07-25-2020, 10:48 PM
*** 26-Jul-20 World View -- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
****
![[Image: g200725b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200725b.jpg)
Map showing Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East
Russia's government in Moscow has been caught by surprise by
large anti-government protests in Khabarovsk, eight time zones
away in Russia's Far East.
Protests have been growing for several weeks, and on Saturday, tens of
thousands of people in Khabarovsk took part in protest marches.
Protests have also spread to other cities. They were protesting the
arrest, on July 9, of Sergei Furgal, the democratically elected
governor, who was "kidnapped" back to Moscow, over 6,000 km away.
Furgal was arrested on charges that he was involved in three murders
in the early 2000s. The protesters were demanding that if Furgal was
going to be tried, then the trial must take place in Khabarovsk, not
6,000 km away in Moscow.
Furgal was unexpectedly elected governor of the Khabarovsk Region in
September 2018, beating the candidate who had been hand-picked by
Vladimir Putin. Furgal has remained a popular figure ever since, and
in 2019, his Liberal Democratic party won a landslide victory. After
Furgal's arrest, and before any trial, Furgal was fired as governor,
and Putin replaced him with a federal politician Mikhail Degtyaryov as
acting governor to the region. Degtyaryov is from the same party as
Furgal, but presumably he will do as he's told by Putin.
Theoretically, Russia is a functioning democracy, but as a practical
matter, the candidates selected by Putin always win, and are expected
to do as they're told when in office. Furgal did not do as he was
told, and his removal and replacement by Putin is seen not only as a
necessary step to bring the Khabarovsk Region under control, but also
as a warning to any other governor who might be thinking of straying
from the official line.
Nonetheless, the size of the anti-government protests has been a shock
to the Kremlin, with an estimated 30,000 protesters marching to the
Khabarovsk capital building on Saturday.
At the march, demonstrators chanted slogans like "Disgrace!", "Fair
trial in Khabarovsk!", “As long as we are united, we are invincible!”
and “Freedom for Furgal!” Many demanded President Putin resign
because local people had lost trust in him.
The new governor, Degtyaryov, has already offended people by refusing
to meet with local citizens, saying that he won't meet with those who
come "yelling under my windows."
Putin has always responded harshly to protests, but this one caught
him by surprise. If the protests continue, we can expect violence
by the security forces in the coming weeks.
****
**** History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok
****
Khabarovsk is the capital city and largest city of the Khabarovsk Krai
(administrative region), with a population of 600,000, including
thousands of Chinese migrants that have crossed over the Amur River
from China.
Many Chinese claim that Khabarovsk really belongs to China. They
point to Hong Kong, which became a British colony in 1842 because of
the Opium Wars and what the Chinese call an "unfair treaty." Hong
Kong was handed back to China in 1997. Many in Chinese social media
claim that Khabarovsk became part of Russia because of another "unfair
treaty," the May 1858 Treaty of Aigun between Russia and China that
settled the boundary between the two countries, when China was
weakened by the Taiping Rebellion. The Chinese are claiming that
Russia should hand Khabarovsk back to China, just as Hong Kong was
handed back to China. However, the region demanded by China also
contains Vladivostok, which is the location of Russia's Pacific
military fleet, so there is little chance that Russia would agree to
any such thing without a major war. Still, China and Russia fought a
border war in the 1960s, so there may be a new war at some point.
However, it won't be soon. Russia and China currently have a
"marriage of convenience," where they pretend to love each other.
They need each other's support because they're both criminal outlaws,
with China illegally annexing the South China Sea and Russia
illegally annexing eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
****
**** China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses
****
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself has been suffering numerous
serious reverses lately. The Trump administration's closing of
China's Houston consulate is a major blow to the Chinese military's
espionage program. China is receiving worldwide condemnation for many
of its policies that were previously ignored, or even supported by the
credulous Western mainstream press -- purposely seeding hundreds of
countries with the Wuhan Coronavirus, causing worldwide economic
devastation, arresting, torturing and enslaving millions of Muslim
Uighurs, imposing dictatorial policies on Hong Kong through its new
security law.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is running into problems because
China's infrastructure agreements with numerous countries, especially
in Africa, imposed huge debt requirements, thanks to China's
"debt trap diplomacy," and now because the Wuhan Coronavirus has shut
down many economies, many countries can no longer make the debt
repayments.
