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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 17-May-20 World View -- Trump administration will block chip shipments to China's Huawei

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Trump administration will block chip shipments to China's Huawei
  • The Huawei threat to national security
  • The world is waking up to the character of the Chinese Communist Party
  • Faustian bargains with China
  • Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable?

****
**** Trump administration will block chip shipments to China's Huawei
****


[Image: g200516b.jpg]
China is growing more nationalistic and militaristic every day. Is a US-China war even possible in the age of nuclear weapons? (Reuters)

The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that it would block
sales of US semiconductor technology to China's Huawei Technologies or
its HiSilicon affiliate. The order would block sales of chips and
chipsets, as well as related software and technology.

This is actually an extension of an order that was put into effect
last year, that I described in detail in an article in August. ( "16-Aug-19 World View -- Results of sanctions on Huawei Electronics"
)

The order was put into effect because Huawei devices, including
mobile phones and routers, present a threat to national
security in the United States and in any other country where these
devices are used and installed. It's now generally accepted that
Huawei devices contain undetectable "backdoors" that allow China's
military to control them remotely for the purposes of spying and
data collection, and could even shut them down completely on
command from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

However, Huawei has found ways to bypass the previous order, and so
the extended order will restrict many more companies, including
foreign companies, from selling products to Huawei. The US is able to
restrict even foreign companies from selling products to Huawei if the
products contain 25% or more of U.S.-originated technologies or
materials.

Possibly the most significant target of the extended order is Taiwan’s
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) Ltd, a major producer of
chips for Huawei’s HiSilicon unit as well as mobile phone rivals Apple
and Qualcomm.

The extended order will only go into effect after 120 days. In the
meantime, TSMC has announced that it will conduct a thorough legal
analysis, and Huawei announced that the Chinese Communist Party will
retaliate.

According to reports in the CCP propaganda publication Global Times,
the CCP is planning retaliation on US companies such as Apple, and
halting purchase of Boeing airplanes:

<QUOTE>"The potential move, the second time within two days
that China has released message of hitting back against the US,
also the very first time government source noted to target
specific US companies, is a result of Washington's recent
malicious attacks on China, which ignited a tsunami of anger among
Chinese officials and in the business circle. China is mulling
punitive countermeasures against US individuals and entities over
COVID-19 lawsuits due to the abuse of litigation by the US side,
sources close to the matter told the Global Times previously.

China's latest moves indicate a toe-to-toe strategy between the
world's two largest economies, from political to economic ends,
being in full play, experts said."<END QUOTE>


At the very least, this makes it likely that the US-China trade
war is back in full force.

****
**** The Huawei threat to national security
****


I've been writing about this issue since 2012, when Secretary of
Defense Leon Panetta warned of a Cyberwar Pearl Harbor
from China.

First off, I'm the expert on this subject, not some reporter or politician
who majored in sociology or women's studies in college. I spent five
years of my career developing board-level operating systems for embedded
systems, so I know how easy it would be to install a "backdoor" into
a device that would allow the device to be controlled remotely by
China's military. Furthermore, an implementation that uses public/private
key encryption technology could be designed in such a way that the
backdoor could not be detected, even by someone who suspects that
the backdoor is there.

I have the skills to do this fairly easily, and there are undoubtedly
many Chinese engineers with the same skills. So it would be very easy
for Huawei to install undetectable backdoors into all its devices,
allowing the devices to be controlled by China's military.
Furthermore, in 2017, the CCP passed the National Intelligence Law,
which demands that all organizations, including Huawei, "support,
cooperate with, and collaborate with" China's military in collecting
intelligence, even when doing so is illegal.

So any country or company that has installed Huawei networks and
devices can be easily spied on by China's military, and the network
can be controlled or shut down by China's military, for example
at time of war.

The CCP has heavily subsidized Huawei so that Huawei's products
are much cheaper than those of competitors. This has allowed Huawei
to install networks in many countries, and is being particularly
aggressive in installing 5G networks. China's military already
has the ability to track political, media and military figures
in many countries, and to steal any kind of economic or military
information.

****
**** The world is waking up to the character of the Chinese Communist Party
****


The above is the title of a recent article in the Washington Post,
highlighting the fact that the CCP's handling of the Wuhan Coronavirus
crisis has been nothing short of criminal. What's different now is
that it isn't just the United States being the lone critic of the CCP
in areas such as trade and Huawei 5G, but after the CCP seeded the
virus in over 180 countries, people in many countries see the CCP as a
criminal organization.

