09-05-2020, 10:08 PM
*** 6-Sep-20 World View -- India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China
****
![[Image: g200905b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200905b.jpg)
Chinese cartoon blaming China-India conflict on incitement by the US (Global Times)
Readers may recall that in June hostilities broke out between Chinese
and Indian troops in Ladakh's Galwan Valley, along the Line of Actual
Control (LAC), the unmarked boundary between the two countries. On
June 15, Chinese forces ambushed Indian forces in Ladakh's Galwan
Valley, using barbaric weapons consisting of bayonets, poles studded
with steel nails, and wooden clubs wrapped with barbed wire, killing
20 unarmed Indian soldiers. ( "25-Jun-20 World View -- Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim"
)
Now, almost three months later, there are still many unanswered
questions about what happened on June 15, since neither side has
issued a statement providing a full narrative. The Indians have said
that 20 Indian soldiers were killed, but the Chinese have not even
revealed how many Chinese soldiers were killed, leading to some
speculation. Various reports indicate that 40-45 Chinese soldiers
were killed, even though the Chinese were armed and the Indians were
unarmed. Furthermore, according to some unconfirmed reports, the
reason that the Chinese needed weapons and lost anyway is because
Indian soldiers are taller and stronger than the Chinese soldiers, and
so India soldiers defeat Chinese soldiers in hand to hand combat. If
any of this is true, then it would be huge embarrassment for the
Chinese military to admit it, and could lead to popular unrest and a
desire for revenge in China, and so they won't even admit how many
soldiers were killed.
The Chinese and Indian military have been having peace talks, most
recently at the ministerial level on Friday on the sidelines of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense ministers’ meeting,
with the meeting lasting over two hours. The peace talks have
not gone well, and they belie what's actually happening on the
ground.
What's happening on the ground is that Indians apparently scored a
major tactical victory two days ago. Both China and India have been
building up troops. But India last week executed a stealth night-time
operation to claim strategic outposts. Thousands of soldiers climbed
up mountain peaks for about six hours during the night to claim the
vantage points along the south bank of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake
under dispute. According to the Indians, this tactical move gives
them the high ground and a clear view of enemy troop movements in
disputed territory.
According to Chinese state media: "India bears full responsibility for
the current China-India border tensions and China's military is fully
determined, capable and confident to safeguard China's sovereignty and
territorial integrity."
Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International
Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, expects the
Indians to have to give up without a fight:
<QUOTE>"By the end of September, winter will have arrived in
the Ladakh region where temperatures could fall to minus 25
degrees, and India has deployed about 40,000 troops in the
region. This is far beyond its logistics capability, and if the
tension remained unresolved, the Indian military could see
non-combat casualties."<END QUOTE>
The conflict has spilled over into the economic area. India has
limited Chinese investments, is tightening scrutiny on vasas, is
blocking Huawei Technologies Co. out of 5G networks, and is
banning numerous Chinese mobile phone apps.
Some analysts are calling the current India-China relations in Ladakh
the most dangerous in decades. Both sides are massing troops, and if
it's really true that the Indian troops cannot tolerate the low winter
temperatures, then they'll have to either strike or retreat. The
winter months may bring a turning point.
****
**** Comments by Chinese analysts in the media
****
The Chinese communists have not admitted either their plans or
intentions in their mass military buildup in Ladakh. However, Antara
Ghosal Singh, a Chinese strategy expert at the Delhi Policy Group, has
done an analysis of commentary by the Chinese strategic community on
the situation. They all blame the Indians for the hostilities, and
give various reasons for they think that the Indians are doing this.
The following are some of the main points:
Many in China are fuming over India's tactical victory, and for its
"audacity" to wave a Tibetan "Snow Mountan Lion Flag" at the
confrontation site, the video of which went viral in the Chinese
social media. Chinese social media space has been buzzing with calls
for an "appropriate counterattack."
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Ladakh, Galwan Valley,
Line of Actual Control, LAC, Pangong Tso, Hu Zhiyong,
Antara Ghosal Singh
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China
- Comments by Chinese analysts in the media
****
**** India scores tactical victory in Ladakh border conflict, causing fury in China
****
Chinese cartoon blaming China-India conflict on incitement by the US (Global Times)
Readers may recall that in June hostilities broke out between Chinese
and Indian troops in Ladakh's Galwan Valley, along the Line of Actual
Control (LAC), the unmarked boundary between the two countries. On
June 15, Chinese forces ambushed Indian forces in Ladakh's Galwan
Valley, using barbaric weapons consisting of bayonets, poles studded
with steel nails, and wooden clubs wrapped with barbed wire, killing
20 unarmed Indian soldiers. ( "25-Jun-20 World View -- Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim"
)
Now, almost three months later, there are still many unanswered
questions about what happened on June 15, since neither side has
issued a statement providing a full narrative. The Indians have said
that 20 Indian soldiers were killed, but the Chinese have not even
revealed how many Chinese soldiers were killed, leading to some
speculation. Various reports indicate that 40-45 Chinese soldiers
were killed, even though the Chinese were armed and the Indians were
unarmed. Furthermore, according to some unconfirmed reports, the
reason that the Chinese needed weapons and lost anyway is because
Indian soldiers are taller and stronger than the Chinese soldiers, and
so India soldiers defeat Chinese soldiers in hand to hand combat. If
any of this is true, then it would be huge embarrassment for the
Chinese military to admit it, and could lead to popular unrest and a
desire for revenge in China, and so they won't even admit how many
soldiers were killed.
