06-20-2020, 12:10 PM
** 19-Jun-2020 World View: Russia and China
Interesting.
But there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Russia and China
will be allied in a generational crisis war. As I've written before,
the Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated
the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all
the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that
China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact,
Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as
the 1960s.
Furthermore, China is Pakistan's "all-weather friend," whose
friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." And India
will be fighting a two-front war with Pakistan and China.
China is very closely allied with Pakistan, which is very closely
allied with the Sunni states. China and India are bitter enemies, as
are Pakistan and India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and
India is very closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied
with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680.
Connecting the dots, the US is going to be allied with India, Russia
and Iran, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If
that seems surprising, remember that Russia was our bitter enemy
before WW II, was our ally during WW II, and was our bitter enemy
after WW II, so you can't judge from today's political alignments how
nations will act when they're facing an existential crisis in the form
of a generational crisis war.
If China and Russia are allied today, it's purely ephemeral and
political. They're particularly allied in the United Nations, because
they're both committing international crimes by illegal annexations,
and then supporting each other in the Security Council. This is honor
among thieves, but it won't last the first shot being fired.
Navigator Wrote:> I thought it might help explain my points of view if I explained a
> bit how I came to Generational Dynamics, and how my views align
> (or do not align) with this system/philosophy.
> As a hobbyist historian, I found it curious that the major events
> in US History seemed to follow an 80 year cycle. 80 years between
> the Revolution and the Civil War. 80 years between the Civil War
> and World War Two. To me, things like this are not chance.
> I believe that at the most fundamental level, there is either a
> “Higher Power” or everything happens “by chance”. I think that if
> you don’t believe in a “Higher Power” then you believe that the
> Universe/world/mankind were created “by chance”, the so-called
> random events that would need to occur for life to exist.
> Personally, I believe that there is a “Higher Power”.
> Furthermore, I believe that this “Higher Power’s” greatest
> creation is not celestial bodies or orbiting planets, but rather
> the History of this World.
> So, when I looked at the cycles that seemed to be occurring, I
> found that John had developed a good model for explaining the
> stages of the repeating cycle and how different
> nationalities/cultures can be in different stages at any given
> point in time.
> I was further enamored of John’s distillation of current world
> events. His daily articles usually had more insight into what was
> actually happening than bundles of newspapers and innumerable
> websites. BTW, I miss being able to read new ones every day,
> though I certainly understand why John has had to cut back.
> I am in agreement with John over the next basic steps, financial
> calamity and World War.
> However, I do think, in contrast to John, that the “other side” in
> the war will be a China/Russia main alliance. I, personally,
> don’t have an opinion on how the Sunni/Shiite thing will split in
> the war, as I consider both (currently) so far off base as to want
> nothing to do with either faction. I do have hopes for Iran to
> fix itself, as Generational Dynamics predicts, but I think it will
> take Iran’s involvement in a major war for this to happen.
> One of the reasons I believe in the China/Russia alliance is my
> personal belief that Europe is not going to remain untouched by a
> major war between primarily US and China (or, as John predicts,
> between US-Russia and China). In fact, I think that a lot of the
> upcoming future war will take place in Central Europe, and that WW
> III will have a two-front dynamic for the US that WW II did.
> I believe that God (the “Higher Power”) provides guidance and
> clues regarding what is going to happen next. In some way, I
> believe that what will happen next is similar to what happened in
> the last two World Wars.
> To me, the First World War was about the destruction of the great
> absolute monarchies (Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany). The
> war saw their demise. There followed, for Central Europe, a
> period of near anarchy, of revolutions, coups, and financial
> chaos. And out of this arose a number of dictators who were far
> worse than the absolute monarchs; Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.
> This is roughly what I think will happen with WW III. The next
> world war will utterly destroy the socialist states. They will no
> longer be able to provide for their citizens. This is because the
> financial system as we know it will be completely bankrupted and
> unable to continue after WW III.
> Even with the impending financial meltdown due to current
> conditions, I think that something will be done to keep it limping
> along until the war, and then there will be “emergency
> measures”. But a global war will see the world end up financially
> like the Confederacy at the end or Germany or France in 1919.
> We have allowed the social structures that could compensate for
> these calamities to decay. This will lead to a post WW III period
> for Europe that will be FAR worse than the post WW I period. And
> the individuals with power that will emerge out of this anarchy, I
> believe, will be far worse than Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.
> As bad as this sounds, I believe it is all part of the plan of
> history designed by God. I believe that history was designed to
> fulfill a purpose, and that it has a culmination. In the end, I
> believe the culmination results in a “greater good”, but it will
> be an extremely trying and difficult period to experience first
> hand.
Interesting.
But there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Russia and China
will be allied in a generational crisis war. As I've written before,
the Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated
the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all
the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that
China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact,
Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as
the 1960s.
Furthermore, China is Pakistan's "all-weather friend," whose
friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." And India
will be fighting a two-front war with Pakistan and China.
China is very closely allied with Pakistan, which is very closely
allied with the Sunni states. China and India are bitter enemies, as
are Pakistan and India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and
India is very closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied
with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680.
Connecting the dots, the US is going to be allied with India, Russia
and Iran, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If
that seems surprising, remember that Russia was our bitter enemy
before WW II, was our ally during WW II, and was our bitter enemy
after WW II, so you can't judge from today's political alignments how
nations will act when they're facing an existential crisis in the form
of a generational crisis war.
If China and Russia are allied today, it's purely ephemeral and
political. They're particularly allied in the United Nations, because
they're both committing international crimes by illegal annexations,
and then supporting each other in the Security Council. This is honor
among thieves, but it won't last the first shot being fired.
