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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 9-Aug-20 World View -- Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion
  • Why was 2750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer in Beirut's seaport for years?
  • Theory of Government in Lebanon - Generational Dynamics
  • Seeking a political solution in Lebanon
  • The future of Lebanon

****
**** Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion
****


[Image: g200808b.jpg]
Protests in Beirut Lebanon's Martyrs' Square on Saturday.

Police are firing rubber bullets and teargas at protesters in Martyrs'
Square in central Beirut, Lebanon's capital city. One person was
killed and dozens injured on Saturday, as government buildings were
occupied by protesters.

There is a growing anti-government fury in Lebanon, following
the catastrophic explosion on Tuesday at the Beirut seaport.
Hundreds were killed, thousands were injured, hundreds of thousands
are now homeless because their homes were destroyed.

The exploded materials were 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate
fertilizer that had been stored in the seaport since 2013. As a point
of comparison, Timothy McVeigh used only about one ton of ammonium
nitrate fertilizer to destroy the Oklahoma City federal building in
1995.

There is a growing fury in Beirut that the politicians who have been
destroying Lebanon's economy for years by lining their own pockets
have allowed this to happen. A lot of people knew about the stored
fertilizer, and a lot of people complained about it during the last
six years, but nothing was done. It was just allowed to sit there,
without proper precautions taken. Meanwhile the corrupt élite
politicians just continued growing fat and happy, allowing the
economic collapse to worsen month after month, allowing garbage to
pile up around the city, taking kickbacks for approving defective fuel
oil so there's been no electricity, and still going on tv and spouting
the usual unbearable self-serving crap that comes from all politicians
who are incapable of accomplishing anything but the enrichment of
themselves and their cronies.

Even before the explosion, even before the Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic,
the country Lebanon was already on the verge of collapse. Nearly 50%
of the population are living in poverty. Lebanon has two problems.
The Iran-controlled terrorist group Hezbollah runs the country, but is
receiving less money from its puppetmaster Iran, thanks to US
sanctions. And second, there is massive government corruption,
stemming from its "confessional system of government," where power is
divided based on sectarian affiliation or confession (Sunni, Shia,
Christian), as I've described in detail in the past. The confessional
form of government has worked fairly well in resolving disputes in
both Iraq and Lebanon, but it gives each sectarian group unrestricted
access to the funds of the portions of government it controls, leading
to a situation where government officials take all the money for
themselves, and let the people starve and freeze in darkness. Now,
for the first time, there is massive anger growing against Hezbollah
in both Lebanon and Iraq, and Lebanon's government may collapse
completely.

The country has been in free fall for months. The currency has
collapsed. The unemployment rate is over 30%. A tainted fuel oil
scandal revealed enormous corruption -- bribes, forged documents, and
falsified tests. There have been anti-government protests for months,
and after the explosion they are now propelled by a new fury.

The 2750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer was left sitting in a
storage warehouse, adjacent to a fireworks factory, in the midst of a
densely packed residential area. 300,000 people lost their homes from
the explosion, hundreds were killed, and thousands were wounded. 85%
of the country's grain storage was destroyed. Several hospitals were
destroyed. The explosion was far larger than anyone had ever seen,
and property was damaged and windows broken all across the city, and
for miles around. The explosion could be heard as far away as Cyprus.

Public officials in Lebanon are all trying to cover their asses to
claim that they had nothing to do with storing 2750 tonnes of
fertilizer in the seaport for several years, and each one is pointing
to someone else to blame. Citizens in Lebanon are blaming the entire
government, and demanding that all of it be thrown out.

It's interesting that none of Lebanon's politicians is willing to come
to Martyrs' Square to talk with the people. The only politician who
did so was France's president Emmanuel Macron, who visited Beirut on
Thursday and poignantly went into the square to talk to the people
that Lebanon's leaders didn't dare talk to.

Marwan Bishara at al-Jazeera is reporting that Hezbollah officials are
referring to the protesters in Martyrs' Square as "the scum of the earth."
We'll discuss this more later.

