05-23-2020, 09:32 AM
** 22-May-2020 World View: Taiwan
![[Image: Taiwan-Airfields.png]](https://i.ibb.co/cgKcbNK/Taiwan-Airfields.png)
Wouldn't the Taiwanese anticipate those attacks and set up booby traps
or something that would substantially increase the cost to the
Chinese? Or at least delay things until the US can get involved?
Navigator Wrote:> Right now, there is just a lot of rhetoric. And like the saying
> goes "talk is cheap". Nothing of note is going to happen until we
> see preparations begin to take place. I will shortly describe
> what I think the Chinese plan would be for an actual invasion of
> Taiwan, and how it would start to execute those plans.
> The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at the map in
> the previous post. This shows the locations of airfields in
> Taiwan territory.
> Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are
> Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is
> too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan,
> but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).
> Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and
> Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in
> the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on
> the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port
> facilities.
> In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy
> occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along
> the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the
> invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.
> In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:
> 1. Secure Kinmen
> 2. Secure Penghu (with its airfield and port facilities much
> closer to Taiwan than those in Mainland China)
> 3. Secure beachheads on Taiwan, with the immediate objectives
> including a good airfield (much better to fly in Reinforcements
> than ship by sea).
> To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around
> Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the
> Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.
> Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although
> the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP
> invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese
> could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted
> to, could interfere.
> With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen.
> Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu
> county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a
> major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.
> The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese
> landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough
> force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do
> so. This of course would mean war with the USA.
> Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my
> opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more
> likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half
> away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is
> not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.
> The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion
> of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity.
> The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying
> troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.
> By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare
> for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a
> good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least
> in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources
> (ammunition).
> The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but
> this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a
> quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first.
> But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu
> islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.
> Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the
> western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain
> becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily
> defensible.
Wouldn't the Taiwanese anticipate those attacks and set up booby traps
or something that would substantially increase the cost to the
Chinese? Or at least delay things until the US can get involved?
