Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 08:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.  Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.  The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

The Middle East has several conflicts going on.  The Arabs and Jews have a classic xenophobic relationship straight from the Industrial Age.  Organizations like the Taliban and Iran have cultures which are still close to the Agricultural Age, highly religious, highly autocratic, and again with xenophobic tendencies.  The Saudi Arabia elites collected much wealth by becoming colonial partners with the west.  They exemplify Industrial Age colonialism but many states are not ready to step beyond autocratic control.  Then there is the West.  They went after the oil big time and supported the Jew, but they go crazy if somebody treats them as part of the conflict.  

It used to be that the Arab / Jew conflict was dominant.  Of late the Iran / Saudi Arabia conflict is far more active.  The recent Israel UAE treaty reflects the shift in priorities.  One of the few things Obama and Trump have agreed on is that putting US boots on the ground is a bad idea.  The West is still protecting their interests, but are riding a lower profile.

Insurgency and proxy war currently rules.  If you want a bloody stalemate, go that way.  The exception in approach is the United States.  They will mix special forces spotters with air superiority.

The missing element is how the elites will profit.  If there was an easy way to use violence to gain a profit, the xenophobic hatred and religious ideals would provide enough excuse for a conflict.  As is, the only profit comes from selling oil.

The lack of paths to profit is the difference between the Industrial and Information ages.  It is the reason why various tribes and religions will cling to their land through proxy insurgent means, resist outside powers who attempt to meddle, but don’t tend to start overt conflicts.  Sure, each power currently believes its own culture superior, dreams of expanding their influence, but finds itself frustrated when it tries.

Thus I tend to doubt the Generational Dynamics prediction.  It is not that you cannot find flaws in most everyone, or find autocratic cultures that need to catch up with other parts of the world.  It is just that most are trying to upgrade the other guy’s culture rather than looking to improve their own.