The Chinese and Indian military have been having peace talks, most
recently at the ministerial level on Friday on the sidelines of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense ministers’ meeting,
with the meeting lasting over two hours. The peace talks have
not gone well, and they belie what's actually happening on the
ground.
What's happening on the ground is that Indians apparently scored a
major tactical victory two days ago. Both China and India have been
building up troops. But India last week executed a stealth night-time
operation to claim strategic outposts. Thousands of soldiers climbed
up mountain peaks for about six hours during the night to claim the
vantage points along the south bank of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake
under dispute. According to the Indians, this tactical move gives
them the high ground and a clear view of enemy troop movements in
disputed territory.
According to Chinese state media: "India bears full responsibility for
the current China-India border tensions and China's military is fully
determined, capable and confident to safeguard China's sovereignty and
territorial integrity."
Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International
Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, expects the
Indians to have to give up without a fight:
<QUOTE>"By the end of September, winter will have arrived in
the Ladakh region where temperatures could fall to minus 25
degrees, and India has deployed about 40,000 troops in the
region. This is far beyond its logistics capability, and if the
tension remained unresolved, the Indian military could see
non-combat casualties."<END QUOTE>
The conflict has spilled over into the economic area. India has
limited Chinese investments, is tightening scrutiny on vasas, is
blocking Huawei Technologies Co. out of 5G networks, and is
banning numerous Chinese mobile phone apps.
Some analysts are calling the current India-China relations in Ladakh
the most dangerous in decades. Both sides are massing troops, and if
it's really true that the Indian troops cannot tolerate the low winter
temperatures, then they'll have to either strike or retreat. The
winter months may bring a turning point.
****
**** Comments by Chinese analysts in the media
****
The Chinese communists have not admitted either their plans or
intentions in their mass military buildup in Ladakh. However, Antara
Ghosal Singh, a Chinese strategy expert at the Delhi Policy Group, has
done an analysis of commentary by the Chinese strategic community on
the situation. They all blame the Indians for the hostilities, and
give various reasons for they think that the Indians are doing this.
The following are some of the main points:
- The Indians want leverage in future negotiations over the
South China Sea.
- India is signalling that if a conflict occurs on the border, then
it may resort to retaliation against China at sea by targeting China's
oil and gas transport vessels, "thereby, urging the Chinese government
to take proper countermeasures to deal with the disturbances at the
sea."
- India is working at the behest of the United States, particularly
since there may be a US-China military showdown before the US
elections.
- More specifically, India and the Americans have reached a
behind-the-scenes deal that the latter will build up pressure on
China's eastern and southern fronts, India will activate the western
front, so as to force China to take action under unfavorable terms,
forced to fight on both sides.
- Since the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic began, "India has decided to
stand with the United States in the great power
competition."
Many in China are fuming over India's tactical victory, and for its
"audacity" to wave a Tibetan "Snow Mountan Lion Flag" at the
confrontation site, the video of which went viral in the Chinese
social media. Chinese social media space has been buzzing with calls
for an "appropriate counterattack."
Sources:
- India / China’s PLA in race to reach the green line in Ladakh (Hindustan Times, 5-Sep-2020)
- 'Have No Doubt...': India Warns China Against 'Aggressive Behaviour' in First Political Meet After Border Flare-Up (News18, India, 5-Sep-2020)
- India / Rajnath Singh, China Defence Minister Meet In Moscow Amid Ladakh Tensions (New Delhi TV, 5-Sep-2020)
- New Delhi shows positive attitude, frontline Indian troops may remain over winter: expert (Global Times, Beijing, 5-Sep-2020)
- India / Chinese Chatter: What strategic experts from the other side think about Ladakh standoff (India Today, 5-Sep-2020)
- Captured Strategic Outposts in Stealth Move Against China (Bloomberg, 2-Sep-2020)
- India-China Dispute: Army chief reviews operational preparedness in Ladakh (Money Control, India, 3-Sep-2020)
- Indian and Chinese troops once again engaged in a confrontation on the south bank of Pangong Tso a few days ago. (PTI) (India Today, 2-Sep-2020)
- 1962-2020: How US Played a Role in Escalating Indo-China Conflict (The Quint, 18-Jun-2020)
- Nuclear / Why India and China haven’t used the ‘N’ word throughout the Ladakh conflict (The Print, India, 3-Aug-2020)
- India / China controls 1,000 sq. km of area in Ladakh (The Hindu, 1-Sep-2020)
- India-China Tensions Spike in the Himalayas (Diplomat, 5-Sep-2020)
- India steps up scrutiny of Chinese influence group amid Ladakh border conflict (Business Today, India, 4-Sep-2020)
Related Articles:
- Both India and China reinforce armies in Ladakh, as China makes new claim (25-Jun-2020)
- Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China (19-Jun-2020)
- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh (13-Jun-2020)
- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China (31-Mar-2018)
- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau (19-Dec-2017)
- Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff (24-Sep-2017)
- India and China battle for strategic influence in the Indian Ocean (18-Mar-2015)
- Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable? (17-May-2020)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Ladakh, Galwan Valley,
Line of Actual Control, LAC, Pangong Tso, Hu Zhiyong,
Antara Ghosal Singh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
