05-11-2020, 07:44 PM
The Generational Dynamics problem is fairly simple. The logical rule is that you cannot count an inductive proof holding over a group that is not sampled. In specific, you can not count a proof taken from the Industrial Age as valid in the Industrial Age.
This can be dismissed by two methods, at least. The first is to attack the logic, the rule stated above. This has not been done.
The second is by taking a sample of a goodly number of Information Age cultures that have started crisis wars in the Information Age, preferably against cultures with nukes. As we are fairly late in an Information Age crisis, the samples would be there. You either find them or you don’t. This has not been done. One might look first at India, Pakistan and North Korea. They have spouted the rhetoric, but not launched the wars. They are in the minority of cultures, which would be a problem as the prediction is inevitable. Others?
There might be another route I have not thought of.
If nothing is done, you have to throw away Generational Dynamics. If you do not find the crisis wars that are supposed to be inevitable, it’s cycles are clearly not valid.
If the theory were scientific, the challenge would have been answered. It has not been.
This makes one wonder why Xenakis has not taken up the challenge. (I do not count using internet warrior level insults as a response.) I have already suggested an ideological motive. He has an internal reason to want to make the predictions that have ruined his life.
A second reason is the sunk cost fallacy. He has put so much energy and money into keeping Generational Dynamics alive that he is willing to keep it sort of alive in spite of the questionable assertion and logic.
At this point the crisis is not over. We could develop further crisis wars in the time remaining. Thus far, we have to go with what we have.
This can be dismissed by two methods, at least. The first is to attack the logic, the rule stated above. This has not been done.
The second is by taking a sample of a goodly number of Information Age cultures that have started crisis wars in the Information Age, preferably against cultures with nukes. As we are fairly late in an Information Age crisis, the samples would be there. You either find them or you don’t. This has not been done. One might look first at India, Pakistan and North Korea. They have spouted the rhetoric, but not launched the wars. They are in the minority of cultures, which would be a problem as the prediction is inevitable. Others?
There might be another route I have not thought of.
If nothing is done, you have to throw away Generational Dynamics. If you do not find the crisis wars that are supposed to be inevitable, it’s cycles are clearly not valid.
If the theory were scientific, the challenge would have been answered. It has not been.
This makes one wonder why Xenakis has not taken up the challenge. (I do not count using internet warrior level insults as a response.) I have already suggested an ideological motive. He has an internal reason to want to make the predictions that have ruined his life.
A second reason is the sunk cost fallacy. He has put so much energy and money into keeping Generational Dynamics alive that he is willing to keep it sort of alive in spite of the questionable assertion and logic.
At this point the crisis is not over. We could develop further crisis wars in the time remaining. Thus far, we have to go with what we have.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
