05-22-2020, 03:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2020, 05:20 AM by Bob Butler 54.)
Interesting
On COVID, both the CCP and Trump made mistakes. I believe they would be yapping at each other regardless of whatever else is going on in vain hopes of distracting folks. You try to hide your mistakes by forcing attention on the other guy’s mistakes. I don’t take that too seriously.
It is not in anyone’s interest to start a war one is going to loose. A land war in Asia would be bad for the US. A sea war with the US would be bad for China. There is a dance involved in starting the conflict in the right place. It’s not an impossible dance, but a real one. My best guess is going after an island in the South China Sea.
Hong Kong is close enough to China that the US can’t do much about it at the scene. They might well provoke trying to start the sea war, but I don’t see them sending land troops ashore.
The Hong Kong protestors and the CCP have been dancing for quite some time. I am not ready to advise either faction on how to best dance. The CCP doesn’t like their authority questioned, but they are reluctant to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The Tiananmen Square protest set a precedent for how this could go. So does the Ukraine. Russia got hit with loosing their G8 status and other economic sanctions. The aggression stopped. Russia limps on with increased economic problems. The CCP has sent a quite strong no more signal to the protesters, but the CCP is living on borrowed time. How long can the Reds and Experts stay united in oppressing the people? How to best put off that day? There is a difference between suppressing protesters and starting a civil war. Everybody is approaching that difference with all the usual pre crisis war caution. This might be the time things give.
There is one thing I might worry about, which involves the US Election in November. I believe the popularity of the governors backing a strong scientific response as opposed to Trump’s unpopular happy talk approach of putting the economy ahead of effective isolation foreshadows how the election is going to go. This will put Trump in a desperate situation which he could see well in advance. He may try to get a war president’s popularity bounce as an October surprise, wag the dog so to speak. That worries me more than the xenophobia, whether the incident is real or staged. The US starts wars with administrations lying rather than loose troops with xenophobia these days. The CCP might do better to put off stomping on Hong Hong until after the elections. I wouldn’t give Trump an excuse. Then again, I am not the CCP.
On COVID, both the CCP and Trump made mistakes. I believe they would be yapping at each other regardless of whatever else is going on in vain hopes of distracting folks. You try to hide your mistakes by forcing attention on the other guy’s mistakes. I don’t take that too seriously.
It is not in anyone’s interest to start a war one is going to loose. A land war in Asia would be bad for the US. A sea war with the US would be bad for China. There is a dance involved in starting the conflict in the right place. It’s not an impossible dance, but a real one. My best guess is going after an island in the South China Sea.
Hong Kong is close enough to China that the US can’t do much about it at the scene. They might well provoke trying to start the sea war, but I don’t see them sending land troops ashore.
The Hong Kong protestors and the CCP have been dancing for quite some time. I am not ready to advise either faction on how to best dance. The CCP doesn’t like their authority questioned, but they are reluctant to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The Tiananmen Square protest set a precedent for how this could go. So does the Ukraine. Russia got hit with loosing their G8 status and other economic sanctions. The aggression stopped. Russia limps on with increased economic problems. The CCP has sent a quite strong no more signal to the protesters, but the CCP is living on borrowed time. How long can the Reds and Experts stay united in oppressing the people? How to best put off that day? There is a difference between suppressing protesters and starting a civil war. Everybody is approaching that difference with all the usual pre crisis war caution. This might be the time things give.
There is one thing I might worry about, which involves the US Election in November. I believe the popularity of the governors backing a strong scientific response as opposed to Trump’s unpopular happy talk approach of putting the economy ahead of effective isolation foreshadows how the election is going to go. This will put Trump in a desperate situation which he could see well in advance. He may try to get a war president’s popularity bounce as an October surprise, wag the dog so to speak. That worries me more than the xenophobia, whether the incident is real or staged. The US starts wars with administrations lying rather than loose troops with xenophobia these days. The CCP might do better to put off stomping on Hong Hong until after the elections. I wouldn’t give Trump an excuse. Then again, I am not the CCP.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
