Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(05-10-2020, 05:22 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: You don’t get it.

I too have been something of a predictor of the future.  I have not become a social outcast by doing so.  The predictions I make mesh quite well with the average person I bump into.  Granted, this is Massachusetts. Still, from time to time when we are grumbling about politicians, I bring in various aspects of my perspective.  The conversation generally takes off and I make friends with it.  There is no clash.  My world view is comparable to the people in the world around me, only a bit more thought out.

Truly laughable.  The reason you're so popular being "something of a predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose purpose is to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in Massachusetts.  You don't even care if your predictions turn out to be right or wrong. And that's true of a million people who make predictions on tv, and whose predictions are wrong half the time.

I always like to say that if you want to get a million predictions right, then just make two million predictions, and in your case those would be left-wing predictions.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The reason that people hate and shun Generational Dynamics predictions is because they're non-ideological and they're always right.

That’s a miss. I have an INTP’s desire to understand things rather than a desire to be popular by agreeing with people. Wrong type. Also your world view is political and partisan. You respond like a political partisan rather than as a scientist. (Mike Alexander has the other highly scientific perspective on these sites. Most adhere either to the red or the blue.)

We will see about the crisis war. I was wondering last year what would happen if we went through a crisis period with a prophet-nomad-hero configuration without a trigger. Nukes were observed and though analysis as making military triggers very uncommon. Major powers did not make war on one another any longer.

That exploration was cut short by the virus, so we won’t know what happens with a no trigger crisis this time around the turning cycle. You were right in that I didn't care deeply that my analysis was no longer relevant. I responded by working a new analysis given a non military trigger. You are wrong in assuming that happens a lot. It doesn't.

But we have not so many years left in the prophet-nomad-hero configuration. We will see if another trigger hits during that interval. To me, it is not looking that way. We are too traumatized for a crisis war. We too recently remember the Bush 43 wars to put boots on the ground again. Thus, we seem unlikely to continue the Industrial Age cycles. What the cycles will look like in the Information Age has become confused by the presence of a non military trigger. Those are rare enough that you can’t count on them happening in a given turning. Things at the moment look less predictable.