There's a debate going on as to whether the virus occurred naturally
in a Chinese "wet market," or whether it originated in the Wuhan
Institute Of Virology. The debate is hightened by the fact that
today, many months later, the CCP still is blocking the CDC, the WHO,
and other international organizations from going to Wuhan to conduct
an independent investigation. The CCP's actions lead to the
conclusion that the "worst" must be true, whatever the "worst" is.

But most people no longer even care about that. Who cares how the
virus was created? What's being viewed internationally as criminal
behavior is what the CCP did once the virus started spreading:
  • Jailed and tortured doctors who tried to report it on social
    media.

  • Censored news reports that it was spreading in communal fashion.

  • Specifically denied communal transmission, even when the CCP knew
    for a fact that communal transmission was occurring.

  • Ordered the World Health Organization (WHO) to deny claims of
    communal transmission.

  • Ordered the WHO to delay declaring the crisis to be a
    "pandemic."

  • Ordered the WHO to reject Taiwan's reports of communal
    transmission.

  • Blocked airline service between Wuhan and other provinces of
    China.

  • But permitted airline service between Wuhan and other countries,
    in order to seed the virus in those countries.

  • Continues to block visits by the CDC, WHO and other
    international to Wuhan for investigations.

  • Continues refusal to share critical scientific information and
    honest data.

  • Used economic or military threats against any country wanting to
    block airline travel from Wuhan. This was particularly disastrous for
    Iran, which permitted airline traffic to and from Wuhan even after
    government officials and clerics started dying.

  • Directed agents in countries around the world to buy up
    all face masks, gowns, goggles, and other "personal protective
    equipment (PPE)" and ship it back to China, so that it would be
    unavailable in the countries that China was seeding.

  • Launched a worldwide disinformation and fake news campaign to
    blame the United States for the pandemic.

By seeding the world, by using their WHO puppets to lie to the world,
and by buying up all available PPE in the world, the CCP gave
themselves a three-month headstart on controlling the virus. The CCP
seems to have succeeded in this extremely malicious and evil strategy,
as they're far ahead of other countries in "opening up" their economy.
The only downside for the CCP is that China is an export economy, and
they've destroyed the economies of their own customers.

Chinese Communist supporters and CCP trolls claim that items in the
above list are exaggerated, but there is no longer any doubt of
overwhelming evidence of malicious actions and malicious intent by the
Chinese Communist Party.

That's why, as the Washington Post article claims, "the world is
waking up to the character of the Chinese Communist Party," which is
increasingly seen as a criminal organization which has maliciously
caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, increasing into the millions,
in hundreds of countries. Not only has the CCP expressed no remorse,
but they continue to blame others, continue to censor news reports
from their own media, continue to deport reporters from foreign news
organizations, and continue to block international investigations in
Wuhan.

As an aside, I've noticed a significant change in Donald Trump's
demeanor. In January, he was still referring to Xi Jinping as a
friend, and saying that China was doing a good job. The turning point
occurred in February, as I recall, when the CCP disinformation
campaign began claiming that the virus was planted in Wuhan by
American soldiers. This clearly infuriated Trump. Today, Trump
specifically blames Xi Jinping for hundreds of thousands of deaths in
over 180 countries.

Trump's change in attitude is emblematic of a change in attitude that
has occurred in many populations in many countries around the world.
This will not end well.

The CCP thugs may believe that now would be a good time to attack
America, believing that the American armed forces are weakened by
Covid-19. That's why Trump is pushing hard to open businesses again,
and that's why he said on Friday, "I just want to make something
clear, it's very important. Vaccine or no vaccine, we're back."

****
**** Faustian bargains with China
****


Faust is the title character in a ninetenth century play by Johann
Wolfgang von Goethe in which Faust sells his soul to the devil in
return for money and sex. The devil helps Faust seduce Gretchen. The
play ends tragically as every person in Gretchen's family dies, and
Gretchen is imprisoned, as Faust goes to hell to pay the price.

