04-27-2020, 01:38 PM
** 27-Apr-2020 World View: North and South Korea confederation
When Moon is "dismissive" toward the USA, I assume those remarks are
targeted to his political base. Actions speak louder than words,
and I would point again to the THAAD deployment.
In fact, take another look at the article that I wrote last year:
** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190429
The last section of that article describes South Korea's network of
anti-missile defenses. There are multiple layers of defense. The
Koreans are providing the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range surface-to-air
missile system and the PIP missile interceptor. But the KM-SAM is
heavily dependent on working with two American anti-missile systems --
the THAAD and the Patriot.
So in addition to the multi-level anti-missile defenses, you have
29,000 American soldiers. That's a huge American presence, and that
isn't going away. So if Moon wants to say, "I don't like all that
American stuff here, but we're stuck with it" in order to appease
his political base, then I don't think it makes much difference.
You describe a North/South Korea confederation that sides with China
against Japan and Taiwan. This raises a number of questions in my
mind:
* You lived in Seoul for many years, so you have a feel for what the
South Korean people really want. What do the people really want?
* How is such a confederation possible without a North-South war?
Who would govern the confederation?
* At what point in your scenario would the American troops withdraw,
dismantling the anti-missile defense systems?
* You're drawing on historical analogies to describe "a blocking force
against Japan and/or Taiwan." How would that work? Would Korean
troops be involved against Japan or Taiwan?
* Why would South Korea side with China against Taiwan?
thomasglee Wrote:> The Moon regime has become more and more dismissive toward the USA
> over the past several years. South Korean manufacturers are
> heavily dependent on China and China is dependant on Korea for
> technologies that can be used in 5G networks. I suspect China and
> Korea will align against the USA and Japan. South Korea and China
> needed the Kim family (or at least Kim Jong Un) out of the way to
> achieve this goal. KJU and Trump were getting along too well and
> KJU doesn't/didn't want to lose the power and wealth he maintains
> by a divided Korea. He is not nearly as ideological as his father
> and grandfather. With KJU out of the way, a confederation between
> the north and south can be created, giving south Korea access to
> nuclear and missile technologies, which they will likely use to
> act as a blocking force against Japan and/or Taiwan in a war
> between the USA and China. To me, it is becoming more and more
> clear where south Korea's loyalties are going to lie. Throughout
> Korea's history, they have been a tributary state to China (or
> Japan) and it looks like they are going back to that
> model.
When Moon is "dismissive" toward the USA, I assume those remarks are
targeted to his political base. Actions speak louder than words,
and I would point again to the THAAD deployment.
In fact, take another look at the article that I wrote last year:
** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190429
The last section of that article describes South Korea's network of
anti-missile defenses. There are multiple layers of defense. The
Koreans are providing the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range surface-to-air
missile system and the PIP missile interceptor. But the KM-SAM is
heavily dependent on working with two American anti-missile systems --
the THAAD and the Patriot.
So in addition to the multi-level anti-missile defenses, you have
29,000 American soldiers. That's a huge American presence, and that
isn't going away. So if Moon wants to say, "I don't like all that
American stuff here, but we're stuck with it" in order to appease
his political base, then I don't think it makes much difference.
You describe a North/South Korea confederation that sides with China
against Japan and Taiwan. This raises a number of questions in my
mind:
* You lived in Seoul for many years, so you have a feel for what the
South Korean people really want. What do the people really want?
* How is such a confederation possible without a North-South war?
Who would govern the confederation?
* At what point in your scenario would the American troops withdraw,
dismantling the anti-missile defense systems?
* You're drawing on historical analogies to describe "a blocking force
against Japan and/or Taiwan." How would that work? Would Korean
troops be involved against Japan or Taiwan?
* Why would South Korea side with China against Taiwan?
