04-11-2020, 11:29 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2020, 12:43 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
** 11-Apr-2020 World View: The number of US deaths from Covid-19
New York state governor Andrew Cuomo has just been giving his daily
coronavirus news briefing.
He was giving the number of infections and the number of deaths, and
as usual in such situations when politicians have to use a little
elementary school arithmetic, he was completely confused. As I've
pointed out many, many times, many politicians and journalists cannot
do math at even the 2nd grade level.
So he referred to Trump's task force figures for deaths in the US,
based on models developed by the experts Anthony Fauci and Deborah
Birx. The task force estimated two million deaths if the economy had
not been shut down (i.e., no mitigation steps or lockdowns). They
estimate 200-400K deaths with mitigation. And the task force hopes to
bring it down to 60K deaths in the US if the public continues to honor
"social separation" guidelines.
Cuomo also referenced figures from the CDC model that 160 million
people will be infected. Cuomo ridiculed that figure.
So the first problem is that the 60K deaths figure is up to August of
this year, while the 160 million figure covers a two year period, so
the two figures are not comparable. This is a common mistake that
politicians and pundits make, completely confusing everyone by not
comparing equalivalent time periods, equivalent regions, or equivalent
mitigation enforcement.
There have already been almost 20,000 deaths in the US, for February
and March, and some of April. Unless that rate slows down (which may
happen in the summer), the number of deaths to August will be in the
60-100K range.
However, that rate of death could spike substantially when the US
"opens up" the economy, currently expected in mid-May. So there could
well be 100-200K deaths by August, depending on what happens when the
lockdowns end.
Now, I've seen the figure that 60% of people who are exposed to
Covid-19 will become infected. So let's assume that everyone will be
exposed to Covid-19 in one way or another some time in the next two
years. I personally believe this to be true, particularly after all
lockdowns are over and forgotten. It means that the infection rate of
160 million people over two years is quite plausible.
Finally, my own estimate of the number of deaths comes from a
comparison to the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic. Based on that
comparison, I estimated 4 million deaths in the current pandemic.
** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200322
That pandemic occurred in three "waves," with the second wave, in the
fall of 1919, being the worst. The second wave was made worse by the
fact that the Spanish Flu virus mutated in the summer of 1918, and
became much more dangerous, and even people who survived the illness
in the spring had no immunity to the mutated flu in the fall.
I have heard several TV experts discuss mutations of Covid-19 in
general terms. What I heard was that there have already been
mutations, and that there are already three strains of Covid-19,
although the three strains are sufficiently similar that someone who
survives illness from one is still immune from the other two, at least
for a while. According to one person, the European version is
different than the Chinese version, and the east coast has the
European version, while the west coast has the Chinese version. This
shows the danger that there may be yet another mutation that can
strike survivors of the other strains, as happened in 1918, and a huge
number of deaths from a second wave in the fall is at least a
possibility. However, Anthony Fauci says that they're well prepared
if that happens, whereas they weren't prepared in 1918.
So there are variety of estimates of the number of deaths -- from 60K
until August to four million over two years. These estimates seem to
change almost every day.
The only thing that can slow these deaths is the successful deployment
of a vaccine, and every expert I've heard says that won't occur for
another 12-18 months.
New York state governor Andrew Cuomo has just been giving his daily
coronavirus news briefing.
He was giving the number of infections and the number of deaths, and
as usual in such situations when politicians have to use a little
elementary school arithmetic, he was completely confused. As I've
pointed out many, many times, many politicians and journalists cannot
do math at even the 2nd grade level.
So he referred to Trump's task force figures for deaths in the US,
based on models developed by the experts Anthony Fauci and Deborah
Birx. The task force estimated two million deaths if the economy had
not been shut down (i.e., no mitigation steps or lockdowns). They
estimate 200-400K deaths with mitigation. And the task force hopes to
bring it down to 60K deaths in the US if the public continues to honor
"social separation" guidelines.
Cuomo also referenced figures from the CDC model that 160 million
people will be infected. Cuomo ridiculed that figure.
So the first problem is that the 60K deaths figure is up to August of
this year, while the 160 million figure covers a two year period, so
the two figures are not comparable. This is a common mistake that
politicians and pundits make, completely confusing everyone by not
comparing equalivalent time periods, equivalent regions, or equivalent
mitigation enforcement.
There have already been almost 20,000 deaths in the US, for February
and March, and some of April. Unless that rate slows down (which may
happen in the summer), the number of deaths to August will be in the
60-100K range.
However, that rate of death could spike substantially when the US
"opens up" the economy, currently expected in mid-May. So there could
well be 100-200K deaths by August, depending on what happens when the
lockdowns end.
Now, I've seen the figure that 60% of people who are exposed to
Covid-19 will become infected. So let's assume that everyone will be
exposed to Covid-19 in one way or another some time in the next two
years. I personally believe this to be true, particularly after all
lockdowns are over and forgotten. It means that the infection rate of
160 million people over two years is quite plausible.
Finally, my own estimate of the number of deaths comes from a
comparison to the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic. Based on that
comparison, I estimated 4 million deaths in the current pandemic.
** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200322
That pandemic occurred in three "waves," with the second wave, in the
fall of 1919, being the worst. The second wave was made worse by the
fact that the Spanish Flu virus mutated in the summer of 1918, and
became much more dangerous, and even people who survived the illness
in the spring had no immunity to the mutated flu in the fall.
I have heard several TV experts discuss mutations of Covid-19 in
general terms. What I heard was that there have already been
mutations, and that there are already three strains of Covid-19,
although the three strains are sufficiently similar that someone who
survives illness from one is still immune from the other two, at least
for a while. According to one person, the European version is
different than the Chinese version, and the east coast has the
European version, while the west coast has the Chinese version. This
shows the danger that there may be yet another mutation that can
strike survivors of the other strains, as happened in 1918, and a huge
number of deaths from a second wave in the fall is at least a
possibility. However, Anthony Fauci says that they're well prepared
if that happens, whereas they weren't prepared in 1918.
So there are variety of estimates of the number of deaths -- from 60K
until August to four million over two years. These estimates seem to
change almost every day.
The only thing that can slow these deaths is the successful deployment
of a vaccine, and every expert I've heard says that won't occur for
another 12-18 months.