As I've said in the past, the Chinese are unique in a highly racist
way, as I described in my book, "War Between China and Japan." While
people in America consider themselves to be ordinary people who were
lucky enough to be born in the greatest nation in history, the Chinese
Communists view themselves as the Master Race -- yellow race, black
hair, brown eyes, yellow skin -- and the rest of us as barbarians. To
the CCP, other people produce products and services for the benefit of
the Chinese Communists, just as mules plough the fields for the
benefit of their farms. Stealing intellectual property or PPE is
perfectly OK because we barbarians are the mules from which anything
can be taken. On the other hand, the CCP regime will collapse if the
population believes that Xi Jinping has lost the "Mandate from
Heaven."

Thus, we're more and more hearing the term "Faustian bargain"
in conjunction with any agreement made with the Chinese Communists.

This is clear from the CCP's subsidizing of Huawei devices. Huawei
sells these devices at extremely low prices, thanks to the CCP
subsidies. But that's the Faustian bargain. As we've described, the
devices contain "backdoors" that allow China's military to spy on the
data and control the devices remotely.

Then there are the "debt trap diplomacy" agreements in China's Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI). China has been extremely secretive about
the details of these agreements, but in the past, details have leaked
out in several countries, and I wrote several articles when the leaks
occurred. China has used these agreements to acquire and control
ports and other strategic assets in Sri Lanka, Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC), Ghana, Zambia, Kenya -- through its "debt trap
diplomacy." Several other countries, including Pakistan and the
Maldives, are at risk.

Based on leaks in various countries, the details of these BRI
agreements are absolutely incredible. Here's the pattern:
  • The CCP bribes local officials to get the BRI agreement
    signed.

  • The CCP loans billions of dollars at high interest rates to a
    country, far more than the country can ever repay, to build a port or
    a highway or bridge - a project that will strategically benefit
    China.

  • The CCP sends in thousands of Chinese workers to do the actual
    work. Thus, the local population does not benefit at all, and is
    treated harshly by their Chinese masters.

  • This is really incredible: The Chinese workers purchase all the
    parts and services from Chinese firms, and all the workers are
    Chinese. So all the billions of dollars in the loan go right back to
    China, to benefit factories and service providers in China, rather
    than in the country where the work is being done.

  • So the loaned money goes right back to China, but the country
    still has to repay the loan, which means that they're repaying
    the loan twice. Amazing.

  • In case of a payment default, China takes full control of the
    port or other assets. In the case of Kenya, the agreement was
    so horrific that China can take control of any Kenyan asset, even
    foreign embassies.

  • In case of any contract dispute, the matter will be decided by
    a Chinese court.

  • In the meantime, the CCP can use the agreement to force compliance
    with any Chinese demand, such as rejection of Taiwan, or such as
    refusing to block airline flights from Wuhan.

These terms are so horrific that it's almost impossible to believe
them, but that's what leaked documents have shown. ( "15-Jan-19 World View -- Kenya's leaked BRI contract reveals shocking China debt trap details"
)

So we're seeing this time after time in every CCP transaction. When
the CCP joins an international organization like the United Nations or
World Trade Organization (WTO) or World Health Organization (WHO),
they feel no obligation to meet their commitments, although they
demand that everyone else do so. They view these organizations as a
means to control the barbarians, as a farmer might use electrified
fences to control his pack of mules.

In every CCP transaction, it's always the same. The subsidized Huawei
devices will control networks in any country that uses them. Joining
the WHO let China use them to spread the virus worldwide. The Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI) gives the CCP control of many governments
and infrastructure in Asia and Africa.

Doing business with the CCP means selling your soul to the devil. The
CCP never apologizes for errors. Never concedes that they made a
mistake. Never agrees to reparations for any damage they do. The CCP
is a criminal organization which, if it were an individual acting the
same way, would be called psychopathic. This is not going to end
well.

Let's not forget to mention that the CCP has arrested, imprisoned and
enslaved millions of Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs, something that was
supposed to be "Never again!!" after Hitler did it. And the CCP has
also illegal annexed the South China Sea, similar to something that
Hitler also did. These are the kinds of people that we're dealing
with in Xi Jinping and the CCP thugs.

And it's always important to make it clear that we're distinguishing
between the CCP thugs and the ordinary Chinese people. The ordinary
Chinese people are wonderful, whether they're in China, in Hong Kong
or in Taiwan. In fact, the Chinese people in Taiwan have a standard
of living several times better than the Chinese people in China,
because Taiwan is a free market democracy, and China is a Fascist
thugocracy.