What many people don't realize is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
has no strategy. They're planning to annex part of India, annex
part of Vietnam, annex Russia's Far East, launch a war of revenge
against Japan, and annex Taiwan. But what's the strategy? Even if
China wins all those wars (and it will probably lose all of them),
then those gains will disappear within two generations.
At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union had won control of numerous
countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 1991, Russia had
lost control of all of those countries. The same would happen with
China. So what's China strategy after it wins all those wars?
If there is one, I'm not aware of it.
The CCP thugs today are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional.
What do we do now? Attack Taiwan? Attack India? Sign up another
BRI country? They don't know what to do next, so they might
do anything. Sooner or later that will lead to war.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
---- Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Far East, Khabarovsk,
Sergei Furgal, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Degtyaryov,
Vladivostok, China, Hong Kong, Aigun Treaty,
South China Sea, Ukraine, Crimea,
Uighurs, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Wuhan Coronavirus, Japan, Taiwan, India
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
- History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok
- China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses
****
**** Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
****
Map showing Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East
Russia's government in Moscow has been caught by surprise by
large anti-government protests in Khabarovsk, eight time zones
away in Russia's Far East.
Protests have been growing for several weeks, and on Saturday, tens of
thousands of people in Khabarovsk took part in protest marches.
Protests have also spread to other cities. They were protesting the
arrest, on July 9, of Sergei Furgal, the democratically elected
governor, who was "kidnapped" back to Moscow, over 6,000 km away.
Furgal was arrested on charges that he was involved in three murders
in the early 2000s. The protesters were demanding that if Furgal was
going to be tried, then the trial must take place in Khabarovsk, not
6,000 km away in Moscow.
Furgal was unexpectedly elected governor of the Khabarovsk Region in
September 2018, beating the candidate who had been hand-picked by
Vladimir Putin. Furgal has remained a popular figure ever since, and
in 2019, his Liberal Democratic party won a landslide victory. After
Furgal's arrest, and before any trial, Furgal was fired as governor,
and Putin replaced him with a federal politician Mikhail Degtyaryov as
acting governor to the region. Degtyaryov is from the same party as
Furgal, but presumably he will do as he's told by Putin.
Theoretically, Russia is a functioning democracy, but as a practical
matter, the candidates selected by Putin always win, and are expected
to do as they're told when in office. Furgal did not do as he was
told, and his removal and replacement by Putin is seen not only as a
necessary step to bring the Khabarovsk Region under control, but also
as a warning to any other governor who might be thinking of straying
from the official line.
Nonetheless, the size of the anti-government protests has been a shock
to the Kremlin, with an estimated 30,000 protesters marching to the
Khabarovsk capital building on Saturday.
At the march, demonstrators chanted slogans like "Disgrace!", "Fair
trial in Khabarovsk!", “As long as we are united, we are invincible!”
and “Freedom for Furgal!” Many demanded President Putin resign
because local people had lost trust in him.
The new governor, Degtyaryov, has already offended people by refusing
to meet with local citizens, saying that he won't meet with those who
come "yelling under my windows."
Putin has always responded harshly to protests, but this one caught
him by surprise. If the protests continue, we can expect violence
by the security forces in the coming weeks.
****
**** History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok
****
Khabarovsk is the capital city and largest city of the Khabarovsk Krai
(administrative region), with a population of 600,000, including
thousands of Chinese migrants that have crossed over the Amur River
from China.
Many Chinese claim that Khabarovsk really belongs to China. They
point to Hong Kong, which became a British colony in 1842 because of
the Opium Wars and what the Chinese call an "unfair treaty." Hong
Kong was handed back to China in 1997. Many in Chinese social media
claim that Khabarovsk became part of Russia because of another "unfair
treaty," the May 1858 Treaty of Aigun between Russia and China that
settled the boundary between the two countries, when China was
weakened by the Taiping Rebellion. The Chinese are claiming that
Russia should hand Khabarovsk back to China, just as Hong Kong was
handed back to China. However, the region demanded by China also
contains Vladivostok, which is the location of Russia's Pacific
military fleet, so there is little chance that Russia would agree to
any such thing without a major war. Still, China and Russia fought a
border war in the 1960s, so there may be a new war at some point.
However, it won't be soon. Russia and China currently have a
"marriage of convenience," where they pretend to love each other.
