06-12-2020, 09:10 PM
*** 13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh
****
![[Image: g200612b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200612b.jpg)
Chinese soldiers mobilized to the northwest plateau near Ladakh in images shown on state television (SCMP, Weibo)
China has occupied more than sixty square kilometres of Indian
territory in eastern Ladakh, according to a senior Indian Army source.
China has mobilized thousands of paratroopers, armoured vehicles and
equipment in a military drill on a plateau near Ladakh, the border
region disputed by India and China. According to state media
reports, they could be deployed "within hours" to the Ladakh region.
According to India's media, China's army has been carrying out
manoeuvres to occupy Indian territory and build concrete defenses on
it. China now has at least two group armies, three air force bases,
and one rocket force base in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with
over 200,000 soldiers conducting combat training.
These steps signal a dramatic escalation in border tensions by
China's military. In response, India has been reinforcing its
forces on the India-China border.
So far, not a shot has been fired on either side, since that would
amount to a declaration of full-scale war, but that there have been
clashes anyway. Seventy Indian troops were injured in fist-fighting
and stone-throwing as they tried to stop the advance.
India must now prepare for a two-front war, with the Pakistan military
on one side and China's army in the east. Pakistan and China have
been doing combined combat training since 2011.
Indian army sources say that that similar Chinese army troop movement
is occurring in multiple locations in all three sectors -- western,
middle and eastern -- of the 3,488-km boundary that India shares with
China. While the current faceoff has been restricted to eastern
Ladakh, which is in the western sector, armies on both sides have
augmented their military strength even in the middle and eastern
sectors.
Divisional commanders on both the Chinese and India side met
on Wednesday to discuss moving troops back. Nothing was resolved,
although negotiations are expected to continue in the near future.
The United Nations is calling for restraint. UN officials undoubtedly
believe that a border war would be "unacceptable," and they would not
hesitate to take firm action by calling a committee meeting or a press
conference. Russia would blame the United States.
****
**** Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation
****
As I've written a number of times in the past, I do not expect WW III
to begin with some major attack, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
or Japan or a missile attack on the United States. Those acts would
come later. Major wars begin with small events. In a generational
Crisis era, when public levels of nationalism and xenophobia are very
high, a small event can be a match that lights an explosive fire.
World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor, nor did
it begin with the invasion of Poland.
As I've described in the past, World War II began in 1937 with the
Marco Polo Bridge incident. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km
south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised
the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were
deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese
people really hated each other. On July 7, a small group of Japanese
soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one
soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also
stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the
Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. There were
negotiations, and the situation was settled quickly. (The "abducted"
soldier had merely gotten lost in the woods.)
So the two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides then brought
in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading
to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.
What's remarkable about the Ladach border situation is its similarity
to the Marco Polo Bridge incident that triggered World War II. In
particular, both the Indian and Chinese populations are in highly
nationalistic and xenophobic moods, and this is the kind of mood that
leads to a "shoot first, look later" situation. All it would take is
one gunshot to trigger an escalation situation. And there are similar
potential border confrontations all along the 3,488-km boundary that
separates China from India.
This doesn't mean that the Ladakh border incident will lead to full
scale war. In fact, confrontations like the one going on in Ladach
are not uncommon, and they're settled quickly.
But this particular confrontation is raising international concern
because positions on both sides appear to be hardening. China is
occupying Indian land, and will not back off. In the border
confrontation in May 2018, China did back off, possibly because the
confrontation was taking place Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, and Bhutan
asked India to prevent a China takeover. It was speculated at the
time that China backed off because China was not ready for a
full-scale war with India, and wanted to wait until it WAS ready for a
full-scale war.
What's remarkable about these border situations, alternating between
negotiations and reinforcements, is their similarity to the incident
that triggered World War II. With nationalism and xenophobia growing
on both sides of this enormous border, with troop buildups at several
locations along this border, it's quite possible that one of the
India-China border confrontations will be the trigger that spirals
into a major war.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Ladakh,
Pakistan, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau,
Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Japan, Rape of Nanking
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh
- Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation
****
**** China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh
****
Chinese soldiers mobilized to the northwest plateau near Ladakh in images shown on state television (SCMP, Weibo)
China has occupied more than sixty square kilometres of Indian
territory in eastern Ladakh, according to a senior Indian Army source.
China has mobilized thousands of paratroopers, armoured vehicles and
equipment in a military drill on a plateau near Ladakh, the border
region disputed by India and China. According to state media
reports, they could be deployed "within hours" to the Ladakh region.
According to India's media, China's army has been carrying out
manoeuvres to occupy Indian territory and build concrete defenses on
it. China now has at least two group armies, three air force bases,
and one rocket force base in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with
over 200,000 soldiers conducting combat training.
These steps signal a dramatic escalation in border tensions by
China's military. In response, India has been reinforcing its
forces on the India-China border.
So far, not a shot has been fired on either side, since that would
amount to a declaration of full-scale war, but that there have been
clashes anyway. Seventy Indian troops were injured in fist-fighting
and stone-throwing as they tried to stop the advance.
