing this on Friday night ET, it's not entirely clear who is
governing Turkey, since president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is holding a
news conference in Istanbul while there's still fighting in the
capital city Ankara. This coup attempt has exposed a great deal of
instability within Turkey, and that instability will continue for
weeks and months to come. Anadolu (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Protests and violence continue across Indian-governed Kashmir
****

Reports indicate that Indian security forces prevented tens of
thousands of people from attending mosques for Friday Prayers,
resulting in anti-India protests and clashes in dozens of places
across India-governed Kashmir.

Violent clashes began a week ago, following the death of Burhan Wani,
22, a commander in the separatist militia Hizbul Mujahideen, as I
described in "14-Jul-16 World View -- Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured"
.

India has declared Wani to be a "terrorist," but now Pakistan is
referring to Wani as a "martyr of the independence movement." This is
an allusion to the desires of some groups to have an independent
Kashmir, but most anti-India groups want Kashmir to be part of
Pakistan. At any rate, the "martyr" designation is inflaming the
violence in Kashmir.

Pakistan and India, including disputed Kashmir and Jammu, are in a
generational Crisis era, 69 years past the massive 1947 genocidal war
between Hindus and Sikhs versus Muslims that followed Partition, the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Being in a generational Crisis era means that the survivors of the
last genocidal crisis war are all gone, and the generations in control
today have no personal memory of the horrors of that war. This opens
the way for a new genocidal war to begin, and it's possible that the
current situation will spiral out of control into that situation.
Al Jazeera

****
**** Nice France terror attack provokes desperate search for solutions
****

The number of terror attacks has been growing. In just the past
month, there was a deadly July 7 shooting in Dallas, a massive terror
attack Dhaka on July 1, the Istanbul airport attack on June 28, and
the mass shooting in Orlando on June 12.

The natural reaction by politicians to the situation is to look for
ways to increase their own political power or get money, no matter
what the effect on others. This is evident in moronic ideological
"solutions to terrorism" that are being proposed. Here are some
examples:

• Gun control. On Friday, the morning after the Nice
  attack, Smith & Wesson stock went higher, as it always does after a
  terror attack, because gun owners know that President Obama is going
  to give another speech making the ridiculous call for gun control.
  Calls for gun control increase gun sales, as well as development of
  techniques for home-made guns, including 3D-printed guns. No proposed
  gun control law would have prevented any of the recent terror attacks.
  France has strong gun control laws, and yet the terrorist possessed
  guns and explosives. Also the attack in Nice was with a truck, and
  I'm waiting for someone to propose truck control.
  
  
• Ban all Muslims or interrogate all Muslims. This would
  create an enormous backlash domestically. It would be a farce, since
  it would entrap only ordinary Muslims, and real jihadists would learn
  to lie and evade any tests. The perpetrator in Nice was stopped by
  the police before the attack, and was asked why he was driving his
  truck in that area. He said that he was delivering ice cream for the
  celebrations, and the police left him alone. If he could so easily
  fool the French police, then any jihadist could learn to do the
  same.
  
  
• Solve the "core problems." People who make this proposal
  usually blame the U.S. for Muslim hostility, and claim that if we were
  nicer to Muslims, the attacks would stop. This farcical proposal is
  contradicted by almost eight years of President Obama's apology tours
  to Muslim countries. Another analyst made the equally idiotic claim
  blaming the terror attacks on the rise of the far-right in Europe.
  Last year, I explained in detail in "12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11"
  that the modern
  rise of al-Qaeda, the 9/11 attacks, and the increasing jihadist
  attacks since then were traced back to three major events that took
  place in 1979: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Iran's Great
  Islamic Revolution, and a huge Salafist attack on Mecca's Grand
  Mosque. The United States had absolutely nothing to do with the rise
  of jihadism, and it's extreme nationalist arrogance to even believe
  so. It would be nice if some of these self-styled "experts" who blame
  the US for everything would learn a little about what's going on in
  the world.
  
  
• Bomb Raqqa. I heard one military analyst say that we should
  "get serious" and wipe out ISIS by bombing and flattening Raqqa, their
  headquarters, even though hundreds of thousands of civilians would be
  killed. This is laughable beyond belief. ISIS would move its
  headquarters out of Raqqa. The huge civilian massacre would create an
  enormous international backlash. And it wouldn't even do any good.
  There are thousands of people killed in terrorist attacks every month
  -- in Syria, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, in India, in
  Bangladesh, and other countries, and none of that would be even
  touched by bombing Raqqa. There's a huge war being waged by Muslims
  against Muslims, with the number of Westerners killed being minuscule
  by comparison. This war is growing, and so the spillover with terror
  attacks in the West is going to grow as well, and flattening Raqqa
  would only make things worse.
  
  
• Dissolve the EU or civil war in the EU. I heard a couple of
  analysts say that the Nice attack should encourage other countries to
  leave the EU, suggesting that this would prevent jihadists from
  crossing borders. That doesn't make sense. If anything, the Nice
  attack will unify the EU, since they need each other to fight
  terrorism. The most that would happen is some additional border
  closings, or modification of the Schengen zone. But even so, that
  would not have prevented the Nice attack, where the perpetrators was a
  permanent resident and a "lone wolf" who didn't cross any
  borders.

The attack in Nice France makes a mockery of all "solutions." It was
perpetrated by a permanent resident of France, who lived in Nice with
a job as a delivery driver. He was known to the police as a petty
thief, but not as a terrorist. No one has claimed credit for the
attack, so it may have been perpetrated entirely locally. He has an
ex-wife and three kids, so that the attack might have been a way of
getting revenge against his ex-wife. He comes from a well-to-do
family in Tunisia, where his father was speaking to the press. He
expressed shock that his son had perpetrated this act. He said that
his son was mentally unstable, and that when he was off his meds he
would become extremely angry and break things. So the Nice France
attack might simply have been perpetrated by a madman.

From the point of Generational Dynamics, there is no solution to the
terrorism problem. The rise of terrorism is organic, coming from
young generations with limited, distorted views of the world. None of
the above solutions would reach them. With the worldwide Muslim
versus Muslim war growing, there's going to be more and more
"spillover" into the West, and so the number of terrorist will
continue to increase. All of the "solutions" listed above only make
things worse. AFP and CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan, Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen,
Nice, France, Raqqa

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe