Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(05-04-2020, 06:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 04-May-2020 World View: S&H vs Generational Dynamics

The point is that Neil Howe and David Kaiser completely lost it by turning the Fourth Turning into a purely left-wing political prediction.  Today, nobody in the TFT community would dare to predict a world war, since that would mean that Trump would become a national hero like Roosevelt and Lincoln.  It's all political.

I know your focus on war as the one and only game-changer, but nukes have really changed that dynamic forever. A world war would, as Albert Einstein noted, put us back in the preindustrial age. No one is that crazy … even the Orange One. But let's say for argument's sake that one occurs on Trump's watch. That in no way guarantees his position as a hero. He may end his life as the new Hitler. Who's to say?

T4T only predicts change, not winners and losers. America has marched ahead for 4 centuries. Given nuclear war, that may be our run. Even as a winner, we would be poorer in every way than avoiding the war in the first place. Short of responding to being attacked directly, a President that engages in one will be despised, not vaunted.