04-11-2020, 06:15 PM
** 11-Apr-2020 World View: International hot spots
That's true, but there's one more thing that the media and even
Trump's task force all dance around but never really address.
There's a lot of talk about "hot spots." New York state is the
current biggest hot spot, responsible for almost half the deaths in
the country.
And a tv report today listed the next likely hot spots: Delaware,
South Dakots, Maryland, Rhode Island, Pensylvania. The number of
cases in these five states has doubled or tripled in the last seven
days. These hot spots will be growing as the New York hot spot is on
a downward slope, and it's hoped that resources can be transferred
from New York to those other locations.
However, the hot spots that the news reports rarely mention are
elsewhere: Central America, South America, Africa, the Mideast, parts
of Asia. Particularly vulnerable are crowded refugee camps and
crowded megacities, where poverty and crowding combine to make such
things as social separation and self-isolation impossible.
These probably add up to one or two billion people in these hot spots.
What's going to happen to these people? Are we all just going to sit
around and watch them die by the hundreds of millions?
They're going to try to escape to the non-hot spot countries -- the
United States, Europe, Australia, and even China -- anywhere that they
believe that they'll be safe from Covid-19.
The point is that these massive hot spots will increase the number of
deaths in the non-hot spot countries because the massive number of
infections and deaths will spill over into the non-hot spot countries.
Every country will try to build walls to keep people out, but we've
already seen in the last ten years how difficult building such walls
can be.
So your estimate that 10% of the American population could require
hospitalation may be defeated people from international hot spots will
end up seeding additional hot spots in the non-hot spot countries.
Navigator Wrote:> This could mean, extrapolated to the entire population, that
> eventually 10% of the population (that would be about 30 million
> in the USA) would require hospitalization.
That's true, but there's one more thing that the media and even
Trump's task force all dance around but never really address.
There's a lot of talk about "hot spots." New York state is the
current biggest hot spot, responsible for almost half the deaths in
the country.
And a tv report today listed the next likely hot spots: Delaware,
South Dakots, Maryland, Rhode Island, Pensylvania. The number of
cases in these five states has doubled or tripled in the last seven
days. These hot spots will be growing as the New York hot spot is on
a downward slope, and it's hoped that resources can be transferred
from New York to those other locations.
However, the hot spots that the news reports rarely mention are
elsewhere: Central America, South America, Africa, the Mideast, parts
of Asia. Particularly vulnerable are crowded refugee camps and
crowded megacities, where poverty and crowding combine to make such
things as social separation and self-isolation impossible.
These probably add up to one or two billion people in these hot spots.
What's going to happen to these people? Are we all just going to sit
around and watch them die by the hundreds of millions?
They're going to try to escape to the non-hot spot countries -- the
United States, Europe, Australia, and even China -- anywhere that they
believe that they'll be safe from Covid-19.
The point is that these massive hot spots will increase the number of
deaths in the non-hot spot countries because the massive number of
infections and deaths will spill over into the non-hot spot countries.
Every country will try to build walls to keep people out, but we've
already seen in the last ten years how difficult building such walls
can be.
So your estimate that 10% of the American population could require
hospitalation may be defeated people from international hot spots will
end up seeding additional hot spots in the non-hot spot countries.