****
**** Why was 2750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer in Beirut's seaport for years?
****


The sequence of events was so ridiculous that it would be a joke if
it hadn't ended in catastrophe. Here's a summary:
  • In September 2013, the Moldovan-flagged cargo ship MV Rhosus
    left Georgia's Batumi Port in the Black Sea, carrying the 2750 tonnes
    of ammonium nitrate, headed to Biera in Mozambique.

  • The ship passed from the Black Sea, through Turkey's Bosphorous,
    and reached the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where technical problems
    forced the ship to enter Beirut seaport.

  • However, a different narrative has emerged that the reason that
    the ship stopped in Beirut seaport was because additional money was
    needed to pay for passage through the Suez Canal. So the plan in
    Beirut was to collect an additional cargo of heavy machinery, but as
    it turned out, the machinery was too heavy to load.

  • Either way, the ship's owner did not pay port fees and fines, and
    so Lebanon authorities impounded the ship and its cargo, and the
    owners abandoned the ship.

  • Lebanon's "Urgent Matters Court" took over. At first the judge
    refused to let the crew return home from the impounded ship, but
    eventually they were allowed to go, though some waited on the ship for
    over a year and almost starved to death. The judge ruled that the
    ammonium nitrate should be moved into "Warehouse 12", next to the
    grain silos in the seaport, where the cargo remained for years,
    "awaiting auctioning and/or proper disposal."

  • Since 2014, Lebanon's "Urgent Matters Court" was asked repeatedly
    to allow the dangerous cargo to be removed. Customs authorities
    proposed three options: Export the ammonium nitrate, hand it over to
    the Lebanese Army, or sell it to the privately-owned Lebanese
    Explosives Company. The judge ignored all such requests, probably
    because he was being paid off by someone who wanted to keep control of
    the ammonium nitrate. This is typical of corruption in Lebanon's
    political class.

****
**** Theory of Government in Lebanon - Generational Dynamics
****


Imagine if there were no checks and balances in the US constitution.
Donald Trump would have been able to impose all sorts of immigration
and other policies with no resistance from the courts or Democrats.
Similarly, if the Democrats were in power, they would be able to
impose far left Socialist green new deal policies without resistance.
It's the checks and balances in the US constitution that prevent
radical policies from being implemented, and force compromises.

China illustrates what happens when there are no checks and balances.
An example of what happens is Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward policy
in 1958-60. This may have been the stupidest, most destructive policy
of any nation in the history of the world, and it resulted in tens of
millions of unnecessary deaths of innocent Chinese, from starvation,
execution and torture, all to impose a Socialist ideology. China's
economy still has not recovered from the disaster. It happened
because there were no courts to stop it, and any politician who
pointed out to Mao that it was failing was tortured and executed.
Today, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and dictator Xi Jinping are
repeating mistakes in the same way -- genocide, executions, torture,
invasion, annexation, and so forth -- and there are no courts or
opposition to stop him. China is headed for another disaster. That's
what happens when you don't have government checks and balances like
the United States.

So that brings us to Lebanon's "dynastic confessional" system of
government. Lebanon's "confessional" system of government is defined
in its constitution, which requires that the three main government
offices be occupied by specific sectarian groups:
  • The prime minister, must be a Sunni Muslim. Hassan Diab
    is the prime minister. He assumed office on Jan 21, 2020.

  • The president, currently Michel Aoun, must be a Syriac Maronite
    Catholic.

  • And the speaker of parliament, currently held by Nabhi Berri, must
    be a Shia Muslim. The Shia Muslim sect in Lebanon is controlled by
    the terrorist militia Hezbollah, which is led by Sayyed Hasan
    Nasrallah.

Because each sect has complete control of one portion of the
government, there are no checks and balances and corruption is
rampant, with the leaders of each sect able to steal as much money as
they like from their own part of the government.

As time goes on, each sect creates its own dynasty within the section
of government that it controls. So one way to think of Lebanon's
government is, not as a dictatorship, but as a triple dictatorship,
which each dynastic sect have complete dictatorial control over one
part of government, with complete power of corruption, and no
controls, no checks, no balances.

