05-23-2020, 09:13 PM
*** 24-May-20 World View -- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China
****
![[Image: g200523b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200523b.jpg)
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and VP William Lai Qingde on inauguration day May 20 (Reuters)
Japan's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Keisuke Suzuki, said on
Thursday Japan would not allow "people living in such a free society
[as Taiwan] to be ravaged by the military power of a one-party
dictatorship of the Communist Party," with the implication that Japan
would militarily defend Taiwan from an invasion by China. This is
a tricky argument to make in view of Japan's pacifist constitution.
The statement came in a Livedoor blog post in which Suzuki described
how strategically important Taiwan is to Japan, and how their fates
are tied together. In addition to challenging China's military power,
he made several other statements making clear Japan's alignment with
Taiwan against China. He congratulated Taiwan on the re-election of
president Tsai Ing-wen, said that Taiwan's participation in the World
Health Organization (WHO) is "of vital importance to the lives and
health of people around the world."
An article in Taiwan's Central News Agency describes the contents of
the blog post (translation):
<QUOTE>"Keisuke Suzuki, the current member of the House of
Representatives, posted an article on the livedoor blog. First of
all, he paid tribute and congratulations on the election of
President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Qingde in Taiwan
through democratic elections.
Suzuki said that, as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated
clearly, "For Japan, Taiwan is an important partner and important
friend sharing basic values." Whenever a disaster occurs, Taiwan
and Japan exchange support at all levels, personnel exchanges,
Economic cooperation is close and there is a strong sense of
closeness to each other. Taiwan and Japan are adjacent and jointly
face the threat of China, a powerful military dictatorship that
continues to provoke provocations. Taiwan and Japan are
communities of life.
He said that Japan is one of the few countries in the world facing
a severe security environment. For Japan, based on the viewpoint
of national interests, the significance of Taiwan is difficult to
count. Japan must recognise the fact that Taiwan ’s security and
the strengthening of Taiwan-Japan relations are very important to
Japan.
He pointed out that in terms of safety and security, due to the
impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19, commonly known
as Wuhan pneumonia), the media reported that the operations of the
US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were
affected. In this case, peace and stability in the East China Sea,
Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, It is extremely important for
Japan's security. The Chinese military has repeatedly invaded the
"territorial waters" in the Diaoyutai waters, repeatedly carried
out military provocative actions in the Miyako waters, and around
Taiwan.
He emphasized that Taiwan's sharing of values such as freedom,
democracy, human rights, the rule of law and freedom of navigation
is an irreplaceable property for Japan. Japan absolutely cannot
allow people living in such a free society to be ravaged by the
military power of a one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party.
Suzuki pointed out that the World Health Assembly (WHA) has been
held this week. This time, because of the pneumonia in Wuhan,
China, many people know the World Health Organization. Not only
are other international organizations such as the WHO and the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Taiwan ’s
attempt to join is obstructed by China, which poses substantial
risks not only to Japan but also to international peace and
security.
Regarding the WHO, Japan has repeatedly advocated Taiwan ’s
participation in the World Health Assembly. Taiwan ’s success in
the prevention of coronavirus diseases in 2019. If the world can
share Taiwan ’s lessons and experience, it should have great
significance for the lives and health of the world.
Suzuki said that Taiwan is a democratic society with a population
of more than 20 million, and is adjacent to China. The epidemic
was controlled in the early stage of the epidemic. The reason why
such results cannot be shared by the world is because the WHO is
the WHO Secretariat and the Communist Party. One-party
authoritarian military power China is at the mercy of political
thinking. WHO, who emphasizes scientific views, is criticized for
attaching importance to the political thinking of a particular
country rather than human life and health. WHO should reflect
deeply on it.
Suzuki believes that Taiwan's participation in ICAO is also very
important. On Fei'an, because China's political intentions give
rise to geographic gaps and will not allow Taiwan to participate
in ICAO, Japan, which is adjacent to Taiwan, faces various risks
and will suffer the most.
He said that from the point of view of the safety and peace of
mind of Japanese citizens and people traveling to Japan, it is
absolutely impossible to allow China's brutal actions and the
inaction of the secretariats of international
organizations."<END QUOTE>
Of particular note to Americans is that Suzuki implies that American
defense may not be dependable because "the operations of the US
military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were affected" due
to the impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19).