****
**** Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable?
****


The following discussion goes beyond news reporting to Generational
Dynamics theory on the question of whether we're headed to nuclear war
with China. It's intended to be read by those interested in better
understanding of generational theory.

We can look at the big picture without referring to generational
theory. There were two world wars in the last century, plus massive
additional wars in Asia, the Mideast, Africa, and pretty much in every
region of the world. Furthermore, there have been massive wars in
every continent, in every nation, in every region of the world in
every century for millennia. There is absolutely no reason why this
century should be any different, and several reasons why this century
should be worse. So from that point of view, it's 100% certain that
there will be one or two world wars in this century, plus additional
massive wars in every region of the world, and so a war between the
US and China is inevitable. Only the timing is in question.

I've probably written several million words on the differences between
crisis and non-crisis wars, and I won't attempt to repeat that here.
But it's important to understand that crisis wars are the worst wars,
and, in the words of one person, it would be necessary to "reboot the
culture" during the Recovery Era following a crisis war, particular
within the nation or society that lost the war. A generational crisis
war is extremely horrific and traumatizing to all sides, and typically
the population becomes anxious and desperate to make sure that it
never happens again, and some sort of "rebooting" would not be
unusual.

I get asked a lot of questions, and I try to answer all of them, based
on three conditions: I have to have the time, it has to be an
interesting subject, and I have to be in the mood. If those conditions
aren't met, then I usually ask the questioner to do his own research.
This has actually worked out very well, as a number of people have
done their own research, and contributed to the development of
Generational Dynamics.

So I was asked several questions about whether a crisis war is even
possible between nuclear powers in the 21st century, or whether it's
even possible to win a nuclear war.

Of course a nuclear war is winnable -- in the sense that one side or
the other will surrender, even if both sides have huge refugee
problems and multiple cities destroyed by nuclear weapons. And you
can be very certain the US military -- and the military in many other
countries -- are fully prepared to fight a nuclear war, with the
intention of winning it.

With about 200 countries in the world, you can expect crisis wars to
be occurring somewhere at any point in time. There are typically
15-20 wars going on in the world at any given time (not all crisis
wars, of course). However, I recall that in 2004, there was a study
by some Swedish academy that the number of wars at that time was the
lowest on record.

Since the end of World War II, there have been a number of regional
generational crisis wars. For reference, the following is a quick
summary list of some examples that I've written about in the past:

Kenya's Mau-Mau rebellion (1967), Bolivia civil war (1967), Iran/Iraq
war - Great Islamic Revolution (1979-88), Cambodian "Killing Fields"
genocide (Cambodia and Thailand - 1975-79), Sudan war of independence
(1991), Colombia and Venezuela - "La Violencia" or the Colombian
Revolt (1948-1959), Armenian vs Azerbaijan (1989-94), Yemen civil war
(1962-68), Rhodesia civil war - Zimbabwe (1979), Afghanistan civil war
(1991-96), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) - Kasai region (1960),
Algeria's war of independence from France (1954-62), Cameroon - UPC
Revolt (1956-1960), Ethiopia - Eritrea(1991), Pakistan - India -
Partition war (1947), Bangladesh - East Pakistan - East India (1971),
Rwanda - Burundi - Hutu-Tutsi (1994), Sri Lanka civil war -
Tamil-Sinhalese (2009), Cuba (1960), Vietnam reunification civil war
(1975).

Over the centuries, as transportation, communication and weaponry
technologies improve, nations, societies, and identity groups tend to
grow, with the result that crisis wars tend to merge into clusters.
For convenience, I've referred to two different clusters that I call
the WW I timeline and WW II timeline. Most of the nuclear powers (US,
Britain, France, India, Pakistan, China) were on the WW II timeline.
Russia was on the WW I timeline, with the Bolshevik revolution.

A lot of other countries were on the WW II timeline. Just to pick
some at random, you have South Africa, Egypt, Korea, and Australia.

A lot of countries were on the WW I timeline, particularly in the
Mideast with the collapse of the Russian and Ottoman empires. WW I
was early enough in the century that some countries have had two
crisis wars in the last century. Iran, Syria and Iraq are examples.
Others have been delayed into a Fifth Turning, such as Mexico,
Tunisia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. These Fifth Turning
countries are all very interesting examples to study.

As I said, crisis war clusters tend to merge over the centuries, and
what we're looking at today with WW III is a final merging of the WW I
and WW II timelines.

