Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-29-2020, 08:29 AM)David Horn Wrote: Neil Howe thinks the 4T will end in 2030, give-or-take a year or two at most.  At a minimum, that's 8 more years of strife.  Assuming he's right, where does that leave us?

My guess at the future is much faster than Neal Howe’s.  Most of the people see control of the virus and ending things as necessary.  It doesn’t matter if you value people or dollars, you need effective isolation policy to get through this.  Governors who act on this premise are popular.  Those that do not are not.  There are lots of people who are clinging to the unraveling do nothing ethic.  They are currently mucking up the isolation attempt though ignoring the sacrifice for the good of all ethic of a crisis.

What generally happens is that the progressive crisis majority grab control of the culture and apply massive social pressure to the conservative unraveling minority.  You can grumble if you like at McCarthy, but he did manage to focus negative attitudes toward a particular ethic that was failing.  S&H puts it as the role of the civics to redefine society in a crisis.  They are supposed to sit on the remnants of the old mind pattern.  As a boomer, I can cheer them on, help if possible, but if this is what they have to do, I wish they would get off their rears.

Looking at the medical projections, I see the heart of the battle against the bug as taking a bit over two years.  By that time we should have local manufacture of PPE, tests, ventilators, etc.  We should have effective therapy and or vaccines.  Going out to 2030 seems extreme.

Trump has conceded the role of leader of the free world.  Most US presidents recently held it.  Trump has cared more about himself, and left it to other nations to do what is best for other nations.  Future presidents, simply by caring, could work themselves back into the role.  Still, there might well be doubt.  We might be less the core state, more the first among equals.

While I anticipate much noise between Trump and China, I still do not anticipate a crisis war.  What we are seeing is a public relations skirmish between two sets of leaders wishing to distract attention away from their own mistakes.  If China were seriously mad at us, they would cut the medical supply chain.  The economy world wide is in a mess and getting worse, which makes it a poor time to push the war cycles.

Thus, while Xenakis and I may disagree, I see 2030 as a stretch.  The boomers will be fading from the stage by then.  We are more likely to be in a high, reconsolidating the economy, and putting down the “disease of ignorance” which runs rampant during the unraveling, gets beat down by the crisis, and is crushed by the high.

But all this depends on the turnings turning.  You live in an area where the unravelling mind set is dominating.  We’ll see if they can out stubborn the virus, pretend they are not killing themselves.  Will they dig into their ignorance deep enough to kill the attempts to save lives and restart the economy?  Will attempting to kill more people and stall the economy result in the majority applying enough social pressure to enforce the new normal?