09-11-2020, 09:12 PM
*** 12-Sep-20 World View -- New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy
****
![[Image: g200911b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200911b.jpg)
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas was not included in Friday's peace agreement (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump has mediated another peace agreement, this
time between Israel and Bahrain, following the peace agreement one
month ago between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Once
again, the agreement is being described as "historic."
Bahrain will participate in what will now be a three-way signing
ceremony at the White House Tuesday with Israel and the United Arab
Emirates. Trump explained the peace agreements happened because "Even
great warriors get tired of fighting, and they’re tired of fighting."
He suggested that this was just the next step on the road to peace
deal for the entire Mideast. He said that other countries are
considering signing peace agreements as well. He didn't name
countries, but Morocco, Kuwait and Oman are considered possible
candidates.
Those are all small kingdoms. It's not expected that Saudi Arabia
would join the countries normalizing relations with Israel, even
though Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) might consider
doing so, since his father King Salman is opposed to any such
recognition until the Palestinian issue is settled.
However, it's believed that UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with
Israel with the approval of MBS. MBS has supported the agreements
by permitting Israeli planes to fly over Saudi air space for the
first time.
Historically, this is the fourth peace agreement between Israel and an
Arab country since Israel was created in 1948. In 1979, Egypt and
Israel signed a peace agreement between the two countries, in 1994,
Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel, and a month ago, UAE
signed a peace agreement. Thus Bahrain is the fourth country to take
this step.
****
**** Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective
****
Long-time readers know that I've reported on and mocked numerous
proposed peace agreements. Every president has a plan for Mideast
peace based on a "two-state solution" -- Israel and Palestine,
side-by-side in peace. Just think about that. On what planet could
Israel and Palestine exist side-by-side in peace?
On May 1, 2003, I posted an article predicting that President George
Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" peace plan would fail, because the
Jews and the Palestinians would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war the
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. (Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)) The most recent was President Trump's
"Deal of the Century" ( Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
).
When you're trying to do a Generational Dynamics analysis of a situation,
you have to analyze what the people want, not what the leaders want.
Bahrain and UAE are countries far away from Israel, and people probably
couldn't care less whether a peace deal is agreed or not. Generally
speaking, they're more concerned about Iran than Israel.
But the Palestinian people of course do care. So the Palestinian
Authority leaders on Friday strongly condemned Bahrain's decision as a
"betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Palestinian issue."
They said:
<QUOTE>"[The Bahraini decision would] support the
legalization of the cruel crimes of the Israeli occupation against
our Palestinian people at a time when the occupation state is
continuing to control the Palestinian lands and annex them by
military force, is working toward Judaizing Jerusalem and
controlling the Islamic and Christian holy sites and is committing
crimes against the Palestinian people."<END QUOTE>
So now suppose that the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, who is 84
years old, decided to sign a meaningful peace agreement with Israel.
He would either be shot dead by his own advisers, or else beaten to
death by Palestinian mobs. Remember that the average age in the West
Bank and Gaza is about 20 years old, and 20 year old children will not
care about a peace agreement that an 84 year old fossil signs.
So the point is that these "historic" agreements are just pieces of
paper, signed by aging leaders, with no relevance to the vast majority
of the population. The peace treaties are nice, but it's the young
people in that majority that are going to determine what happens, and
Generational Dynamics predicts that it will be war.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Bahrain,
United Arab Emirates, UAE,
ning peace agreements as well. He didn't name
Morocco, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy
- Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective
****
**** New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy
****
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas was not included in Friday's peace agreement (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump has mediated another peace agreement, this
time between Israel and Bahrain, following the peace agreement one
month ago between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Once
again, the agreement is being described as "historic."
Bahrain will participate in what will now be a three-way signing
ceremony at the White House Tuesday with Israel and the United Arab
Emirates. Trump explained the peace agreements happened because "Even
great warriors get tired of fighting, and they’re tired of fighting."
He suggested that this was just the next step on the road to peace
deal for the entire Mideast. He said that other countries are
considering signing peace agreements as well. He didn't name
countries, but Morocco, Kuwait and Oman are considered possible
candidates.
