05-11-2020, 09:27 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020, 04:55 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
** 11-May-2020 World View: System dynamics predictions
I've never heard anyone say that they've been making predictions based
on system dynamics, besides myself. What kinds of predictions were
they?
And you're right about people hating predictions that are true, rather
than what they want to hear. It freaks people out, and turns some of
them into loudmouth assholes, because of cognitive dissonance. The
ancient Greeks were brilliant in coming up with the Cassandra myth as
something that describes humanity.
(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Truly laughable. The reason you're so popular being "something of
> a predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose
> purpose is to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in
> Massachusetts. You don't even care if your predictions turn out
> to be right or wrong. And that's true of a million people who
> make predictions on tv, and whose predictions are wrong half the
> time.
(05-10-2020, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Exactly.
> I actually made a living for three years making true predictions.
> They weren't generational predictions, but they were system
> dynamics predictions about the behavior of large groups of people.
> It was really tough. What I learned was that people are far more
> willing to pay for predictions that what they want to happen will
> happen, than for predictions that are true.
> I think this is just how the oracle business works, going back at
> least to Cassandra.
I've never heard anyone say that they've been making predictions based
on system dynamics, besides myself. What kinds of predictions were
they?
And you're right about people hating predictions that are true, rather
than what they want to hear. It freaks people out, and turns some of
them into loudmouth assholes, because of cognitive dissonance. The
ancient Greeks were brilliant in coming up with the Cassandra myth as
something that describes humanity.
