05-23-2020, 10:44 AM
** 23-May-2020 World View: Taiwan and Japan
I don't think this is true at all. Politicians in the loony left
might want to stay out of it, but both Republicans and Democrats would
demand an immediate response, whether in the Senate or the White
House. It's possible that we'd be at war within six hours, no matter
who is president.
However, I think a far more interesting question is: What would Japan
do if the CCP attacks Taiwan?
Here's an article from yesterday in the Taiwan News.
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202005210415.aspx
It quotes Japan's Deputy Foreign Minister Suzuki Xinyou congratulating
Taiwan on the re-election of president Tsai Ing-wen, supporting
Taiwan's participation in WHO, and saying that Japan would defend
Taiwan in case of a CCP military attack. This is not a trivial
promise, since Japan's pacifist constitution forbids military action
except in self-defense on Japanese soil. However, in recent years,
Shinzo Abe has been successful in getting the clause reinterpreted to
include "collective self-defense," which would permit Japan to use
military action in support of an ally.
The CCP also knows all this, which means that if they're going to
invade Taiwan, then they'd also be at war with Japan (which is what my
book is about), and would soon be at war with the US. So a "simple"
invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult than it seems.
Navigator Wrote:> Also, I think that if Trump were still president when the Chinese
> attack, the US would get into it immediately.
> I think a Democrat president would take the view that the
> China/Taiwan affair was an internal Chinese affair, and would not
> get involved. Even to the point of watching Taiwan itself fall.
> This would be a disaster for the US, as a later attack on South
> Korea and Japan would mean the US would have to get involved, and
> Taiwan would be a major point the US would have to retake in
> dealing militarily with China. So not defending Taiwan would be a
> military disaster for the US.
I don't think this is true at all. Politicians in the loony left
might want to stay out of it, but both Republicans and Democrats would
demand an immediate response, whether in the Senate or the White
House. It's possible that we'd be at war within six hours, no matter
who is president.
However, I think a far more interesting question is: What would Japan
do if the CCP attacks Taiwan?
Here's an article from yesterday in the Taiwan News.
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202005210415.aspx
It quotes Japan's Deputy Foreign Minister Suzuki Xinyou congratulating
Taiwan on the re-election of president Tsai Ing-wen, supporting
Taiwan's participation in WHO, and saying that Japan would defend
Taiwan in case of a CCP military attack. This is not a trivial
promise, since Japan's pacifist constitution forbids military action
except in self-defense on Japanese soil. However, in recent years,
Shinzo Abe has been successful in getting the clause reinterpreted to
include "collective self-defense," which would permit Japan to use
military action in support of an ally.
The CCP also knows all this, which means that if they're going to
invade Taiwan, then they'd also be at war with Japan (which is what my
book is about), and would soon be at war with the US. So a "simple"
invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult than it seems.