Those are all small kingdoms. It's not expected that Saudi Arabia
would join the countries normalizing relations with Israel, even
though Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) might consider
doing so, since his father King Salman is opposed to any such
recognition until the Palestinian issue is settled.
However, it's believed that UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with
Israel with the approval of MBS. MBS has supported the agreements
by permitting Israeli planes to fly over Saudi air space for the
first time.
Historically, this is the fourth peace agreement between Israel and an
Arab country since Israel was created in 1948. In 1979, Egypt and
Israel signed a peace agreement between the two countries, in 1994,
Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel, and a month ago, UAE
signed a peace agreement. Thus Bahrain is the fourth country to take
this step.
****
**** Mideast peace continues to be a fantasy objective
****
Long-time readers know that I've reported on and mocked numerous
proposed peace agreements. Every president has a plan for Mideast
peace based on a "two-state solution" -- Israel and Palestine,
side-by-side in peace. Just think about that. On what planet could
Israel and Palestine exist side-by-side in peace?
On May 1, 2003, I posted an article predicting that President George
Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" peace plan would fail, because the
Jews and the Palestinians would be re-fighting the bloody 1948 war the
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. (Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)) The most recent was President Trump's
"Deal of the Century" ( Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
).
When you're trying to do a Generational Dynamics analysis of a situation,
you have to analyze what the people want, not what the leaders want.
Bahrain and UAE are countries far away from Israel, and people probably
couldn't care less whether a peace deal is agreed or not. Generally
speaking, they're more concerned about Iran than Israel.
But the Palestinian people of course do care. So the Palestinian
Authority leaders on Friday strongly condemned Bahrain's decision as a
"betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Palestinian issue."
They said:
<QUOTE>"[The Bahraini decision would] support the
legalization of the cruel crimes of the Israeli occupation against
our Palestinian people at a time when the occupation state is
continuing to control the Palestinian lands and annex them by
military force, is working toward Judaizing Jerusalem and
controlling the Islamic and Christian holy sites and is committing
crimes against the Palestinian people."<END QUOTE>
So now suppose that the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, who is 84
years old, decided to sign a meaningful peace agreement with Israel.
He would either be shot dead by his own advisers, or else beaten to
death by Palestinian mobs. Remember that the average age in the West
Bank and Gaza is about 20 years old, and 20 year old children will not
care about a peace agreement that an 84 year old fossil signs.
So the point is that these "historic" agreements are just pieces of
paper, signed by aging leaders, with no relevance to the vast majority
of the population. The peace treaties are nice, but it's the young
people in that majority that are going to determine what happens, and
Generational Dynamics predicts that it will be war.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.
Sources:
- Trump announces Bahrain, Israel will normalize relations (ABC News, 11-Sep-2020)
- Iranian official says Bahrain-Israel normalisation deal a great betrayal (Reuters, 11-Sep-2020)
- Bahrain to normalise ties with Israel, Donald Trump announces (AP, 11-Sep-2020)
- Israel, Bahrain to Normalize Relations in Another Blow to (Newsweek, 11-Sep-2020)
- Bahrain-Israel normalisation shows peace is way to Palestinian rights - official (Reuters, 11-Sep-2020)
- Bahrain follows Emirates and normalizes ties with Israel (CNBC, 11-Sep-2020)
- Bahrain-Israel deal is ‘spectacular’ development for ‘more peaceful world,' says White House spokesperson (Fox News, 11-Sep-2020)
- Palestinians strongly condemn Israel-Bahrain deal, withdraw ambassador (Jerusalem Post, 11-Sep-2020)
- PA and Hamas condemn Israel-Bahrain deal (Israel National News, 11-Sep-2020)
- Egypt's Sisi says appreciates 'important step' of Israel, Bahrain establishing diplomatic ties (Reuters, 11-Sep-2020)
- Bahrain King Reiterates Necessity for Peace Based on Two State Solution After Israel Normalization Agreement (US News, 11-Sep-2020)
Related Articles:
- Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement (14-Aug-2020)
- Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
- Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Bahrain,
United Arab Emirates, UAE,
ning peace agreements as well. He didn't name
Morocco, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