On Friday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at the National
People's Congress (NPC) made the usual call for "reunification" of
Taiwan with China, but signaled an apparent policy shift by omitting
the word "peaceful," as in "peaceful reunification," which is the
phrase used in the past.
****
**** Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'
****
An examination of Keisuke Suzuki's blog post, quoted at length of
above, reveals some complex legal reasoning.
Japan has a pacifist constituion, adopted at the insistence of the
United States at the end of World War II. Article 9 of the
constitution forbids most military action by Japan's military, but
permits military action only when Japan itself is being attacked, and
then only on Japanese soil.
Over the years, there have been numerous attempts to revoke Article
9, but there is a strong pacifist political movement in Japan that
has blocked such attempts.
Finally, in 2015, prime minister Shinzo Abe succeeded in getting the
Diet (parliament), following a bitter debate involving fisticuffs, to
pass a law reinterpreting the defense clause to include "collective
self-defense," which would permit military action under some
circumstances when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I
discussed the meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014
in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.
So now Keisuke Suzuki is proposing to apply the "collective
self-defense" concept to Taiwan.
I want to repeat the most important sentences of the blog post:
<QUOTE>"For Japan, based on the viewpoint of national
interests, the significance of Taiwan is difficult to count. Japan
must recognise the fact that Taiwan ’s security and the
strengthening of Taiwan-Japan relations are very important to
Japan.
He pointed out that in terms of safety and security, due to the
impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19, commonly known
as Wuhan pneumonia), the media reported that the operations of the
US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were
affected. In this case, peace and stability in the East China Sea,
Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, It is extremely important for
Japan's security. The Chinese military has repeatedly invaded the
"territorial waters" in the Senkaku Island waters, repeatedly
carried out military provocative actions in the Okinawa waters,
and around Taiwan."<END QUOTE>
This is actually a legalistic explanation of why the "collective
self-defense" reinterpretation of Article 9 can be used to defend
Taiwan. It explains why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is also a threat
to Japan, and that even US intervention cannot be counted on.
Keisuke Suzuki's statement is going to be controversial in Japan, but
it probably reflects reality in that Japan could not simply stand by
while China flattens Taiwan.
The CCP also knows all this, which means that if they're going to
invade Taiwan, then they'd also be at war with Japan (which is what my
book is about), and would soon be at war with the US. So a "simple"
invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult than it seems.
****
**** The Chinese plan for an actual invasion of Taiwan
****
![[Image: g200523c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200523c.jpg)
Taiwan Airfields
"Navigator," a retired American Army Colonel 30 years experience as an
Army Officer, who blogs at http://www.comingstorms.com, posted in the
Generational Dynamics forum his analysis of how a Chinese invasion of
Taiwan would proceed:
<QUOTE>"The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at
the adjoining map. This shows the locations of airfields in Taiwan
territory.
Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are
Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is
too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan,
but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).
Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and
Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in
the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on
the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port
facilities.
In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy
occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along
the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the
invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.
In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:
To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around
Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the
Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.
Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although
the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP
invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese
could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted
to, could interfere.
With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen.
Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu
county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a
major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.
The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese
landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough
force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do
so. This of course would mean war with the USA.
Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my
opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more
likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half
away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is
not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.
The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion
of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity.
The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying
troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.
By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare
for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a
good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least
in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources
(ammunition).
The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but
this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a
quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first.
But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu
islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.
Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the
western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain
becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily
defensible."<END QUOTE>
The above is one possible description of China's military scenario
in invading Taiwan. In my book, "War between China and Japan,"
I predicted that China would invade Japan to get revenge for
World War II atrocities, and would invade Taiwan to annex it.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Keisuke Suzuki, Livedoor,
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, William Lai Qingde,
World Health Organization, WHO,
International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO,
China, Li Keqiang,
Shinzo Abe, collective self-defense
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China
- Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'
- The Chinese plan for an actual invasion of Taiwan
****
**** Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China
****
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and VP William Lai Qingde on inauguration day May 20 (Reuters)
Japan's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Keisuke Suzuki, said on
Thursday Japan would not allow "people living in such a free society
[as Taiwan] to be ravaged by the military power of a one-party
dictatorship of the Communist Party," with the implication that Japan
would militarily defend Taiwan from an invasion by China. This is
a tricky argument to make in view of Japan's pacifist constitution.