They need each other's support because they're both criminal outlaws,
with China illegally annexing the South China Sea and Russia
illegally annexing eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
****
**** China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses
****
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself has been suffering numerous
serious reverses lately. The Trump administration's closing of
China's Houston consulate is a major blow to the Chinese military's
espionage program. China is receiving worldwide condemnation for many
of its policies that were previously ignored, or even supported by the
credulous Western mainstream press -- purposely seeding hundreds of
countries with the Wuhan Coronavirus, causing worldwide economic
devastation, arresting, torturing and enslaving millions of Muslim
Uighurs, imposing dictatorial policies on Hong Kong through its new
security law.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is running into problems because
China's infrastructure agreements with numerous countries, especially
in Africa, imposed huge debt requirements, thanks to China's
"debt trap diplomacy," and now because the Wuhan Coronavirus has shut
down many economies, many countries can no longer make the debt
repayments.
What many people don't realize is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
has no strategy. They're planning to annex part of India, annex
part of Vietnam, annex Russia's Far East, launch a war of revenge
against Japan, and annex Taiwan. But what's the strategy? Even if
China wins all those wars (and it will probably lose all of them),
then those gains will disappear within two generations.
At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union had won control of numerous
countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 1991, Russia had
lost control of all of those countries. The same would happen with
China. So what's China strategy after it wins all those wars?
If there is one, I'm not aware of it.
The CCP thugs today are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional.
What do we do now? Attack Taiwan? Attack India? Sign up another
BRI country? They don't know what to do next, so they might
do anything. Sooner or later that will lead to war.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
---- Sources:
- Russian Commentators Try To Explain Why Khabarovsk Residents Massively Rallied In Support Of Their Governor Sergei Furgal Following His Arrest On Murder Charges (Memri, 20-Jul-2020)
- Sergei Furgal: Tens of thousands protest in Khabarovsk against arrest of Russian governor on murder charges (Sky News, 25-Jul-2020)
- Russia / Thousands rally in Khabarovsk for 3rd consecutive Saturday over arrested ex-governor Furgal (Russia Today, 25-Jul-2020)
- Khabarovsk / Anger at Kremlin Grows in Latest Massive Russian Far East Protest (Moscow Times, 25-Jul-2020)
- Khabarovsk / Putin-Appointed Governor Defies Calls to Leave Protest-Hit Russian Region (Moscow Times, 22-Jul-2020)
- Russia’s Khabarovsk Region Tasted Democracy. Now Voters Feel It Was Ripped Away. (Moscow Times, 25-Jul-2020)
- Khabarovsk / Protesters In Russia's Far East Challenge Putin's Authority, Demand His Resignation (NPR, 24-Jul-2020)
- He was elected governor without campaigning and even endorsed Putin’s candidate. Now, he’s under arrest and big protests are breaking out in Russia. (AP, 25-Jul-2020)
- Mass anti-Kremlin rallies grip Russia’s Far East (AFP, 25-Jul-2020)
- ‘Special troublemakers’ The Khabarovsk Territory’s new acting governor says local protests are being organized from abroad. Here’s what the Kremlin thinks. (Meduza, Latvia, 25-Jul-2020)
- Sergey Furgal / Man of steel ‘Novaya Gazeta’ reports on the backroom business schemes that maybe ruined a Russian governor (Meduza, Latvia, 24-Jul-2020)
- Russia-China relations in the Russian Far East (Observer Research Foundation, 16-Jul-2020)
- Developing the Far East and Chinese-Russian Relations: New Perceptions and New Practices (Valdai Club, PDF, 8/2019):
- Explained: Why 160-year-old Vladivostok has a Chinese connection (IndianExpress, 7-Jul-2020)
- Khabarovsk, Russia (Britannica)
- Khabarovsk (Wiki travel)
- Russia Far East / China / Khabarovsk / The Treaty of Aigun (Harvard.edu)
- Khabarovsk Shipbuilding Yard (Fas.org, 24-Aug-2000)
Related Articles:
- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China (31-Mar-2018)
- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America (27-Jan-2017)
- Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue (21-Jun-2015)
- The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity (22-Mar-2014)
- Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China (21-Jun-2015)
- Russia warns of Chinese occupation of Siberia and Far East (12-Aug-2012)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Far East, Khabarovsk,
Sergei Furgal, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Degtyaryov,
Vladivostok, China, Hong Kong, Aigun Treaty,
South China Sea, Ukraine, Crimea,
Uighurs, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Wuhan Coronavirus, Japan, Taiwan, India
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
