07-09-2020, 03:04 PM
** 09-Jul-2020 World View: Infections
If the 20% figure is true, it would make a big difference.
mooreupp Wrote:> On the 3%, I think that will prove to be a underestimation. When
> they did random antibody tests in different places in the US and
> elsewhere in April and May, we were getting at least 10x as many
> people infected as official totals everywhere, sometimes far more.
> I suspect that has probably decreased some with additional
> testing, but is also probably far higher in areas of the world
> where testing is rare. The CDC did come on board with saying 10x
> as many (although it didn't exactly make big news).
> https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/06/27...idis-says/
> The US is a bit shy of 3 million confirmed cases. That 10x number
> if it holds would put us close to 30 million already infected in
> America which is almost a 1/10 the population. That's mostly good
> news as it means the mortality rate on this is also a fraction of
> advertised and we are further along on this than most suspect
> (although we will probably never actually get rid of this).
> Further, there is actually a bit more good news in the numbers.
> We've had evidence people have cross-immunity from other diseases
> in this (other coronaviruses or something that helps out). I've
> seen suggestions from people I trust with numbers that it seems to
> be holding up near half the population (whether that is permanent
> protection or short term I do not know though). Given the R0 is
> estimated around a 3.0 in a completely vulnerable population, we
> need around 2/3 the population to be immune for herd immunity.
> Well if 1/2 the population already is (at least short term), then
> we only need around 17% of the population to get it (plus or minus
> depending on location) to get herd immunity.
> That makes sense with other numbers we've seen. The hard hit
> areas seem to be topping out at 20% and then the spread slows. My
> personal guess is New York City is already at herd immunity.
> Decreased social distancing there would create a spike in cases,
> but it would be impossible to get the runaway one like
> before.
If the 20% figure is true, it would make a big difference.