The statement came in a Livedoor blog post in which Suzuki described
how strategically important Taiwan is to Japan, and how their fates
are tied together. In addition to challenging China's military power,
he made several other statements making clear Japan's alignment with
Taiwan against China. He congratulated Taiwan on the re-election of
president Tsai Ing-wen, said that Taiwan's participation in the World
Health Organization (WHO) is "of vital importance to the lives and
health of people around the world."
An article in Taiwan's Central News Agency describes the contents of
the blog post (translation):
<QUOTE>"Keisuke Suzuki, the current member of the House of
Representatives, posted an article on the livedoor blog. First of
all, he paid tribute and congratulations on the election of
President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Qingde in Taiwan
through democratic elections.
Suzuki said that, as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated
clearly, "For Japan, Taiwan is an important partner and important
friend sharing basic values." Whenever a disaster occurs, Taiwan
and Japan exchange support at all levels, personnel exchanges,
Economic cooperation is close and there is a strong sense of
closeness to each other. Taiwan and Japan are adjacent and jointly
face the threat of China, a powerful military dictatorship that
continues to provoke provocations. Taiwan and Japan are
communities of life.
He said that Japan is one of the few countries in the world facing
a severe security environment. For Japan, based on the viewpoint
of national interests, the significance of Taiwan is difficult to
count. Japan must recognise the fact that Taiwan ’s security and
the strengthening of Taiwan-Japan relations are very important to
Japan.
He pointed out that in terms of safety and security, due to the
impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19, commonly known
as Wuhan pneumonia), the media reported that the operations of the
US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were
affected. In this case, peace and stability in the East China Sea,
Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, It is extremely important for
Japan's security. The Chinese military has repeatedly invaded the
"territorial waters" in the Diaoyutai waters, repeatedly carried
out military provocative actions in the Miyako waters, and around
Taiwan.
He emphasized that Taiwan's sharing of values such as freedom,
democracy, human rights, the rule of law and freedom of navigation
is an irreplaceable property for Japan. Japan absolutely cannot
allow people living in such a free society to be ravaged by the
military power of a one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party.
Suzuki pointed out that the World Health Assembly (WHA) has been
held this week. This time, because of the pneumonia in Wuhan,
China, many people know the World Health Organization. Not only
are other international organizations such as the WHO and the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Taiwan ’s
attempt to join is obstructed by China, which poses substantial
risks not only to Japan but also to international peace and
security.
Regarding the WHO, Japan has repeatedly advocated Taiwan ’s
participation in the World Health Assembly. Taiwan ’s success in
the prevention of coronavirus diseases in 2019. If the world can
share Taiwan ’s lessons and experience, it should have great
significance for the lives and health of the world.
Suzuki said that Taiwan is a democratic society with a population
of more than 20 million, and is adjacent to China. The epidemic
was controlled in the early stage of the epidemic. The reason why
such results cannot be shared by the world is because the WHO is
the WHO Secretariat and the Communist Party. One-party
authoritarian military power China is at the mercy of political
thinking. WHO, who emphasizes scientific views, is criticized for
attaching importance to the political thinking of a particular
country rather than human life and health. WHO should reflect
deeply on it.
Suzuki believes that Taiwan's participation in ICAO is also very
important. On Fei'an, because China's political intentions give
rise to geographic gaps and will not allow Taiwan to participate
in ICAO, Japan, which is adjacent to Taiwan, faces various risks
and will suffer the most.
He said that from the point of view of the safety and peace of
mind of Japanese citizens and people traveling to Japan, it is
absolutely impossible to allow China's brutal actions and the
inaction of the secretariats of international
organizations."<END QUOTE>
Of particular note to Americans is that Suzuki implies that American
defense may not be dependable because "the operations of the US
military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were affected" due
to the impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19).
On Friday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, speaking at the National
People's Congress (NPC) made the usual call for "reunification" of
Taiwan with China, but signaled an apparent policy shift by omitting
the word "peaceful," as in "peaceful reunification," which is the
phrase used in the past.
****
**** Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'
****
An examination of Keisuke Suzuki's blog post, quoted at length of
above, reveals some complex legal reasoning.
Japan has a pacifist constituion, adopted at the insistence of the
United States at the end of World War II. Article 9 of the
constitution forbids most military action by Japan's military, but
permits military action only when Japan itself is being attacked, and
then only on Japanese soil.