India must now prepare for a two-front war, with the Pakistan military
on one side and China's army in the east. Pakistan and China have
been doing combined combat training since 2011.
Indian army sources say that that similar Chinese army troop movement
is occurring in multiple locations in all three sectors -- western,
middle and eastern -- of the 3,488-km boundary that India shares with
China. While the current faceoff has been restricted to eastern
Ladakh, which is in the western sector, armies on both sides have
augmented their military strength even in the middle and eastern
sectors.
Divisional commanders on both the Chinese and India side met
on Wednesday to discuss moving troops back. Nothing was resolved,
although negotiations are expected to continue in the near future.
The United Nations is calling for restraint. UN officials undoubtedly
believe that a border war would be "unacceptable," and they would not
hesitate to take firm action by calling a committee meeting or a press
conference. Russia would blame the United States.
****
**** Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation
****
As I've written a number of times in the past, I do not expect WW III
to begin with some major attack, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
or Japan or a missile attack on the United States. Those acts would
come later. Major wars begin with small events. In a generational
Crisis era, when public levels of nationalism and xenophobia are very
high, a small event can be a match that lights an explosive fire.
World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor, nor did
it begin with the invasion of Poland.
As I've described in the past, World War II began in 1937 with the
Marco Polo Bridge incident. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km
south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised
the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were
deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese
people really hated each other. On July 7, a small group of Japanese
soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one
soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also
stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the
Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. There were
negotiations, and the situation was settled quickly. (The "abducted"
soldier had merely gotten lost in the woods.)
So the two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides then brought
in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading
to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.
What's remarkable about the Ladach border situation is its similarity
to the Marco Polo Bridge incident that triggered World War II. In
particular, both the Indian and Chinese populations are in highly
nationalistic and xenophobic moods, and this is the kind of mood that
leads to a "shoot first, look later" situation. All it would take is
one gunshot to trigger an escalation situation. And there are similar
potential border confrontations all along the 3,488-km boundary that
separates China from India.
This doesn't mean that the Ladakh border incident will lead to full
scale war. In fact, confrontations like the one going on in Ladach
are not uncommon, and they're settled quickly.
But this particular confrontation is raising international concern
because positions on both sides appear to be hardening. China is
occupying Indian land, and will not back off. In the border
confrontation in May 2018, China did back off, possibly because the
confrontation was taking place Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, and Bhutan
asked India to prevent a China takeover. It was speculated at the
time that China backed off because China was not ready for a
full-scale war with India, and wanted to wait until it WAS ready for a
full-scale war.
What's remarkable about these border situations, alternating between
negotiations and reinforcements, is their similarity to the incident
that triggered World War II. With nationalism and xenophobia growing
on both sides of this enormous border, with troop buildups at several
locations along this border, it's quite possible that one of the
India-China border confrontations will be the trigger that spirals
into a major war.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
- Ladakh / China mobilises thousands of troops, armoured vehicles near border with India (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8-Jun-2020)
- Here's Why All's Not Well for India on the Ladakh Front (The Wire, India, 10-Jun-2020)
- Turkic links with Ladakh region: Once gateway of South, Central Asia (Anadolu, Turkey, 9-Jun-2020)
- China annexes 60 square km of India in Ladakh as simmering tensions erupt between two superpowers (Telegraph, London, 12-Jun-2020)
- Border Frictions with China Will Hurt India’s Development (China Focus, 10-Jun-2020)
- China-India border meeting injects hopes to ease tension; ‘bottom line’ with India non-negotiable: experts (Global Times, Beijing, 6-Jun-2020)
- Not just in Ladakh, India, China moved troops in all three sectors last month (Indian Express, 12-Jun-2020)
- Chinese diplomat tweets a twist to Ladakh standoff, sees link to Article 370 (Hindustan Times, 12-Jun-2020)
- Chinese media is the superspreader of disinformation: From Covid to Ladakh (The Print, India, 9-Jun-2020)
- Analysis | China’s Belt and Road Initiative fuels Ladakh standoff (The Hindu, 5-Jun-2020)
- Indian, Chinese Troops Mutually Pull Back From Most Ladakh Areas: Sources (New Delhi TV, 10-Jun-2020)
- Indian Army gains psychological edge as Chinese troops withdraw from eastern Ladakh (Zee News, India, 10-Jun-2020)
- India-China Stand-Off: Three Reasons Why The Crisis In Ladakh Is Far From Over (Swarajya, India, 10-Jun-2020)
- Tragic yarn: India-China border spat hits global cashmere production (FashionNetwork/AFP, 9-Jun-2020)
Related Articles
- Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable? (17-May-2020)
- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau (19-Dec-2017)
- Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff (24-Sep-2017)
- India and China battle for strategic influence in the Indian Ocean (18-Mar-2015)
- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China (25-May-2016)
- India about to deploy its first nuclear-armed submarine, in challenge to China (03-Mar-2016)
- As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China (01-Sep-2017)
- As Narendra Modi visits Washington, China threatens India after border clash (28-Jun-2017)
- Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China (03-Apr-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Ladakh,
Pakistan, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau,
Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Japan, Rape of Nanking
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