This system of government was set up that way for a reason. Recall
that several paragraphs back I referred to Hezbollah politicians
referring to the protesters as "scum of the earth." The different
sects of Lebanon are not capable of simply getting along with each
other. The level of mutual hatred between the sects runs extremely
deep.

Recall Lebanon's last generational crisis war, the civil war of
1975-90, mainly between Muslims versus Christians, killing some
200,000 people. A major event occurred on September 15-16, 1982, when
Maronite Christian militias massacred 2-3,000 Palestinian civilians in
the Sabra and Shatila Palestinian refugee camps. This act has haunted
Lebanon to this day.

That was less than 40 years ago. Most of the people today vividly
remember the horror of that mass slaughter, and many are still
traumatized by it. 15 years ago, when I wrote about the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. I
quoted Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying:

<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>


In 2006, the people of Lebanon were still more sickened and horrified
by what they had done to each other in 1982 than in the bombing by
Israel's warplanes. The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of
something like the 1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered
that to be a worse possibility than Israeli bombers.

Some 14 more years have passed, but those feelings still remain.
There's a terror in the population that a spark will be lit,
and there will be another huge, bloody massacre of Lebanese people
by other Lebanese people, as happened in 1982.

Lebanon's political situation is complicated in another way. Lebanon
has become a vassal state of Iran, which uses Iran to fight its
Mideast wars. Iran itself has turned into a full-fledged vassal state
of China, who is buying Iranian oil as long as the Iranians do as
they're told. A political change in Lebanon could have some kind of
chain reaction in Iran and China.

****
**** Seeking a political solution in Lebanon
****


Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, a time when older
traumatized generations who had survived the war to anything possible
to prevent it from happening again, which the younger naive
generations rebel against the strict rules and institutions that their
parents had put in place. In America and Europe, the last Awakening
era was the 1960s, following the horrors of World War II.

One thing that WON'T happen in this current crisis in Lebanon is a new
civil war. There are too many people who are still traumatized by the
memories of the last one, and they won't let it happen again.

But what does happen during an Awakening era is a political climax --
a regime change, a "velvet revolution," "palace coup" or non-violent
coup that fundamentally changes the government in a significant way.
In America, this was the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974.
Another example is Germany's change of government that led to the
Weimar Republic in 1918.

So today's protesters in Martyrs' Square are seeking a major political
reform: Repeal the dynastic sectarian form of government and replace
it with a real democracy with checks and balances.

A solution of this kind will probably be adopted, but it has the
problem that it will tear down the firewalls between the sects that
the strictly confessional government provides. This would normally
lead to low-level clashes among the sects, and then full-scale
sectarian civil war again probably around 2040.

****
**** The future of Lebanon
****


[Image: g200808c.jpg]
Beirut seaport after the explosion on Tuesday (EPA)

It's hard to overstate how devastated Lebanon is. The economy was in
a state of collapse before Tuesday, and now hundreds of thousands more
are homeless and the food stocks have been destroyed. Lebanon is
desperately in need of international aid.

Lebanon has been negotiating for a bailout with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) for years. The problem is that there's no point
in giving money to Lebanon's corrupt government, since it would just
go into the coffers of the cronies of the sleazebag Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah, and the others. So the IMF refused to provide money to
Lebanon unless Lebanon reforms, which was never going to happen.

On Sunday, Emmanuel Macron will lead an international donors'
conference. Macron has already promised that aid to Beirut will not
fall into "corrupt hands," but whether there are any non-corrupt hands
left in Beirut remains to be seen.

Sources:

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut, ammonium nitrate, fertilizer,
Timothy McVeigh, Oklahoma City bombing, Iran, Hezbollah,
France, Emmanuel Macron, MV Rhosus, Martyrs' Square,
Dynastic confessional system of government,
Hassan Diab, Michel Aoun, Nabhi Berri, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
International Monetary Fund, IMF

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