06-14-2020, 08:59 PM
** 14-Jun-2020 World View: Covid-19 vs Spanish Flu pandemic
With the number of Covid-19 cases globally continuing to rise, rapidly
in some places, it's clear that the pandemic is going to get far
worse, but that a lot of the analysis you hear on tv is delusional,
and tries to give the impression that the worst is over.
An exception is Michael Osterholm, Univ of Minnesota, infectious
disease epidemiologist, appeared on Fox News Sunday today.
His major point was this: "Only 5% of the population has been infected
so far. This virus will not slow down until 60-70% of the population
has been infected."
These figures mean that the Covid-19 pandemic will have the same
results as the 1917-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. I compared the two
pandemics in this article:
** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200322
This means that some 20 million people will be infected, unless
a miracle vaccine is found quickly.
There have been 115,000 deaths so far. The CDC projects
125,000 to 140,000 deaths by July 4.
This suggests that there will be 2 million deaths before it's over,
unless a miracle vaccine or treatment is found quickly. This is
comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic.
According to Osterholm:
With the number of Covid-19 cases globally continuing to rise, rapidly
in some places, it's clear that the pandemic is going to get far
worse, but that a lot of the analysis you hear on tv is delusional,
and tries to give the impression that the worst is over.
An exception is Michael Osterholm, Univ of Minnesota, infectious
disease epidemiologist, appeared on Fox News Sunday today.
His major point was this: "Only 5% of the population has been infected
so far. This virus will not slow down until 60-70% of the population
has been infected."
These figures mean that the Covid-19 pandemic will have the same
results as the 1917-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. I compared the two
pandemics in this article:
** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200322
This means that some 20 million people will be infected, unless
a miracle vaccine is found quickly.
There have been 115,000 deaths so far. The CDC projects
125,000 to 140,000 deaths by July 4.
This suggests that there will be 2 million deaths before it's over,
unless a miracle vaccine or treatment is found quickly. This is
comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic.
According to Osterholm:
Quote:> "So one way or another, we're gonna see lots of
> additional cases.
> Will reopening [end lockdowns] increase the number of cases? It
> should, and in some states it's substantially increasing, but in
> some states it's been dropping. We don't understand why.
> We're not driving this tiger - we're riding it. we're going to
> go from 5% of the population affected with all the pain, death,
> suffering and economic disruption that's occurred today. Trust
> me, we have a long ways to go to get to that 60 or 70% of people
> infected, unless we get a vaccine in time. How we're gonna get
> there is still unclear.
> My greatest concern is if cases did start to disappear across the
> country, suggesting that we're in a "trough," meaning a true wave
> change. We may have several months of few cases. That would
> suggest it could be like influenza, and come back with a very
> significant second wave late in the fall. ...
> The important thing is that we're not planning for the fact that
> we're going to see a very substantial part of the country becoming
> infected over the next 12-18 months, if we don't have a vaccine.
> We will never be blue and red again. We'll be covid
> colored."
