04-06-2020, 10:44 PM
** 06-Apr-2020 World View: Herd Immunity
Fortunately for me, I hedged and used the phrase "some form of" of
herd immunity.
Actually, the phrase "herd immunity" has actually changed its meaning.
When I first wrote about it, "herd immunity" meant that old people
would be put into isolation, and the virus would (somehow) be allowed
to burn through the population of young people. After it ended, the
old people could be let out, and everyone could live in harmony (not
counting the young people who had been killed). And no, there isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that a policy like that would be adopted by
any democracy, or by any government.
However, today the meaning "herd immunity" has changed. It simply
means not taking mitigation steps, and letting the virus burn through
the entire population. Millennials and Gen-Xers are hoping for this,
since they see it as a way to get rid of all the Boomers. So, in a
sense, the current meaning of "herd immunity" has been reversed -- it
used to mean "save all the Boomers," but now it means "kill all the
Boomers." Yayyyy!
I don't think that any government is going to adopt even this policy,
but I do think it may occur by default. It will occur by default in
any country where the hospitals and health services become
overwhelmed. This will certainly be true in many places in Africa,
the Mideast, Asia, or in crowded cities and refugee camps.
On the other hand, every place, no matter how crowded and poor, will
at least attempt mitigation steps and social distancing, even if they
don't succeed. But it's still true that no population will purposely
adopt herd immunity without making every attempt at mitigation.
By the way, if you haven't watched that 1918 Spanish Flu documentary
that I previously recommended, you should do so.
** 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c
What's important about this documentary is that it shows how
mitigation steps were tried, but repeatedly failed (except in San
Francisco).
richard5za Wrote:> John, you previously expressed a view that the public wouldn't go
> with a herd immunity strategy; would not be able to handle all the
> dead bodies (my words not yours) Is your view changing?
Fortunately for me, I hedged and used the phrase "some form of" of
herd immunity.
Actually, the phrase "herd immunity" has actually changed its meaning.
When I first wrote about it, "herd immunity" meant that old people
would be put into isolation, and the virus would (somehow) be allowed
to burn through the population of young people. After it ended, the
old people could be let out, and everyone could live in harmony (not
counting the young people who had been killed). And no, there isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that a policy like that would be adopted by
any democracy, or by any government.
However, today the meaning "herd immunity" has changed. It simply
means not taking mitigation steps, and letting the virus burn through
the entire population. Millennials and Gen-Xers are hoping for this,
since they see it as a way to get rid of all the Boomers. So, in a
sense, the current meaning of "herd immunity" has been reversed -- it
used to mean "save all the Boomers," but now it means "kill all the
Boomers." Yayyyy!
I don't think that any government is going to adopt even this policy,
but I do think it may occur by default. It will occur by default in
any country where the hospitals and health services become
overwhelmed. This will certainly be true in many places in Africa,
the Mideast, Asia, or in crowded cities and refugee camps.
On the other hand, every place, no matter how crowded and poor, will
at least attempt mitigation steps and social distancing, even if they
don't succeed. But it's still true that no population will purposely
adopt herd immunity without making every attempt at mitigation.
By the way, if you haven't watched that 1918 Spanish Flu documentary
that I previously recommended, you should do so.
** 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c
What's important about this documentary is that it shows how
mitigation steps were tried, but repeatedly failed (except in San
Francisco).
