05-12-2020, 06:35 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2020, 06:38 PM by Bob Butler 54.)
A good enough list of crisis wars. A good enough definition of what a crisis war is. I will read at least some of the articles referenced as well as checking them against other sources, but the list seems acceptable to start working with.
But the list does not seem to include major powers by the understanding of North America, Europe and Asia. It does not include nuclear powers.
I am tempted to say that Generational Dynamics could very well be accurate among the minor powers of Africa, South America and Asia.
The basic proposal is that cultures who have lived under threat of instant nuclear destruction are traumatized, more rationally committed to not support leaders likely to commit to a crisis war, or both. Thus, the Generational Dynamics generation line is moved for those cultures. It is unlikely that people who live in a threatened environment will decide to support a war which could conceivably escalate into a nuclear exchange. This would include the leaders.
As a thought experiment, would the 1930s need for living space or a resource rich Greater East Asia Co-Prospeity Sphere have been so attractive if some of the Allied states confronted in World War II had nukes and a reasonable way of delivering them? Would the war have taken place?
So the list could well be used to cover many cultures and parts of the world. Generational Dynamics could very well be accurate there. But Generational Dynamics as currently thought through would not yield an accurate set of predictions among major powers or against nuclear powers.
So, the question becomes if any major powers or nuclear powers fought crisis wars since World War II. Off the top of your head?
As a tangent, the fictional Star Trek universe might well be thought to contain a crisis war which echos turning theory. The Vulcans were said to have fought a very destructive war, and as a result underwent a cultural reboot after the war to make logic very dominant in the culture. They were determined to never repeat the intense emotions that led to crisis war again. This may seem excessive to humans, but when you consider that the Romulans have the same gene pool and are usually portrayed as warlike, perhaps that would be what it took.
Of course, you would have to move the Vulcan generation line after they rebooted their culture. The reboot worked, at least in fiction.
But the list does not seem to include major powers by the understanding of North America, Europe and Asia. It does not include nuclear powers.
I am tempted to say that Generational Dynamics could very well be accurate among the minor powers of Africa, South America and Asia.
The basic proposal is that cultures who have lived under threat of instant nuclear destruction are traumatized, more rationally committed to not support leaders likely to commit to a crisis war, or both. Thus, the Generational Dynamics generation line is moved for those cultures. It is unlikely that people who live in a threatened environment will decide to support a war which could conceivably escalate into a nuclear exchange. This would include the leaders.
As a thought experiment, would the 1930s need for living space or a resource rich Greater East Asia Co-Prospeity Sphere have been so attractive if some of the Allied states confronted in World War II had nukes and a reasonable way of delivering them? Would the war have taken place?
So the list could well be used to cover many cultures and parts of the world. Generational Dynamics could very well be accurate there. But Generational Dynamics as currently thought through would not yield an accurate set of predictions among major powers or against nuclear powers.
So, the question becomes if any major powers or nuclear powers fought crisis wars since World War II. Off the top of your head?
As a tangent, the fictional Star Trek universe might well be thought to contain a crisis war which echos turning theory. The Vulcans were said to have fought a very destructive war, and as a result underwent a cultural reboot after the war to make logic very dominant in the culture. They were determined to never repeat the intense emotions that led to crisis war again. This may seem excessive to humans, but when you consider that the Romulans have the same gene pool and are usually portrayed as warlike, perhaps that would be what it took.
Of course, you would have to move the Vulcan generation line after they rebooted their culture. The reboot worked, at least in fiction.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