Over the years, there have been numerous attempts to revoke Article
9, but there is a strong pacifist political movement in Japan that
has blocked such attempts.
Finally, in 2015, prime minister Shinzo Abe succeeded in getting the
Diet (parliament), following a bitter debate involving fisticuffs, to
pass a law reinterpreting the defense clause to include "collective
self-defense," which would permit military action under some
circumstances when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I
discussed the meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014
in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.
So now Keisuke Suzuki is proposing to apply the "collective
self-defense" concept to Taiwan.
I want to repeat the most important sentences of the blog post:
<QUOTE>"For Japan, based on the viewpoint of national
interests, the significance of Taiwan is difficult to count. Japan
must recognise the fact that Taiwan ’s security and the
strengthening of Taiwan-Japan relations are very important to
Japan.
He pointed out that in terms of safety and security, due to the
impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19, commonly known
as Wuhan pneumonia), the media reported that the operations of the
US military ’s aircraft carriers and other operations were
affected. In this case, peace and stability in the East China Sea,
Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea, It is extremely important for
Japan's security. The Chinese military has repeatedly invaded the
"territorial waters" in the Senkaku Island waters, repeatedly
carried out military provocative actions in the Okinawa waters,
and around Taiwan."<END QUOTE>
This is actually a legalistic explanation of why the "collective
self-defense" reinterpretation of Article 9 can be used to defend
Taiwan. It explains why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is also a threat
to Japan, and that even US intervention cannot be counted on.
Keisuke Suzuki's statement is going to be controversial in Japan, but
it probably reflects reality in that Japan could not simply stand by
while China flattens Taiwan.
The CCP also knows all this, which means that if they're going to
invade Taiwan, then they'd also be at war with Japan (which is what my
book is about), and would soon be at war with the US. So a "simple"
invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult than it seems.
****
**** The Chinese plan for an actual invasion of Taiwan
****
Taiwan Airfields
"Navigator," a retired American Army Colonel 30 years experience as an
Army Officer, who blogs at http://www.comingstorms.com, posted in the
Generational Dynamics forum his analysis of how a Chinese invasion of
Taiwan would proceed:
<QUOTE>"The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at
the adjoining map. This shows the locations of airfields in Taiwan
territory.
Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are
Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is
too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan,
but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).
Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and
Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in
the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on
the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port
facilities.
In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy
occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along
the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the
invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.
In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:
- Secure Kinmen
- Secure Penghu (with its airfield and port facilities much
closer to Taiwan than those in Mainland China)
- Secure beachheads on Taiwan, with the immediate objectives
including a good airfield (much better to fly in Reinforcements
than ship by sea).
To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around
Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the
Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.
Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although
the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP
invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese
could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted
to, could interfere.
With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen.
Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu
county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a
major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.
The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese
landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough
force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do
so. This of course would mean war with the USA.
Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my
opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more
likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half
away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is
not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.
The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion
of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity.
The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying
troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.
By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare
for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a
good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least
in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources
(ammunition).
The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but
this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a
quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first.
But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu
islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.
Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the
western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain
becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily
defensible."<END QUOTE>
The above is one possible description of China's military scenario
in invading Taiwan. In my book, "War between China and Japan,"
I predicted that China would invade Japan to get revenge for
World War II atrocities, and would invade Taiwan to annex it.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
- Japan official denounces China for 'ravaging' Taiwan (Taiwan News, 22-May-2020)
- Japan's Deputy Foreign Affairs Supports Taiwan's Entry into the World Health Organization (CentralNewsAgency (Mandarin), Taiwan, 22-May-2020)
- Keisuke Suzuki blog / WHO General Assembly and Taiwan Inauguration (Livedoor blog (Japanese), 21-May-2020)
- Japan seeks deeper ties with Taiwan as Tsai Ing-wen begins second term (Kyodo, Tokyo, 20-May-2020)
- China drops word 'peaceful' in latest push for Taiwan 'reunification' (Reuters, 22-May-2020)
Related articles:
- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)
- Japan finally adopts 'collective defense' laws, departing from pacifism (19-Sep-2015)
- Japan will shoot down N. Korean missiles via 'collective self-defense' (13-Aug-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Keisuke Suzuki, Livedoor,
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, William Lai Qingde,
World Health Organization, WHO,
International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO,
China, Li Keqiang,
Shinzo Abe, collective self-defense
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