This leads to the question of how crisis wars start and, in
particular, if the existence of nuclear weapons makes crisis wars less
likely. I've thought a lot about these questions and looked at many
examples, and I haven't been able to find any evidence that nuclear
weapons will make any difference at all.

Let's start with examples of some American non-crisis wars. The
Vietnam war (Vietnam's reunification war) evolved slowly from advisors
to heavier involvement after the Gulf of Tonkin resolution. The Gulf
war occurred after months of debate following Iraq's invasion of
Kuwait. The Iraq war began after years of political haranguing over
Iraq's WMDs. The point is that none of these were rash decisions.
These occurred only after lengthy debate and consideration.

A recent example that I've pointed to often because it's so incredibly
fascinating and almost unbelievable is the 2006 war between Israel and
Hezbollah in Lebanon. On July 12, 2006, some members of the Hezbollah
militia in Lebanon crossed the border and abducted two Israeli
soldiers.

Israel's government went into a state of total panic. Israel's Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert called this "an act of war," and within a few
hours, Israel was mobilized for war. Israel launched the war with no
plan and no objective. Each day, Israel lurched from one plan and
objective to the next, as the previous one failed. In the end, the
war was a disaster for both Israel and Lebanon, and accomplished
nothing except the destruction of a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure.
The war fizzled quickly because Lebanon and Hezbollah were in a
generational Awakening era.

It's really a remarkable example. On July 11, 2006, there was no
thought of war. On July 13, 2006, they were at war. The abduction of
Israeli soldiers was apparently a random act by some Hezbollah
fighters, but that random act on July 12, 2006, was all it took to
trigger a war that might have spiraled into much bigger war, if
Lebanon had been in a highly xenophobic and nationalistic Crisis era.

So my view is that crisis wars start from a panicked reaction to
exactly this kind of random or minor act. If the participants are in
a crisis era, with populations in highly xenophobic and nationalistic
moods, then a random act can quickly spiral into a larger and larger
war, with no planning. World War I began when a high school student
assassinated an Archduke, and it led to the collapse of the Russian
and Ottoman empires.

World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor. It didn't
even begin with the Nazi invasion of Poland.

World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident.
I've written about this a number of times, but here's a summary.

The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and
was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th
century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational
Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each
other. On July 7, A small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near
the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The
Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in
the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash
was won by the Japanese. The two sides negotiated a settlement, but
both sides brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was
full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly
thereafter.

And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier
missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his
way back. So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered
because someone unexpectedly had to pee.

One of the major motivations that Japan had in bombing Pearl Harbor in
1941 was that the US, while officially neutral, was clearly supporting
China in the Japan-China war, and the purpose of bombing Pearl Harbor
was not to make the US a Japanese colony, but rather to prevent the US
from supporting China.

Today the situation is similar to WW II, with the roles of China and
Japan reversed. I didn't call my book "War between China and the US,"
since that's not the major objective of China. I called it "War
between China and Japan." Once again, the Chinese and Japanese people
are highly xenophobic and nationalistic. Once again, the Chinese and
Japanese people really hate each other. The Chinese want revenge for
WW II -- for Japan's invasion of China, for the comfort women, for the
Rape of Nanking, and for the horrific chemical and biological warfare
atrocities committed on Chinese people by Japan's Unit 731. But this
time, the US will be supporting Japan against China, even though the
US may be officially neutral at first.

There are extremely powerful emotions involved here. Most of these
emotions are exhibited by young people who are indifferent to the
catastrophic consequences of a war, in the same way that young people
in the US support Sanders and are completely indifferent to the
catastrophic consequences of his policies.

So, would these extremely powerful emotions between Chinese and
Japanese people be affected by the fact that China and the US are
nuclear powers? I just don't see how. There could be a trivial
incident today, tomorrow or the next day, with a small clash between
China and Japan that spirals into a war because of the massive
nationalism and xenophobia on both sides. Nuclear weapons would have
nothing to do with it, although nuclear weapons would be used as the
war spiraled and progressed.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Huawei Technologies,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, TSMC,
Wuhan Institute Of Virology, World Health Organization, WHO,
Faust, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Mandate from Heaven,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, debt trap diplomacy,
Sri Lanka, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Ghana, Zambia, Kenya,
Uighurs, Kazakhs, South China Sea,
Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Ehud Olmert,
Japan, Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Rape of Nanking, Unit 731

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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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